WREX.com - Rockford's News Leader - 13 Weather Authority Blog

2009-02-27T15:37:00.002-06:00

Spring storms here, snow up north

2009-02-26T15:26:00.004-06:00

This picture from Julie Kemnitz in Fond du Lac, Wisconsin comes to us via Fox11 in Green Bay. Julie reported that the snowflakes were as big as her hands!

Also, check out the heavy snow falling on WGBA-TV's live weathercams. (Click for larger image)

While our temperatures don't have to fall much before we transition over to snow, it appears this will come as the precipitation winds down. Still some thunderstorms likely for the late-afternoon and early evening.

Soggy Situation Soon

2009-02-26T08:04:00.012-06:00

Update 12:30pm = DVN issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Carroll, Jo Daviess, Stephenson [IL] till 1:00 PM due to the threat of small hail.
DVN: Elizabeth [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports HAIL of pea size (E0.25 INCH) at 12:42 PM -- smaller than pea size hail covering the ground.
DVN: Hanover [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports HAIL of penny size (E0.75 INCH) at 12:31 PM

Update 12:15pm = Dense Fog Advisories have been posted for this afternoon for Whiteside, Ogle, Lee, and DeKalb County. As you can see from the noon observations, visibilities have dropped below 1 mile in these locations and the fog is thickening up a bit in the extreme northern Illinois counties.

Update 11:30am = Radar indicating a storm cell capable of producing penny sized hail just west of the Mississippi River in Clinton and Jackson County. This cell is headed up into Jo Daviess County shortly after noon. No spotter reports of hail from this thunderstorm just yet.

Update 11:15am = Latest model guidance still has us in for a fairly steady rainfall between now and 9pm. After that the precipitation will begin to wind down with just a little light snow to wrap things up.

Update 10:45am = The Storm Prediction Center has updated the slight risk for severe weather today and it is as close to us as I-80. There is a potential for marginal severe weather as close by as the Quad Cities with small hail being the main threat. With strong thunderstorms possible to the south of us and winter storm warnings running for northern Wisconsin, this shows you just how dynamic this system is.

Original Post = As of 8am the skies are completely dry across the Stateline and temperatures in all locations are either at or above the freezing mark. Road conditions throughout the morning look pretty good. Light rain is starting to develop in eastern Iowa and it should swing our way during the late morning hours. This afternoon is when the rain is going to intensify. All of our models our pointing towards a soaking rain of 0.5" to 1" of liquid by tonight. The only counties in our viewing area under any advisories are in southern Wisconsin and this includes Rock and Walworth County. These two counties will be placed under a Flood Watch from 3pm this afternoon through late tonight due to the potential for lots of rain in a short amount of time. A brief changeover into snow could occur between 9pm-1am, but I don't expect any significant accumulations. Snow totals should stay below 1/4".

I am a little concerned about road conditions overnight. There is going to be a lot of liquid laying around when the cold front pushes through and sends our temperatures below 32° in a hurry. This could create a bit of a flash freezing effect, which could create some slick and slippery conditions. I expect the somewhat icy conditions to pop up after midnight when our airmass drops below the freezing mark. Just something to keep in mind as you head out early Friday morning. -ADAM

Artillery for Today?

2009-02-26T07:08:00.003-06:00

This was the picture that I used for this morning's weather quiz. If you haven't seen anything like this before, it is an aerodynamic umbrella known as the Senz Umbrella. This umbrella is said to withstand strong winds and never invert. Also, it states that the extra long tail keeps the rain from trickling down onto your back. Here is the link to the Senz Umbrella if you are interested in equipping yourself with something like this. Too bad they can't rush a shipment of these for today... we could use some this afternoon! -ADAM

Out with the old, in with the new

2009-02-25T21:27:00.002-06:00

First of all, let me say "Thank you!" to the dozens of people who came to this year's storm spotting seminar at the Chicago/Rockford Int'l Airport tonight. What a wonderful group and terrific information from our friends Jim and Tim at the NWS Romeoville. Please don't forget that we can also get your reports into the NWS in an instant because WREX-TV has a live link to all NWS offices during severe weather events.

Next, I'd like to welcome you to our new weather blog Thursday. We have been training and tweaking the new look and we hope to have it up and running sometime during the afternoon...and with ice, thunderstorms, and snow in the forecast, it should be a good day to get it started! As always we welcome your input and comments as we move into the future.

Finally, another word of thanks because you have helped us make this blog so successful. If we didn't get so many wonderful comments every day, it would be harder for us to keep it going. So, here we go!

Business First, Birthday Wish Second

2009-02-25T11:22:00.005-06:00

The storm system set to move in on Thursday looks pretty juicy. Large amounts of snow are on tap for locations north of a line from Mason City, IA to Madison, WI. We will be on the warm side of this system meaning that at least 90% of the precipitation is going to fall in the liquid form. HPC is still believing that there is the potential for a few rain gauges across the Stateline to tally 1" of liquid from this disturbance. A little sleet is possible initially with a little snow possible on the backside of this system. Neither will amount to much at all.

Also, one side note. I wanted to publicly wish my mother a very happy birthday! She is an extremely active woman and is pretty amazing. Here is a picture of us taken on Valentine's Day overlooking the Mississippi River at Chestnut Mountain. What better way to celebrate Valentine's Day than skiing with your mother, right? Although... I have no clue where I got my height from. -ADAM

Consolidating ATC Meteorologists: good or bad idea?

2009-02-24T16:29:00.004-06:00

ATLANTA (AP) - Air traffic controllers say a proposal to consolidate dozens of meteorologists around the nation to two centers could hurt effective weather forecasting. The Federal Aviation Administration is considering consolidating the 84 meteorologists serving at 21 air centers across the nation to major centers in Maryland and Kansas City, Mo. The FAA says it is looking at ways to cut costs and use the best technology available. Critics say the plan will make it difficult for meteorologists to have knowledge of local weather patterns and expertise that is crucial to flight crews. The FAA says there is no final proposal yet. Yesterday, the agency extended the time to respond to the proposal 30 days.

Storm spotting class Wednesday night

2009-02-24T15:33:00.003-06:00

Time for another reminder that the Rockford metro's storm spotter training course is tomorrow. This is the first year for it to fall during the week so I hope everyone has the opportunity to participate.

If you're wondering where the facility is located, click on the map below. When you are looking at the front of the Chicago/Rockford Int'l terminal, the building is to the right. The left side of the building says "Int'l Arrivals" and the left is the Public Safety Building. There should be plenty of free parking in the lot right in front. See you tomorrow night! If you have any questions, let us know at weather@wrex.com.

Surprisingly, this wasn't bound for Mars

2009-02-24T11:39:00.004-06:00

A research satellite sent up into space to study how much carbon dioxide is absorbed by specific things on the planet... didn't quite reach its destination.

It didn't manage to get into orbit, so gravity pulled it right back down into the drink.

You can read about it here.

Weather Channel founder believes global warming is a "hoax"

2009-02-23T15:55:00.006-06:00

I love the science of debate and debating science but it always flabbergasts me when people believe that science is a cut and dry thing.

Take broadcasting legend John Coleman for example. He was one of the founders of The Weather Channel and worked for many years in Chicago TV. Now he's the loudest disbeliever of global climate change.

He's never been secretive when it comes to his stance against global warming but now he is calling the whole notion a "hoax...bad science...greatest scam in history." Read his article by clicking here.

He believes that global warming (or climate change) is all bad science. The problem with his stance is the fact that he cites so many reasons why global warming should NOT exist when all he really needs to do is look at this chart.

The real bone I have to pick with this far right point of view is: Why are we arguing about whether climate change exists when it is obvious that our atmosphere is and has always been in a state of constant flux? Any environmentalist, meteorologist, or climatologist knows that. What we should be arguing about is what to do to prevent any change that will have an impact on our planet. And it doesn't matter if you want to talk about global warming or global cooling. Because we are in the midst of such a dramatic change we owe it to ourselves to figure it out instead of calling it a hoax and implying that our high gas prices are a result of environmentalists, as Coleman insists. He also says that government subsidized ethanol production has caused food prices to rise. I would pay someone $50 to find me highly regarded research that supports this.

When it comes to climate change let's work together to figure it out instead of decisively knocking the truth.

Do I know the impact each of us has on our environment? No. Do I think we should be more mindful of our atmosphere and what we put in it? Absolutely. Doing nothing is about as absurd as John Coleman is.

Discovering things on the visible satellite picture

2009-02-23T14:33:00.003-06:00

I love looking at the visible satellite on clear days during the winter. It's easy to spot snowcover, lakes, rivers, cities, and even forests! Can you spot anything that I didn't label?

Friendly reminder

2009-02-23T13:19:00.001-06:00

NWS spotter training in Rockford is this Wednesday at 6:30pm in the Public Safety Building at the Airport.

The full list of dates of spotter training sessions in our area is here!

Quiet, but cold

2009-02-22T17:26:00.003-06:00

A big ol' dome of high pressure is sliding to the southeast out of Canada. Tonight, that high pressure will add in some ingredients for a frigid night: a mostly clear sky and light winds. Add in our fresh snowpack, and it's going to be a morning that you'll definitely need to bundle up! Temperatures will be in the single digits by the time you get up in the morning. Afternoon highs will manage to get into the lower to middle 20s, thanks to plenty of sunshine.

This same high pressure will help warm us up in a couple days, though. Southerly winds will kick in Monday night, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Cloudcover will start to increase on Tuesday with highs in the middle 30s... and lower 40s on Wednesday. This will certainly take a bite into our new snowpack!

60° in two weeks

2009-02-22T12:14:00.008-06:00

Since temperatures today will top out 10-15° shy of where we should be, I decided to let you in on some good news! Don't let me get you confused though. This is not for this upcoming week, but for the one following. There are now many signs that point in the direction of a major warm up...perhaps even a "spring thaw." A week from Thursday looks so warm, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 60° temperature or two (give or take a few days).

March is less than a week away and winter is in its final month. We will look for these teasers to come every 2-3 weeks as the jet stream tries to establish itself farther north (which in turn brings back the warmer weather).

So, even if you're shivering in your boots today just focus on the warmth that will be here in no time.

2009-02-21T15:14:00.015-06:00

Here are snowfall reports from our bloggers and storm spotters:

(9:18:37 PM) nwsbot: LOT: South Beloit [Winnebago Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M5.8 INCH at 09:00 PM CST -- relayed by wrex-tv

(9:18:36 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Machesney Park [Winnebago Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M4.8 INCH at 09:00 PM CST -- relayed by wrex-tv

(5:31:38 PM) nwsbot: DVN: 4 Sse Winslow [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.0 INCH at 05:30 PM CST -- snow now blowing and drifting.

(6:15:06 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Rockford Airport [Winnebago Co, IL] official nws obs reports SNOW of M4.8 INCH at 06:00 PM CST -- storm total.

(5:44:22 PM) nwsbot: LOT: 2 N Winnebago [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of M5.2 INCH at 05:40 PM CST -- at wrex studio

(5:31:38 PM) nwsbot: DVN: 4 Sse Winslow [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.0 INCH at 05:30 PM CST -- snow now blowing and drifting.

(5:21:07 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Belvidere [Boone Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.9 INCH at 05:00 PM CST -- storm total.

(5:14:51 PM) nwsbot: LOT: 3 Wnw Bull Valley [Mchenry Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.6 INCH at 05:00 PM CST --

(4:55:19 PM) nwsbot: DVN: Mount Carroll [Carroll Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.1 INCH at 04:54 PM CST -- storm total

(4:24:19 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Loves Park [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.0 INCH at 04:00 PM CST --

(3:37:55 PM) nwsbot: MKX: Janesville [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.7 INCH at 03:33 PM CST --

(2/21/2009 2:21:57 PM) nwsbot: MKX: Beloit [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.1 INCH at 02:00 PM CST --

(2/21/2009 2:04:57 PM) nwsbot: MKX: Lake Geneva [Walworth Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.0 INCH at 01:59 PM CST --

(2/21/2009 2:04:57 PM) nwsbot: MKX: Orfordville [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.0 INCH at 01:57 PM CST --

(2/21/2009 2:03:27 PM) nwsbot: DVN: Hanover [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of E3.5 INCH at 02:00 PM CST -- still snowing.

(2/21/2009 1:34:59 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Belvidere [Boone Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.9 INCH at 01:15 PM CST -- blowing and drifting snow. snow covered roads.

(2/21/2009 1:24:49 PM) nwsbot: DVN: Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.5 INCH at 01:22 PM CST -- light snow continues.

(2/21/2009 12:29:23 PM) nwsbot: MKX: Janesville [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.4 INCH at 12:25 PM CST --

(2/21/2009 12:29:23 PM) nwsbot: MKX: 9 Wnw Beloit [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports HEAVY SNOW of M6.0 INCH at 12:18 PM CST --

(2/21/2009 12:26:39 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Rockford Airport [Winnebago Co, IL] official nws obs reports SNOW of M3.9 INCH at 12:00 PM CST -- at rockford airport the observation at 1200 pm, 2.4 inches of snow fell from 6 am to 12 pm for a storm total so far of 3.9 inches.

2009-02-20T16:33:00.008-06:00

Saturday 2:20pm - Snowfall is wrapping up now. Will be updating the blog with snowfall totals by 4pm today. Thanks for submitting your report!

Saturday 11:03am - It appears that the accumulating snow is wrapping up as expected. Will be posting snowfall totals early this afternoon. Still keep in mind that roadways will be slippery and snowpacked through the mid to late afternoon as road crews continue their work.

9:45pm - Going forecast seems pretty good at this point. If anything models may have overdone the available moisture. While I'm not deviating from my 5 inch gut feeling, I am lowering the forecast grids to 3-6 inches...just due to the lack of snow intensification thus far. -ES

9:20pm - We have added a simple button that you can click to send us storm reports. During severe weather events we always welcome your input and reports as we can't be everywhere all the time. Thanks in advance! -ES

4:33pm - All counties within the WREX coverage area are now under a Winter Storm Warning.

Snow will begin to accumulate shortly after midnight and continue for much of Saturday. Right now I am looking for the highest totals to be right along the Illinois/Wisconsin stateline where 6-7 inches of snow seem reasonable. For the Rockford metro, I anticipate 5-6 inches on average. Lesser amounts will fall along the I-88 corridor, points southward.

Snow will taper to flurries around noon Saturday bringing this event to an end. While it will be one of the biggest snows we've seen in a month or two, it will come at a time when few of us need to travel. If you must head out, use extra caution and allow plenty of time. And only travel with a fully-charged cell phone!

Watch Upgraded to a Warning

2009-02-20T07:12:00.006-06:00

Update 10:45am = The latest round of data has no curveballs in it. All indications are still bringing the snow into the Stateline sometime between 8-10pm tonight. The heaviest snow should fall between 12-6am, which is good because it will allow most people to stay off the roads. During this timeframe we could easily see some bands set up that dump over an inch per hour. Some light snow could hang around through lunchtime on Saturday. The graphic to the left is from the GFS model and it's estimating approximately 0.25-0.30" of liquid to fall between midnight and noon Saturday. The snow to liquid ratio could be 15:1 or even as high as 20:1 due to the cold conditions in the atmosphere, which means the snow should fluff up quite efficiently.

Original Post = The Winter Storm Watch that was previously out for northern Illinois was upgraded this morning to a Winter Storm Warning. This means that the potentially heavy snow situation is looking quite likely. It will run from this evening through Saturday afternoon. The Milwaukee National Weather Service office hasn't decided yet on what it wants to do with the watch for southern Wisconsin. It could be upgraded to a warning or downgraded to an advisory. The 3-6" snow slot should still cover the majority of the Stateline viewing area. The lower end of the spectrum appears to align in the counties of Green, Rock, and Walworth. The higher end of that spectrum could cover a large chunk of northern Illinois. There is still even the possibility that a narrow band of slightly heavier snow could form somewhere near I-88.

I will have further analysis when the midday models come out between 10-11am. -ADAM

Winter weather on the way

2009-02-19T20:33:00.003-06:00

There's a Winter Storm Watch for our Illinois counties Friday night through Saturday. Our Wisconsin counties will likely not be put under this since they'll more likely be within that 3-6" range and not have anybody go above 6". Regardless, everybody is in for some snow Friday night and Saturday. As a matter of fact... this looks to be the most snow in one shot since January 9-10, when we had 6.5". (Since that particular event, we've had a grand total of 8.1" of snow.)

3-6" looks likely for the entire viewing area, but near/south of Highway 20, there is the chance of locally higher amounts. Unlike our last system, the heaviest snow will likely fall very near the track of the low. There will be quite a bit of energy to work with - even with it being just an Alberta Clipper. In fact, if things happen just right, some may experience snowfall rates in excess of 1" per hour. Obviously, it wouldn't take very long for the snow to stack up if that happened.

One of the challenges of snow forecasting is the possibility of narrow bands of heavier snow. We have no way of predicting exactly where they'll end up, but this is one of those systems that somebody could find themselves sitting under one of those and getting some very heavy snow.

Once the snow stops falling out of the clouds, it'll still be flying around. Temperatures will be cold enough to support fairly fluffy snow; with strong winds kicking in on Saturday, that snow will be blowing and drifting.

The good news in all this is that, at this time, it appears the snow won't really begin in earnest until the Friday evening basketball games have wrapped up. Of course, keep tabs on our forecast just in case things need to be adjusted.

Now here's something we hope you'll really like!

2009-02-19T17:32:00.001-06:00

Okay... so the kicker at the end of the 5pm newscast tonight mentioned the "shrimp on a treadmill" video. None of us had EVER seen it... so I present to you said video. Bonus: Benny Hill theme added.

Winter Storm Watch

2009-02-19T13:59:00.003-06:00

Update - 3:00pm: All Illinois counties under a Winter Storm Watch.

Some of our Illinois counties have been placed under a Winter Storm Watch for Friday night/Saturday.

More analysis this evening.

Last of the Bitterly Cold?

2009-02-19T09:14:00.003-06:00

The good news is that meteorological spring starts in less than 10 days. The bad news is that we've jumped into another cold spell. This morning I decided to dig up a statistic to show you that the future is promising.

I scanned through January, February, and March for the years of 2004 -2008. I counted the number of nights that we felt bitterly cold conditions. For this stat, I defined bitterly cold as temperatures below 10°. The five year average showed that we typically dropped into the single digits or lower almost ten times during the month of January. February wasn't a whole lot better with an average of 8.4 mornings with thermometers colder than 10°. The numbers fell significantly once we turned the page over to March. Over the past five years, we have only fallen into the single digits three times.

2009 started off with a frigid first month. We dropped below 10° in 20 of 31 days in January. Thus far in February we have hit this bitterly cold mark 5 times, but we could add at least a couple of days to that tally in the next week. Hopefully we can post a goose egg for the month of March, because I'm pretty sure we've had our fair share of the arctic this winter.

In conclusion, despite the teeth chattering cold today take heart knowing that mornings like today are becoming numbered this late in the season. -ADAM

A little this time... more the next?

2009-02-18T20:53:00.005-06:00

Thanks, bloggers, for your help with reports this evening. I'm still hearing reports of nasty road conditions. Definitely be careful out there tonight if you're driving... I know I'll be easing up on the gas pedal tonight when I leave.

Tomorrow is going to be just downright cold... highs near 20° and strong northwest winds will make for a frigid mid-February day. But let's look ahead to Friday night, shall we?

A potent clipper will make its way through the Midwest, bringing with it the potential for some pretty decent snowfall totals. Here's an assortment of them... certainly some variation, but they're all showing somebody getting at least 6" of snow out of this. We'll try to pin down the details of it tomorrow... but for now, this is some of what we're looking at.

Snow accumulations

2009-02-18T16:15:00.001-06:00

Anybody getting anything other than on the grass?

Winds Keep Kicking

2009-02-18T11:28:00.005-06:00

Old Man Winter isn't done yet. He will be huffing and puffing for the next 36 hours. Winds have strengthened significantly in the last couple of hours and they won't weaken again until Thursday night. The direction and speed of these winds will stay pretty consistent. We are locked into a northwest wind that is bringing in a much colder airmass in a hurry. Wind chills tonight could drop below zero in a few locations. Wind chills tomorrow won't make it out of the single digits. -ADAM

Thick Fog this Morning

2009-02-18T04:10:00.006-06:00

Update 8am = Visibilities have improved significantly. Observations all across the Stateline are now above 1 mile.

Original Post = After driving from east to west across Winnebago County, I can tell you that the surface of the roads is actually pretty good, but visibilities are awful. The fog is quite dense and I can confirm the 1/8 of a mile visibility right now at the Rockford Int'l Airport. I couldn't see much farther than 20 yards in front of my car. The fog will stay quite thick through the mid morning hours. Drive carefully and courteously! -ADAM

Winter's far from over!

2009-02-17T22:28:00.003-06:00

Wednesday's system will be quite small with respect to winter storms. Most areas will get by with a slushy dusting with an inch or two possible, especially along and north of the stateline.

There are some signs that a more potent storm may move down out of the plains for Friday night and Saturday. This one bears watching as the cold air is already in place...we may get a few more inches on the ground just in time for the weekend.

Heaviest Snow to the North

2009-02-17T11:03:00.003-06:00

Winter weather advisories will be running tonight and tomorrow for the majority of Wisconsin, but it does not include Green, Rock, or Walworth County. These counties highlighted in light blue could shovel between 3 and 6 inches of snow. I slightly tweaked Justin's snowfall forecast from last night by pushing the contours northward by about 40 miles. The most recent update is on the right hand side of the screen. This puts most of the Stateline in the 1-3" range with most spots along I-88 receiving less than an inch.

The reasoning for the low snow totals goes like this. The center of spin is going to be passing almost directly overhead. Our biggest snows occur when low pressure slides through central Illinois, but this one will travel pretty close to I-88. That means that there should be enough warm air wrapped into this system tonight to cause a mixture of rain and sleet as well as some snow. Remember that anytime we witness a period of rain or sleet it zaps the potential amount of moisture in the atmosphere significantly.

Further justification comes from the fact that the heaviest precipitation typically falls ahead of or just north of low pressure. By the time our precipitation changes into all snow the low will have pulled off to the east. Wrap around snow is quite likely tomorrow, but we normally don't get dumped on with wrap around precipitation. -ADAM

2009 Spotter Training schedule

2009-02-16T21:06:00.003-06:00

For those of you interested in becoming a trained weather spotter for the National Weather Service, here are the dates and locations for sessions in our area. If you have attended a session before, you're asked to attend at least once every two years.

Feb 19: DeKalb, NIU (Faraday West 200), 7:00pm
Feb 25: Rockford, Chi-Rkfd Airport (Public Safety Bldg), 6:30pm (CoCoRaHS info afterwards)
Mar 4: Lanark, Fire Station, 6:30pm
Mar 9: Galena Territory, Territory Property Owner's Assoc., 6:30pm
Mar 11: Elkhorn, Walworth Co. Health & Human Services Bldg, 1:30pm
Mar 11: Elkhorn, Walworth Co. Health & Human Services Bldg, 6:30pm
Mar 24: Erie, Fire Station, 6:30pm
Mar 25: Dixon, Lee County Public Safety Bldg, 7:00pm
Mar 26: Warren, Fire Station, 6:30pm
Mar 26: Crystal Lake, McHenry Comm. College Auditorium, 7:00pm
Mar 30: Janesville, Rock Co. Health Care Center Auditorium, 1:00pm
Mar 30: Beloit, Fire Survive Alive House, 6:30pm
Mar 31: Monroe, Public Library, 12:30pm
Mar 31: Freeport, Highland Comm. College (Bldg H, Room 201), 1:30pm
Mar 31: Brodhead, Fire Station, 6:30pm
Mar 31: Freeport, Highland Comm. College (Bldg H, Room 201), 7:00pm

Before attending a spotter training session, confirm that it is still on as scheduled. Any changes to spotter training schedules will be at the following websites...
Illinois viewers, check here and here. Wisconsin viewers, check here.

Sessions typically last about two hours. Topics cover what types of information the National Weather Service wants to receive during severe weather, and how to identify important severe weather phenomena. (These are not sessions on how to storm chase; they are sessions on how you can provide important, timely, and accurate severe weather information that will aid in the protection of life and property.)

Slowly making sense

2009-02-16T19:28:00.003-06:00

Despite remaining model discrepancies, I decided I had enough confidence to have a somewhat preliminary snowfall forecast.

The trend seems to be that the greatest snowfall will lie in central/southern Wisconsin where temperatures will be supportive of snow for the longest time. Wraparound snow will also lead to somewhat higher accumulations, too.

Now, there's still a chance (and probably a pretty good chance) that this snowfall forecast will be adjusted a bit once we're able get a better feel for how this whole thing is going to evolve. The good news is that the disturbance has been over land for a little while now, so the networks of weather instruments are getting some data on it. As I mentioned last night, that'll help our computer models understand things a little better.

I can't help thinking that the low will edge closer to the where the snowcover/no snowcover is located... which would be a slightly more northerly track. That would allow for the swath of heaviest snow to remain north.

We'll adjust this forecast as necessary, of course. This is definitely a complex, challenging forecast... one that I'm sure Eric would rather not be welcomed back to! :)

Radiosonde Uproar

2009-02-16T09:35:00.003-06:00

A weather balloon was recently mistaken for a bomb. Here is the article about the scare in Massachusetts.

Midweek mess

2009-02-15T18:09:00.004-06:00

Every so often, we meteorologists have forecasts that make us want to pound our heads against the nearest wall. The weather for the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe this week is one of those situations...

The piece of energy that's going to cause our wintry weather isn't yet over land, so our computer models have very little data to use to try to depict how this is going to evolve. The NAM model moves the low through much later than the GFS model... in addition, the path of the low isn't the same, either.

There's a huge amount of uncertainty in the details of this forecast. The generalities, at this point, seem to be ironed out, at least: I expect a wintry mix to develop late Tuesday, lasting into Tuesday night. It may change completely over to rain; the chance of that happening increases the farther south you go. Then on Wednesday, the mix/rain turns over to all snow, along with gusty winds.

However, how much snow any location receives is pretty much completely up in the air at this point. Model output has been seemingly random even in the two most recent model runs; I've seen model output as low as about 2" and as high as 10". Obviously, that sort of range doesn't make me overly confident in how much snow we'll get. We wouldn't be putting out any snowfall forecast maps yet, anyway, but it goes to show how this whole midweek weather situation isn't an easy one to figure out.

We'll be focusing on a few things in determining the forecast this week... in particular, the temperatures at the surface up to about a mile high in the atmosphere. We'll be close to that oh-so-wonderful freezing mark in that entire layer... and a change of a couple degrees could play a big role in who receives what type of precipitation. Also, a more northerly low track would usher in warmer air and decrease the chance of heavier snow... but a southerly track would allow cooler air to prevail, leading to greater snowfall.

Weather to love!

2009-02-14T20:06:00.006-06:00

... At least for the next couple of days, anyway. Today, we had plenty of sunshine... tomorrow, plenty of sunshine... Monday, plenty of sunshine...

Then things change.

And, go figure, the change isn't an easy one to pin down. The midweek system will take a west-east path similar to last nights. However, it looks to farther north with a lot more "oomph" to it. With a more northerly track, it will pull in warm air. Temperatures warm enough, in fact, for there to be at least a rain/snow mix, if not all rain, for part of this event. Then, as the low pulls away, cold air filters back in, changing precipitation back over to all snow, along with breezy conditions.

The big challenges at this point are 1) where the low will track, 2) how much warm air will be pulled northward, and 3) how quickly or slowly will cold air change the precip to snow.

Here are the last four runs of the GFS computer model, valid at 6pm Wednesday. The "L" in the Midwest depicts the position of the low at that time, and the green and blue swaths indicate precipitation totals from noon until 6pm Wednesday. Anything within the blue dashes, in general, is snow; anything that's past that last blue dash, especially in red dashes, is rain. You can see that there are some big variations from run to run.

Right now, I can't buy into a scenario in which we get a large amount of snow. The possibility exists for that to happen, but since it really looks as though we'll have rain for at least part of this event, that will cut heavily into accumulations. As always, we'll have updates on this.

On a different note, one of my colleagues and mentors, Erik Maitland, will be the focus of the first part of Dateline NBC at 6pm tomorrow (Sunday) on WREX. He was a meteorologist at KWQC a few years back when he was doing the weather live at a fair when breaking news happened right behind him... to see the full story, you'll just have to watch the show.

Cupid Spreading some Snow

2009-02-13T20:00:00.011-06:00

Add your snow reports in the comments section...
Stockton [Jo Daviess Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M3.0 INCH at 10:05 PM
Franklin Grove [Lee Co, IL] spotter reports 3/4" of snow at 9:55 PM
Winnebago [Winnebago Co, IL] 1.5" of snow at WREX-TV studios at 9:55 PM
2 E Galena [Jo Daviess Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M2.5 INCH at 9:40 PM -- Lots of accidents on US 20 with cars in ditches.
5 Nw Polo [Ogle Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M2.0 INCH at 09:30 PM
Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.0 INCH at 9:28 PM
Dubuque [Dubuque Co, IA] trained spotter reports SNOW of M1.9 INCH at 8:54 PM

We've got a wide swath of snow covering the Stateline right now. It took awhile for the atmosphere to saturate, but it has done so and now almost all observation sites are reporting light snow falling. Most of the measurements out of eastern Iowa have come back in with a wide range of 1-5". This system is weakening as it approaches, but we should still end up in the 1-3" slot that we posted yesterday.

Remember it doesn't take much snow to cause some slick spots. Roads will remain a little slippery the majority of the night. The snow appears to be done for the most part by 4am. Roads may remain damp during the morning hours, but by then our skies will be tranquil. -ADAM

Don't do this to your Valentine!

2009-02-13T14:25:00.003-06:00

We might not get a ton of snow overnight, but it should be enough to make a snowball or two. If you are still trying to plan something to do with your Valentine I suggest that you do not do this...

Tonight's snow

2009-02-13T04:22:00.003-06:00

Our snow-making low pressure is located in south-central Kansas and moving east-northeast. This track would take it near St. Louis - a path that is not conducive for heavy snow around here. In additional, all models suggest it will be weakening as it pushes eastward. Even the NAM computer model, which had been the most bullish on snowfall totals, has continued to fall in line with the other models. This is good, since Adam said last night that it was in agreement then, too.

In fact, the image in this post is of precipitation for this event (in liquid form). Around a tenth of an inch will yield only meager snowfall accumulations of 1-1.5"at the most... and pretty much everybody in our viewing area is at 0.10" or less. The farther north in the viewing area you're located, the less snow you'll receive. In addition, warmer ground temperatures and temperatures near freezing will allow most of the snow to go away in fairly short order, anyway.

---

Original post: I'm trimming the snowfall even further... looks like Rockford will have trouble even mustering up much more than an inch out of this one. Details later!

Latest for Friday Night's Snow

2009-02-12T21:36:00.005-06:00

Justin broke it down quite well earlier today. After checking the latest model guidance, it seems as though they are starting to come to the same solution once again. Early this morning the majority of the models were showing a weakening storm system by the time it reached us. Within the past hour though, even the NAM model (the one holding out) has come in line with causing a potent snow storm over Nebraska to fizzle out by the time it reaches the Stateline. The map to the right is from the GFS model for Saturday at 6am. If there was a closed low spinning over southern Indiana we'd be talking about plowing some serious snow, but it seems like the low completely gets phased out.

As you can see in my "Storm Specifics", if you are a long sleeper you may completely miss this event as it starts late Friday night and ends shortly after sunrise on Saturday. I slightly tweaked the snowfall forecast map and it is updated on the right side of the screen. Normally a system like this would be something you would say ho-hum to, but since we haven't seen any decent snow storms in almost a month it is fairly noteworthy. -ADAM

... Snow? What's that?

2009-02-12T09:19:00.003-06:00

It seems a little strange to be talking about snowfall accumulations. As Adam posted last night, the last time we had over half an inch of snow was about a month ago. Of course, the first snowmaker of note since that time is being a bit of a bear to forecast.

Until last night, our computer models were in surprisingly good agreement about a sizeable swath of significant snow across the Midwest, with a large area picking up in excess of 6". Things are looking somewhat less snowy now, though. The disturbance that will be responsible for providing the next bout of snow is over land and has been sampled by the network of weather instruments. Since the computer models have additional real data to use, they're able to do a better job.

That's at least somewhat helpful, and our computer models are (at this time) still in decent agreement about the path of the low pressure. However, they differ on how quickly it will weaken as it traverses the Midwest. The NAM model keeps the low going long enough that heavier snow falls, while the GFS has it weakening 12-18 hours sooner, which would lead to fairly small snowfall amounts. Based on the information we have at this time, I'm going with a widespread 1-3" snowfall with 3-6" near and south of I-88. There is the possibility that this will need to be nudged northward a bit due to the snowmelt we had (see Eric's post about the "baroclinic zone" from a little while ago).

I've included in this post the HPC's preferred low track, as well as their snowfall probabilities.

Of course, Adam will have more analysis this evening.

End of a Surreal Streak

2009-02-11T17:21:00.005-06:00

December was a wild month for snow and January started off in furious fashion, but then all of sudden it came to an abrupt halt. The last time we had a snow storm produce over half an inch of snow was way back on the 14th of January. Since then our temperatures have been on a wild ride from -25° on January 16th to 59° on February 10th. This streak of days with idle snow plows will come to an end by Valentine's Day. Much more analysis on our first real snowmaker in a month to be posted right here on the blog tomorrow. -ADAM

Brief rain break?

2009-02-11T09:45:00.003-06:00

Some of us may be able to avoid the raindrops for a little while over the next few hours. There's an opening in the shield of rain south of I-80, and that's heading our way. However, I don't believe it will last particularly long, as the radar trend shows the gap slowly filling back in.

The back edge of the precipitation will remain relatively close by through the afternoon, although it won't finally reach us until the low pressure pulls away later today.

Landspouts and tornadoes

2009-02-11T08:58:00.003-06:00

The quiz on the morning show involved a picture of a landspout. I believe I've mentioned on here what the difference is between a landspout and a "true" tornado, but since I said I'd talk about it on the blog, I'll go over it briefly once more. Tornadoes form when a broad portion of a thunderstorm is rotating (called the mesocyclone). Landspouts form from showers or thunderstorms that do not have existing rotation... what happens, essentially, is that some spin in the open air gets sucked upward into the cloud, forming a landspout. They form in a way very similar to that of waterspouts. Landspouts and waterspouts are technically classified as tornadoes, although the ways in which they form are very different.

Speaking of tornadoes, a severe weather outbreak occurred in the southern Plains yesterday. Lone Grove, Oklahoma, was battered by a half-mile wide tornado. Oklahoma City's KOCO has video of the destruction. Jeff Masters also discusses the storm in his weather blog; I'm sure he'll have additional insight tomorrow.

New Orleans: here I come!

2009-02-10T22:42:00.004-06:00

Hey bloggers! Just a heads up to mind Adam and Justin for a week as I head down to New Orleans to see what this thing called "Mardi Gras" is about.

Actually I've been there a few times before when I lived in East Texas, but this will be the first time since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. I am actually fulfilling a life-long dream by going there on the City of New Orleans, the famed train that runs from Chicago to the Crescent City.

If I can find access to a computer, I will try to blog from there. Otherwise I will have plenty of pictures and stories to share when I return next Tuesday.

Take care! -Eric

p.s. Justin: You're better at photoshop (or MS Paint). Could you put some beads and a better Mardi Gras hat on me? My vacationitis has caused me to forget how to work said programs. ;-)

Soggy Situation Wednesday

2009-02-10T08:44:00.004-06:00

From all of the recent snowmelt the ground is fairly saturated and still mostly frozen. With a potent storm system spinning up for tomorrow, our concerns start to turn to flooding. The majority of this morning's models are taking the heaviest rainfall along a line between southwestern Missouri and Chicago. Flood watches and flash flood watches have already been posted in most of these counties. Right now all signs point to us receiving less than an inch of rain. This would be a good thing, because any more than that and we may have to watch out for the potential for flooding. If this storm starts to track any farther to the north, the flood watch for Chicago will have to be extended to include the Rockford area.

As for today, you can clearly see the center of low pressure spinning over central Minnesota. The pinwheeling effect is evident as far east as the New England states. We are sitting pretty in the dry slot, which has cleared out all of our cloud cover. Add in a counter-clockwise rotation around that low and we've got some strong southwesterly winds that should send us into some rare temperature territory this afternoon. The number to watch is 64°. If we hit that mark that will be the warmest temperature ever recorded this early in a calendar year. -ADAM

Record setting warmth!

2009-02-09T22:39:00.005-06:00

Southerly winds will continue to blow strong for Tuesday! What's interesting about our pattern is the fact that not only surface winds, but winds aloft will be blowing in from the SSW. This is the perfect way to get temperatures to warm quickly and efficiently.

No one has forgotten what these warm, winter days can do. The last time we were in the 60s in January or February, we had a tornado. So this warmth is something to celebrate because it comes with abundant sunshine! If we get into the 60s it will only be the seventh time we've seen our first 60° temperature come this early.
Here is the list of the only 60°+ temperatures we've ever seen this early in the season.

60° January 4, 1997
63° January 7, 2008 (Poplar Grove tornado)
60° January 21, 1960
61° January 26, 1944
61° January 27, 1944
63° January 31, 1989
63° February 9, 2009

Rumbly showers moving in now

2009-02-09T16:06:00.003-06:00

Live 13Futuretrack shows a band of showers and thunderstorms moving in. These will unfortunately make the evening commute a little troublesome, especially with the water already on the roadways from the melting snow.

Watch out for deep puddles and wet driving conditions this evening.

No severe weather is possible with this.

Breakdown for Today's Rain

2009-02-09T10:41:00.005-06:00

Here is the latest radar imagery. A line of thunderstorms developed along the Kansas/Missouri border. This marginal activity showed high enough reflectivity in radar for a severe thunderstorm watch to be issued for western Missouri (the area circled in red). The line of storms is already starting to weaken and the Storm Prediction Center does not feel that another watch will be posted.

Ahead of this wet weather is a stretch of clear skies (circled in pink). We will tap into some sunshine around lunchtime and into the early afternoon hours. This line of activity should reach us between 4-7pm. The farther it moves away from the tightly wound area of low pressure in western Nebraska, the more it will weaken and lose its borderline severe characteristics. These showers should throw a tenth or two of liquid at us, which is not enough to raise flooding concerns.

On a side note, I am looking at skycam right now and it still shows a mainly frozen over Rock River. As this continues to thin out and eventually break up we may have to watch out for some ice jams. With the potential for some heavier rainfall coming Wednesday, this is a situation that we will blog about more in the next day or two. -ADAM

Rumbly Monday

2009-02-08T20:16:00.003-06:00

A vigorous storm system is taking shape over the Plains this evening. In fact, there's a line of severe thunderstorms ongoing in west Texas. Severe weather doesn't look to be a widespread problem tomorrow, as the Storm Prediction Center has outlined only a very marginal risk of severe storms to our west. However, we still have a chance of having a few garden variety thunderstorms in the Stateline on Monday evening as a cold front pushes through. Otherwise, just plan on some showers, especially after noon.

Rainfall amounts should be fairly low, so flooding due to rainfall on Monday shouldn't be a big concern. We'll still have to keep an eye on ice jams, though.

New record high!

2009-02-07T17:20:00.005-06:00

Thanks to ample sunshine and any fogginess staying at bay, the temperature at Rockford climbed to 52°!

And if one record weren't enough, we may manage to at least tie another. Tuesday's record high is 56°. All signs point to the Rock River Valley climbing well into the 50s that day. I'm currently going with a forecast high of 56°. Since we're still a few days out, I'm not quite comfortable forecasting a record-breaking high. That said, I won't be surprised if that number sneaks upward a little over the next couple of days. Regardless, it'll be very warm!

T-shirt and Shorts?

2009-02-07T13:45:00.002-06:00

I just got done running a couple of laps around the Heritage Path at the Midway Village Museum. It feels phenomenal outside with today being the warmest day in almost 3 months! This track, which is just over a mile long, was packed with people walking their dogs and kids riding scooters. I went running in a t-shirt and shorts and I got a few funny looks, but I wasn't the only one in this type of apparel. I saw one other guy burning some calories in short sleeves and shorts.

Last weekend was nice, but this one is even better! What are you doing with your spring-like Saturday? -ADAM

Feeling a little tropical around here?

2009-02-06T17:45:00.004-06:00

With 40s and 50s in the forecast, it sure will feel nice around here. Perhaps not as nice as a trip to the Caribbean, but we'll take it!

Steve Brown, a good friend and fellow Meteorologist recently made a trip down to Culebra, Puerto Rico. Here are some snapshots from his trip. Hard to believe it's warm and inviting 12 months out of the year.

Thanks for a great day!

2009-02-05T17:00:00.002-06:00

We would like to make a special mention and thank you to Cookies by Design and Balloons & Flowers by Haley for the very nice gifts on this National Weatherpersons Day. The balloon on the left is the biggest I have ever seen.

So, we thank them and thank you in advance as we plead for your vote as Rockford's best weatherteam. 97ZOK has an online poll going now. Click here to vote!

Thanks! :)

National Weatherperson's Day

2009-02-05T09:12:00.004-06:00

Today is National Weatherperson's Day which commemorates the birth of John Jeffries in 1745. He was a Boston physician who was one of the first Americans to take daily weather observations. He started doing this in 1774. Nine years later the hot air balloon was invented. A year after its invention (in 1784), John Jeffries went up in a hot air balloon over London and took the first upper air observation.

Thanks to all those that have sent gift baskets and complimentary emails. We have so much junk food now in the weather center that it is scary. If we eat all of this stuff we might have to install elastic into our suit pants... -ADAM

Enjoy the sunshine on Thursday!

2009-02-04T22:51:00.003-06:00

We can't have our cake and eat it too. That's for sure! Temperatures will begin their rise on Thursday but once we begin to melt off the five inches of snow on the ground we will add quite a bit of additional water vapor to the lower atmosphere. This will likely happen late in the day on Friday, but especially on Saturday. Visibilities may be greatly reduced, even with a stiff breeze.

We'll keep an eye on our changing weather the next few days. There may be some timing issues with the extended regarding our chances for rain, but it seems that the 40° temperatures are a sure bet with the fleeting snow.

This has nothing to do with weather

2009-02-04T16:22:00.001-06:00

but it's pretty funny. From the author: "This is my 7 year old son who had an extra tooth removed last summer, 2008. I had the camera because he was so nervous before I wanted him to see before and after. He was so out of it after, I had to carry him out of the office. The staff was laughing and I had tears it was so funny. He is doing fine now and the teeth are great."

The meltdown then some thunder?

2009-02-04T08:11:00.008-06:00

You have to jog your memory back over 10 weeks to remember the last time we touched 50°. If it doesn't happen Saturday, we will get very close. When the stretch of 40 degree days starts on Friday, it will kick off the big meltdown of our snowpack. You can see that several nights we won't even drop below the freezing mark, meaning the sounds of dripping will continue around the clock.

Last night Eric threw a lightning bolt on the icon for next Monday. While rain is looking more and more likely, it isn't an overwhelming chance of thunder. That being said, I couldn't find enough reason in the models to take the thunderstorm icon off of the 7 day outlook. The second graphic is what the European model is projecting for next Monday afternoon. You can clearly see the big push in moisture off of the Gulf of Mexico with a well defined area of low pressure around Fargo, North Dakota. This will certainly be something to watch early next week. -ADAM

Eating snow may actually be good for your health!

2009-02-03T22:23:00.003-06:00

This one came as a shocker to me as I haven't eaten a slushy handful of snow in years but eating snow may actually be good for you!

The latest issue of Psychologies Magazine (a UK women's magazine) reports that rainwater's "slightly acidic chemistry may assist kidney function and remove toxins, in turn alleviating arthritis and gallstones."

The article also cites cites a University of Western Australia study that found children who drank rainwater were less likely to contract gastroenteritis.

So, next time we're calling for accumulations, go ahead and eat that snow...just as long as it's fresh and white.

Lake Michigan Mess

2009-02-03T11:50:00.006-06:00

On days like today, I'm glad I don't have a "scenic" view of Lake Michigan. The lake effect snow machine is running on high today as northerly winds gobble up moisture over the open waters of Lake Michigan and dump the snow inland between Chicago and South Bend. Some spots could end up with over a foot of snow, while we merely record a few flurries for today. Lake Effect Snow Warnings are highlighted with the darker turquoise, while the Advisory counties are colored in with a light blue. Listen to this discussion from the NWS in Chicago:


CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN...SOUTHWARD TO JUST
EAST OF THE ILLINOIS SHORELINE. AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA BY NOON. THE HEAVIEST AND
MOST PERSISTENT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA...IN PARTICULAR OVER PORTER COUNTY...WHERE UP TO 18
INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL. SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS.

Robins already?

2009-02-02T21:15:00.004-06:00

We've had a few phone calls from some of you spotting robins already! If you've seen one let us know! Better yet? Get your digital cameras out and send us a picture. After all, they are the best sign that a warming spring is just around the corner. Let's hope they will pop out of the woodwork this weekend when temperatures surge into the 40s!

Robins are on their trek of migrating northward at this time of year so most likely the little ones we're seeing right now are on their way to Canada for the summer. I did hear somewhere that some robins stay here all year long (but I've yet to see any in the middle of winter). Maybe someone has more insight on that one!

Don't forget to use our "See it, Shoot it, Show it" feature on the main weather page.when you're submitting pictures. But don't forget to throw us an E-Mail to weather@wrex.com and let us know your picture is there. Then we can share them on the air!

Conspiracy Theory?

2009-02-02T09:20:00.004-06:00

This groundhog is trying to tell me we've got six more weeks of winter, but I'm ready for an early spring. This is why I went searching for a way to debunk his prognostication.

Take a look at 13 FutureTrack. At 6:30 CST, the prediction was announced. At that time it appears as though a fairly thick deck of clouds is covering western Pennsylvania. Therefore, I looked at the closest observation site to Punxsutawney, PA and that led me to a town called DuBois. That site, which is 20 miles to the north, recorded overcast conditions from 5am to 10am EST. From looking at this data, there is NO way Phil saw his shadow. That's why I vote for an early spring! -ADAM

Phil says, "Six more weeks of winter..."

2009-02-02T06:52:00.000-06:00

Phil's official forecast as read February 2nd, 2009 at sunrise at Gobbler's Knob:

Hear Ye Hear Ye

On Gobbler's Knob this glorious Groundhog Day, February 2nd, 2009

Punxsutawney Phil, Seer of Seers, Prognosticator of all Prognosticators

Awoke to the call of President Bill Cooper

And greeted his handlers, Ben Hughes and John Griffiths

After casting a joyful eye towards thousands of his faithful followers,

Phil proclaimed that his beloved Pittsburgh Steelers were World Champions one more time

And a bright sky above me

Showed my shadow beside me.

So 6 more weeks of winter it will be.

Super Bowl weather history

2009-02-01T16:26:00.002-06:00

William Schmitz, of the Southeast Regional Climate Center, put together a pretty comprehensive listing of the weather that occurred on each Super Bowl Sunday in its host city. You can read the PDF here.

We made it!

2009-01-31T16:16:00.004-06:00

Let it be known that on this day... Saturday, January 31, 2009... the Chicago-Rockford International Airport recorded a temperature of 41°!

This is our first time of reaching the freezing mark since January 4 (27 days) and our first time of reaching 40° since December 29 (33 days).

The real reason for Groundhog Day

2009-01-30T17:21:00.002-06:00

Punxsutawney Phil, America’s most famous weather forecaster, will have love, not weather, on his mind when he emerges from his hole on February 2. Researchers tracked 32 groundhogs for more than four years and concluded that the real reason for the early February appearance is a version of the dating game, groundhog style.

Male groundhogs wake up after three months of hibernation to check out the available pool of ladies within their territory. They select a female with whom they spend the night, and this sleepover acts as a first date, allowing the groundhogs time to get to know each other before the official start of mating season the following month. During these meet and greet sessions, contact is confined to rubbing noses - there's no going "all the way."

After scoping out two or three females, the male groundhog returns to his burrow to sleep again until March, dreaming of the hotties he has just met. When he awakes and revisits each of the females, the earlier slumber parties allow the woodchucks to skip the small talk and get right down to the business of breeding.

Climate Change

Here’s a round-up of recent news on how climate change is affecting wildlife:

Has Punxsutawney Phil been predicting climate change?
Are the seasons shifting? The highest summer and lowest winter temperatures have been happening an average of two days earlier.
Antarctica is warming faster than previously thought.
Deep sea life is being impacted by climate change.
Climate change forces tropical insects to higher elevations.
Forests are in decline as temperatures rise.
Climate change effects are irreversible accoording to a new study.

Let's put this month behind us!

2009-01-30T09:43:00.003-06:00

I for one am ecstatic about being able to flip the calendar and move into February. This month has been brutally cold as witnessed by the average temperature for the month listed at 13.6°, which is 5.3° colder than normal.

The graphic to the left shows the low temperature for each day this month. You can see that the month started off somewhat normal with lows above 10° for eight of the first ten days. Then the arctic express kicked in and we spent the last three weeks getting pummeled by polar air. Seven days this month have witnessed temperatures below zero with the record of -25° sticking out like a sore thumb. Including this morning, 17 of the past 20 days have started with temperatures in the single digits or colder. Considering the average low during this timeframe is in the lower teens, that just doesn't quite seem fair.

As for the last day of the month, I put it in the single digits color since it looks like the mercury will be around 8° at midnight tonight with slowly rising temperatures thereafter. -ADAM

NASA invites public to choose Hubble's next discovery

2009-01-29T15:54:00.003-06:00

NASA is giving everyone the opportunity to use the world's most celebrated telescope to explore the heavens and boldly look where the Hubble Space Telescope has never looked before.

NASA is inviting the public to vote for one of six candidate astronomical objects for Hubble to observe in honor of the International Year of Astronomy. The options, which Hubble has not previously photographed, range from far-flung galaxies to dying stars. Votes can be cast until March 1. Hubble's camera will make a high resolution image revealing new details about the object that receives the most votes. The image will be released during the International Year of Astronomy's "100 Hours of Astronomy" from April 2 to 5.

Cast your vote by clicking here. Everyone who votes also will be entered into a random drawing to receive one of 100 copies of the Hubble photograph made of the winning celestial body.

NASA also invites teachers and students to participate in an accompanying Hubble Space Telescope classroom collage activity that integrates art, science and language arts. Students in participating classes will select their favorite Hubble images and assemble them in a collage. Students in each class also will choose their favorite object from the image voting contest and write essays about why they made their selections.

The Hubble Space Telescope, launched in 1990, was designed so that it can be repaired in space by astronauts. The next servicing mission to the telescope is targeted to launch on space shuttle Atlantis May 12, 2009. Mission objectives include extending Hubble's operational life by five years, repairing its out-of-commission instruments and enhancing its scientific power. To do so, astronauts will replace gyroscopes and batteries on the telescope, repair the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph and the Advanced Camera for Surveys and install two new instruments -- the Wide Field Camera 3 and the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph.

Who ya gonna call?

2009-01-29T06:27:00.003-06:00

With so much technology these days, there is an old standby that is still quite useful for a lot of people. I can't recall too many people that don't own a cell phone, which means you have an updated forecast at your fingertips 24 hours a day. Plug in the number you see listed here. If you can't get to your computer at a certain time, you can dial up the Weatherline and get the current time and temperature as well as a forecast that is updated a minimum of 3 times a day by Eric, Justin, and myself.

We recently got our usage numbers in for 2008. During the entire year, the Weatherline was called a whopping 410,233 times! That averages out to 34,186 calls per month and 1120 calls per day! -ADAM

Destructive ice storm in the South

2009-01-28T16:45:00.004-06:00

We can thank our lucky stars that the active storm track has remained to our south. The strong winter storms that typically develop in the Texas Panhandle and hook north haven't been making that northerly jog lately. The South got rocked with an ice storm of historic proportions. More than a million people have lost power and the damage is staggering.

Click here to read MSNBC's story about this crippling winter storm... the pictures tell the story even better than some of the words, I think.

One of our colleagues, Ryan Vaughan, is the chief meteorologist at KAIT-TV in Jonesboro, Arkansas, a place that was hit hard with ice. You can read his blog by clicking here.

Developing a Thick Skin

2009-01-28T09:06:00.004-06:00

Take a gander at the low temperatures this morning. The coldest readings were out west where the skies were clear for a longer period of time. Normally, this would be a major headline and we would be talking about extreme cold but it seems as though we've developed a pretty thick skin after such a cold month of January. It's hard for me to get in the mindset of talking about a dangerously cold morning when it was just 12 days ago that we hit -25°!

So how thick is your skin? Are you fazed by mornings with temperatures in the single digits anymore or do you still shiver while your teeth chatter driving into work? -ADAM

Abrupt End to Activity

2009-01-28T07:33:00.003-06:00

After nearly 29" of snow in the month of December, January started in similar fashion with almost a foot of snow in the first two weeks. Since then, we've hardly shoveled any of the fluffy stuff. The 0.7" of snow in the past 13 days includes the 0.2" that RFD recorded last night. As I gaze out toward the last four days of January our snowfall amounts look meager. Outside of a quick dusting tonight/tomorrow, skies are going to be dry. -ADAM

Global Warming is "irreversible"

2009-01-27T14:18:00.005-06:00

A team of researchers, commissioned by the United States government has come to a conclusion that because of our society's pollution within the past century, the effects of global warming will not go away for thousands of years!

Take a few minutes and read two separate stories from the BBC and Fox News. Just click on the links below.

Minor Amount of Snow

2009-01-27T09:36:00.002-06:00

The big event is well downstate where an ugly storm system is spreading freezing rain, sleet, and heavy snow across a swath of 10-12 states. This energy is going to bypass us for the most part as we sit on the northern fringe. Some light snow and flurries are quite possible occasionally today. You can see the sparse snow showers I'm talking about that are circled with the red line. They will continue moving east out of Nebraska and Iowa. Snow totals are going to be pretty minor. A few spots along I-88 could measure up to half an inch of snow with Rockford receiving about a dusting and southern Wisconsin staying mostly dry. This nuisance snow should be detected on 13 FutureTrack through midnight, but after that our radar sweeps should be clean. -ADAM

Worlds largest snowman?

2009-01-26T16:07:00.002-06:00

I think it's safe to say this snowman won't be melting anytime soon!

Do you know how I know this snowman is so big? No, it's not the fact the builders used a patio umbrella as a hat. It's the fact that the girls in the photo are my nieces Stephanie and Jenna. They were on a walk over the weekend with my brother Mike in Elmhurst, Illinois.

I wonder how long its scarf is!

Does this warm you up?

2009-01-26T09:04:00.002-06:00

Keeping the storms at bay

2009-01-25T18:15:00.004-06:00

Remember last week when there was talk of a potential winter storm in our neck of the woods? Well, there's still going to be one... but it's going to stay south of here!

As Eric discussed a few days ago, we look at where the "baroclinic zone" is located to help us determine winter storm tracks. That baroclinic zone typically lines up near the position of the jet stream, which is why we say that cool air is north of the jet stream, while warm air is south of it. In any event, this week's potentially big winter storm will follow the jet stream, causing big issues for the Ohio River Valley. Locations from Little Rock to Cincinnati could be dealing with an ice storm, while cities north of there will receive some pretty good snowfall totals. The shield of snow will graze us at the most, which is why I have merely an off-chance for flurries for the first part of the week. Northwest flow will return later in the week, bringing in more Alberta Clippers... although at this time, it looks like they'll mostly stay north of the Stateline.

Looking forward beyond the 7-Day into the first week of February, our ensemble computer models are trending toward what could be a significant warm-up across the Plains and Midwest. The image to the left is for the evening of February 5. It puts us within the +12 category. For reference, during the big arctic chill a couple weeks back, these maps had us as about -12. So... if this situation plays out - and that's a big "if" - we'd be looking at temperatures approximately as much above average as what we were below average a couple weeks ago. As always, we'll see how that particular situation evolves in the coming days.

Finally, lest you think I forgot, the answer to yesterday's puzzler. Some of you did, in fact, figure out the correct answer. If you said the answer was approximately 460°F (and you didn't cheat!), give yourself a pat on the back. To arrive at this answer, you must understand that temperature is essentially a measure of how quickly molecules in a given substance (such as air) are moving. There is only one temperature scale that measures this absolutely - the Kelvin scale. So, you would have to convert the Fahrenheit temperature to Kelvin, double the Kelvin temperature, then convert it back to Fahrenheit. This yields a decidedly scorching 459.67°F - and a very incorrect forecast. (Side note - the term "absolute zero" in terms of temperature refers to a temperature of 0K... that is, the theoretical temperature at which molecules do not move. Scientists have gotten extremely close to this value in laboratory experiments.)

Still quiet

2009-01-24T21:17:00.003-06:00

After such an active December, it's amazing how quiet this month has felt (even if we are a few inches above normal for snow for January).

The NAM computer model keeps all measurable precipitation pretty much south of our viewing area. Any flurries that do fall shouldn't cause any issues.

By the way, if you haven't done so yet, try to figure out the answer to the question in the blog post right under this one! Remember... don't tell how you came up with your answer, and no cheating (like looking on Google for the answer)!

Puzzler to ponder...

2009-01-24T17:19:00.005-06:00

If you think you've got the answer figured out, leave a comment but don't explain how you arrived at your answer.

If the temperature today is 0°F and I say that tomorrow will be twice as warm, how warm will it be tomorrow?

Challenge: Don't Google the question!!

And now for something totally different

2009-01-23T17:51:00.003-06:00

How is this even possible?

I think it's time I made an appointment with the "Baro-Clinic"

2009-01-23T16:03:00.008-06:00

No, the Baro Clinic isn't where Meteorologists go to get a check up!

I labeled the baroclinic zone on the map to the left. Can you figure out what's so special about this area? Think temperature and look again. Nothing yet? Memphis, Tennessee was 64° today and Chicago was 34°. Big difference, right? Now look at Memphis versus Orlando, Florida. There's only a five degree change there. The baroclinic zone is the place on the map where there is the biggest change in temperature within a small area. Most often these are located where cold fronts are (as in this case).

I know what you're saying: "Big whoop. Baroclinic zone. Who cares?"

When we have developing storms in the winter they often follow this baroclinic zone. Have you ever driven down I-39 toward Bloomington in winter and noticed how you drove right out of the snow? That's the baroclinic zone, my friend! Over the next week the baroclinic zone is going to be right over us (as there's snow on the ground from here down to I-80 and there's nothing down in Central Illinois). This indicates a heightened chance of some sort of snow event over the next few weeks.
If forecasting weather was that easy though. The baroclinic zone is just one of thousands of pieces that make up the forecasting puzzle. Next week may actually turn out to be a yawner.

Looking at the upper-level flow pattern next week reveals quite a bit of moisture in the southern stream. However, it doesn't look like the southern and northern streams will phase (come together) over us. This means the moisture in the southwestern U.S. will likely stay under the southern stream of the jet and continue into the Mid-Atlantic. We still may get nicked by something up here but it appears the best dynamics will stay south of Rockford for a week or so.

Bitterly Cold... Again?

2009-01-23T09:09:00.004-06:00

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES will be running overnight for a large chunk of northwestern Illinois and southwestern Wisconsin. These advisories should be lifted by noon on Saturday. Once our skies clear out tonight, actual air temperatures will plummet to near 0°. Factor in a pesky northwest wind at 10-20 mph and that sends wind chills close to -20°.

If you are sitting in one of the non-highlighted counties, you will still feel the extreme chills but you won't be close enough to the advisory criteria. -ADAM

Coolest newsdesk ever?

2009-01-22T14:08:00.003-06:00

Eastern Michigan's Channel 5 is doing something different to celebrate their area's snow-sculpting competition. They had a newsdesk and set made completely out of snow! Here's an excerpt from the article at WNEM.com:

FRANKENMUTH, Mich. -- An actual made-to-scale anchor desk carved in snow? It’s true. A seven-member crew from Mid-Michigan has been working since Monday constructing the frozen WNEM TV5 furniture piece for the Annual Zehnder’s Snowfest in Frankenmuth. Sculptor Sam Licavoli II said it took the team roughly 70 hours to sculpt the 10 feet tall by 20 feet long by 10 feet deep block of snow.

Click here to see video from their morning show. Maybe we can do this for our snow sculpting competition next year!

Plus & Minus

2009-01-22T10:44:00.004-06:00

We are now 2/3 of the way through the month of January so I figured I would take a quick check back. We have now tallied almost a foot of snow, but less than an inch of liquid precipitation. Through 21 days, this creates a big surplus in the snow department, but a deficit on the liquid side.

Scratching your head on this one? Outside of January 4th, the majority of our storm systems have come into the region laced with a lot of cold air. This has kept the rain events down as well as minimized the heavy, wet snow situations. With such cold atmospheric conditions the snow has fluffed up rather efficiently.

For the future, merely trace amounts of snow will be seen Friday in the form of flurries. Sunday night's snow chance appears fairly meager with most spots receiving some minor accumulations. Looking out even further, a big system could be spinning up during the middle of the work week. Half of the models are putting us in a predicament for a big snow, but the other half of the models are warming us into a mixed precipitation situation. The extended models have been flip-flopping around a lot recently, which means the forecast for the last couple of days in January is clearly up in the air. -ADAM

Visible west winds aloft

2009-01-21T14:08:00.003-06:00

On sunny days like today, the visible satellite picture can show us a lot. To give you your bearings, the red dot is the location of Rockford. But what's the deal with the black oval?

It's the steam plume from the Byron nuclear plant. There's apparently a pretty good westerly wind aloft, as the plume has made it beyond DeKalb County.

Modified Airmass

2009-01-21T11:30:00.003-06:00

The graphic to the left shows the current snowpack across the Midwest. Snow is still fairly thick as far south as a line between Burlington, IA and Springfield, IL. Today's southwest winds are pretty light between 5-15 mph, but it is enough to kick start a warming trend. If this pile of snow wasn't here this warmer airmass would be able to send us above the freezing mark today and into the 40s tomorrow. Unfortunately, this airmass is being modified a bit as the southwesterly winds move over the snow and cool off. The map of current temperatures directly correlates to the current snowpack. As of 11am, readings were in the mid 30s in Quincy & St. Louis, but in the Forest City we've barely made it into the low 20s. In conclusion, the warming trend for today and tomorrow is a bit subdued. Highs today will be near normal with slightly warmer than average conditions Thursday. -ADAM

Sunset on Mars?

2009-01-20T18:58:00.005-06:00

The picture to the left shows a hazy sunset. Would you believe it's a picture of a sunset on Mars? Make a guess then click on the image to find out.

For additional pictures from this spot, click here.

Striped Icebergs

2009-01-20T09:01:00.006-06:00

These pictures were taken approximately 1700 miles south of the coast of Cape Town, South Africa. Icebergs in the Antarctic area sometimes have stripes, formed by layers of snow that react to different conditions. Blue stripes are often created when a crevice in the ice sheet fills up with meltwater and freezes so quickly that no bubbles form. When an iceberg falls into the sea, a layer of salty seawater can freeze to the underside. If this is rich in algae, it can form a green stripe. Brown, black and yellow lines are caused by sediment, picked up when the ice sheet grinds downhill towards the sea.

Going for the record this winter?

2009-01-19T21:01:00.003-06:00

No one will soon forget last winter's 72.9 inches of snowfall; just an inch and a half short of the record snow for any winter season in Rockford. A few of you have been wondering if we'll get close to that record this season.

Looking back at how much we've shoveled so far this season yields a remarkable total so far! Last year up to this point we saw only 25.8 inches of snow. This season we've already had a whopping 45.6 inches...nearly 20 inches more than last year to this date!

At this rate we'll exceed the record easily. But that will only happen if we continue the pace that was set back in December (this still remains to be seen). Remember, last year's biggest snows came in February. This season we had nearly 30 inches of snow just during the month of December!

We'll continue to post our progress here on the blog. By the way, models are starting to hint at a big snowmaker in about a week. If you want to break a record keep your fingers crossed. If you don't, it may be time to plan a southern vacation!

McGrath, Alaska

2009-01-19T18:48:00.003-06:00

Can you imagine a 100-degree temperature swing in less than a week? That happened in McGrath, AK. Look at the temperature scale on the chart to the left (you can click on it for a larger version). -50 to +50 in less than a week! You can look at the detailed monthly summary by clicking here.

By the way, the normal high in McGrath is a couple degrees above zero, so they were more than 40 degrees above normal. That would be like us getting a high near 80 this time of year.

My friend Dave who lives in McGrath tells me the town is pretty much a sheet of ice with snowmelt, rain, then it all freezing again.

No Shoveling Needed

2009-01-19T12:20:00.003-06:00

Some light snow is scooting through Wisconsin right now and should arrive in northern Illinois late this afternoon. Most of these snowflakes are moving directly south. If this line holds true, the majority of the snow for today is going to stay west of I-39. Even if you live in Stockton, Freeport, Forreston, or Dixon you won't have to break out the shovel for this thin coating of the fluffy stuff. 13 FutureTrack should turn completely clean by midnight. -ADAM

What's in store this week

2009-01-18T20:06:00.002-06:00

The weather story for this week are the temperature changes ahead... nothing as extreme as last week, of course, but it'll be noticeable.

We'll still be stuck below normal for the first couple days of the week, thanks to the jet stream still being oriented north-south. That will allow a steady supply of chilly air to flow into our area. By midweek, though, the ridge in the West will try to push eastward... however, it will begin to break down as it does so. The very mild conditions in the Plains won't make it here, unfortunately, but we should finally crack the freezing mark for the first time since January 4.

That won't last very long. Another trough will be ready to swing back in by about Friday and lasting through at least the weekend. It'll turn sharply colder during that timeframe, but not nearly as bad as last week. There isn't a supply of extremely cold air available... it all got drained away into our neck of the woods!

Inauguration Day Weather

2009-01-18T15:54:00.003-06:00

Wondering what sort of weather has occurred on past Inauguration Days? The Baltimore/DC National Weather Service office has compiled quite a bit of information about them by clicking here.

If you're making the journey east for Tuesday's inauguration, here's their forecast.

Hopefully we don't see this again!

2009-01-17T20:01:00.003-06:00

We just have some light snow and still-below-normal temperatures in the forecast for the next few days... a pretty quiet weather pattern. Instead, I thought I'd blog a little more about our recent cold snap.

The lowest wind chill Rockford experienced in the past few days was -35°. Now, we've mentioned a couple times that this is based on the new wind chill scale, and that the old one had values that were much colder than reality. The coldest wind chill ever in Rockford was -72° (old wind chill scale) on January 20, 1985. Using the newer scale, that translates to about -50°. So, there have been colder wind chills than what we experienced this week... but definitely still bone-chilling.

At 9pm on Wednesday, Rockford's temperature dropped to 0°. It did not get back to 0° until midnight Friday night for a total of 51 hours. (Now, you could argue that it was 52 hours including 12am-1am Friday night... but I'm assuming a constant change in temperature, so after midnight it would have gotten higher than 0°.)

Finally, we went from -25° Friday morning to 27° Saturday afternoon ... a rise of 52°. That is one of the largest two-calendar-day rises ever recorded in Rockford.

When all else fails...

2009-01-17T15:31:00.001-06:00

...think warm thoughts.

No more negativity!

2009-01-16T17:50:00.005-06:00

Well, it looks like the forecast for -26° in Rockford worked out okay after all! We were down to -25° for only one of a dozen times in recorded history. As Adam mentioned (below) we broke a record for the date, but not that unbelievable all-time record low!

Where do we go from here? Well, it can't get any colder. That's for sure! Look at the 24 hour temperature change map. This arctic airmass is on its way down to the southeastern United States. There will be some whining from the beachgoers in Florida this weekend as temperatures will be in the 50s there. For us, if we get to 25° on Saturday afternoon, we'll see a 50° rise in temperature from one day to the next.

As far as the weekend goes, we'll watch a little snow comes down the pike on Saturday. An inch is expected here in the Rockford area with higher totals northeast of the city (perhaps a two or three inch report). It certainly won't be a big deal.

2009-01-16T08:08:00.005-06:00

Record breaking cold this morning! These are the unofficial low temperatures. The old mark in Rockford of -24° set in 1982 was exceeded early this morning.

Both the Quad Cities and Chicago National Weather Service offices have thrown out the reports from the I-88 corridor (Rochelle and Dixon) as they were anomalously low.

We're on our way up now!

2009-01-15T18:30:00.004-06:00

9:35pm - Temperatures have fallen into the teens below zero as of 9pm. While this isn't quite as far as I thought they'd be by now, we're still dealing with a 7-14mph wind. As high pressure builds in over the next few hours I expect the wind to drop down to 4-9mph. This will allow temperatures to fall into the -20s. I'm not going to monkey with our projected temperature of -26 by morning, but if we're not to -20 by 3am, it will be very hard to achieve. Having said that, there will be some locales that are much colder. Very remote, rural areas (especially those in valleys) will be as cold as -30 by 6am. To reiterate, a Wind Chill Warning remains in effect through midday Friday.

6:35pm - Between now and 10 o'clock the question running through my mind is "Will my forecast of -26° work out or will I have to tweak it? It will all determine on our rate of change this evening.

Here are
6pm Temperatures and 1 hour change

Rockford -12° -3°
Freeport -10° steady
Rochelle -17° -1°
Janesville -9° -1°
Monroe -9° steady
Lake Geneva -6° steady
DeKalb -12° steady
Sterling -13° steady

False Rochelle Report

2009-01-15T14:15:00.006-06:00

Some media sources are reporting that Rochelle saw a low temperature of -37° this morning. This information is incorrect. That was an anomalous report and has been thrown out (according to the National Weather Service). Here is the official report:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
145 PM CST THU JAN 15 2009

LOW TEMPERATURE REPORTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA THIS MORNING...

***NO NEW STATE RECORD FOR ILLINOIS***

EARLIER TODAY THE AUTOMATED OBSERVING STATION AT THE ROCHELLE
ILLINOIS AIRPORT IN SOUTHEASTERN OGLE COUNTY REGISTERED A
TEMPERATURE OF -37 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  THIS WOULD HAVE BEEN A NEW
STATE LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD.  HOWEVER...UPON INVESTIGATION...THE
ILLINOIS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST FOUND THAT THE AUTOMATED EQUIPMENT HAD
MALFUNCTIONED AND WAS READING 14 DEGREES TOO LOW.  THIS HAS BEEN
CORRECTED AND THE SITE IS NOW REPORTING A REPRESENTATIVE TEMPERATURE.

AS A RESULT...THE ALL TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR ILLINOIS
REMAINS -36 DEGREES SET AT CONGERVILLE ILLINOIS ON THE MORNING OF
JANUARY 5 1999.

Cedar Rapids, Iowa dropped to -29° this morning, breaking their all-time record low temperature. Dubuque, Iowa broke a daily record with -26°. Burlington, Iowa tied a record at -18°.

Low temperatures in our area this morning (not records, however many records are in serious jeopardy tonight)

Sterling-Rock Falls, IL -24°
Monroe, WI -20°
Moline, IL -20°
Freeport, IL -18°
DeKalb, IL -17°
Rockford, IL -16°
Janesville, WI -15°
Madison, WI -15°
Lake Geneva, WI -9°

Colder here than the North Pole!

2009-01-15T09:11:00.009-06:00

Today's weather can definitely be classified as severe, but it is much different than what we typically deal with. During severe winter storms, we normally need to send out updates pretty frequently as driving conditions deteriorate and precipitation types vary. Severe weather during the warm months changes even more rapidly. We can have thunderstorms blow up in an hour, and tornadoes spin down within minutes.

This severe weather event is odd to me, because the only analysis to share is that it is dangerously cold. The conditions aren't going to change anytime in the next 24-36 hours as our skies stay clear and our temperatures stay frigid. Wind Chill Advisories extend as far south as northern Mississippi and northern Alabama. I believe almost all schools have canceled class for the day, even Rockford after attempting to hold out overnight.

Here are a few unbelievable factoids to pass along. This morning's temperatures in Anchorage, Alaska were in the low 40s while Houston, Texas was sitting in the upper 30s. Furthermore, the temperature this morning at the North Pole was -9°F. The temperature at the South Pole was -17°F. The unofficial low at the Rockford Int'l Airport was -16°. Can you believe it? It was warmer this morning at Santa's house than it was in the Forest City!!! -ADAM

An early answer to the question "Why isn't my car starting?"

2009-01-14T17:39:00.004-06:00

Almost every liquid has a freezing point (except for helium which can not freeze). Looking at low temperatures that will near all-time records, I decided to see what the freezing point of normal engine oils are. They are described using a "pour point" which isn't necessarily where the liquid will become solid, rather its the lowest temperature which oil will readily flow without disturbance.

Conventional motor oils will become as thick as peanut butter when they reach -25 to -30°. (You might be asking how people in Alaska start their cars. Good question! They have specially formulated motor oils that work in colder temperatures.) So, if you're one of the unlucky ones who can not start the car or truck Friday morning, it may be because the oil has reached it's "pour point." It would be a wise decision to wait in line at the local lube-change tomorrow and change your oil (especially if you're overdue). Having less gunk in your oil will only increase your chance of driving freely when it gets really bitter. Oh! Another thing: make sure your battery is fully charged and all fluid levels are tip-topped.

As always, we're looking for your stories of how you're coping with this cold. Please continue to post using the comment button below.

2009-01-14T15:46:00.004-06:00

We've been talking about it for days... and it's almost here. Arctic air is spilling through the Midwest. Temperatures in much of northern Iowa are already below zero; ours will do the same later this evening won't rise above zero until Friday evening.

The forecast for tomorrow night calls for a low temperature of -26°, which would come very close to the all-time coldest low temperature ever recorded in Rockford.

This kind of cold is dangerous! Limit your amount of time outdoors and take the necessary precautions if you must go outside.

2009-01-14T14:27:00.003-06:00

A Wind Chill Warning is in effect for all locations through Friday afternoon. This warning is issued when the combination of very cold air and wind will create life threatning wind chill values of -35°F or colder for at least three hours.

These conditions will result in frostbite...and could lead to hypothermia or death...if proper precautions are not taken. If you must venture outdoors, wear several layers of clothing and cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in as little as ten minutes. If clothes become wet, they should immediately be changed for dry ones.

This is a dangerous weather pattern. In fact we may see the coldest temperatures ever recorded in parts of our area either tonight or Thursday night. There are numerous closings and cancellations because of the extreme cold. Please click on the link above for more information.

Push refresh on your browser for the latest blog information.

2009-01-14T08:32:00.016-06:00

Update 10:45am = Rapid clearing is taking place in eastern Iowa. Some sunshine is already being seen near Galena and in southwestern Wisconsin. The back edge of the thick clouds should pass through Winnebago County shortly.

Original Post = Light to moderate snow is lingering across the Stateline. It should hang around through the late morning hours, but we will see the accumulating snow quit by lunchtime. Snowflakes will still be witnessed in the air this afternoon due to blowing and drifting snow. Wind speeds aren't too terrible right now, but by this afternoon they will swivel to a northwesterly direction and start howling at 15-30 mph. With such a fluffy, powdery snow on the ground it will be easily picked up and whipped around. Visibilities in most locations are manageable as of 8am, but they could drop below a half mile later today. Due to these rough travel conditions a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY continues for all of northern Illinois through the remainder of the day.

Here are some snowfall totals, in order from most recent to oldest:
Rockford Airport [Winnebago Co, IL] official nws reports SNOW of M2.0 INCH at 11:50 AM
Shabbona [De Kalb Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M5.0 INCH at 10:00 AM
Oregon [Ogle Co, IL] co-op observer reports HEAVY SNOW of M6.0 INCH at 09:04 AM
Mount Carroll [Carroll Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY SNOW of M6.3 INCH at 09:03 AM... gusty winds making 2 to 3 foot drifts.
Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.5 INCH at 09:00 AM
Dixon [Lee Co, IL] co-op observer reports HEAVY SNOW of M7.0 INCH at 08:39 AM
Winslow [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.0 INCH at 08:27 AM
Fulton [Whiteside Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M6.5 INCH at 08:20 AM
Sterling [Whiteside Co, IL] public reports SNOW of E5.0 INCH at 07:18 AM
Coleta [Whiteside Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.4 INCH at 07:15 AM
De Kalb [De Kalb Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M4.8 INCH at 07:00 AM
Paw Paw [Lee Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M4.0 INCH at 07:00 AM
Belvidere [Boone Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M2.5 INCH at 07:00 AM
WREX station [Winnebago Co, IL] Adam Painter reports snow of 1.8 inches at 06:50 AM