Blame it on El Nino?

I've mentioned before how this autumn season compares to the 1997/1998 El Nino. (El Nino winters bring us milder, drier weather.) But looking at the similarities between this year and 1997 is the key to figuring out how this winter will pan out. The winter of 1997/1998 began on a very cold, wet note but ended up being very mild and dry!

So, should we blame October's cold on El Nino or the late Chris Farley? (Click on the link to see his infamous SNL parody).

Tim Halback, Meteorologist with the National Weather Service Chicago office points out that 2 of the top 8 warmest autumns happened during El Nino years (1963 & 1941). While he agrees that this year's onset of El Nino is very similar to 1997/1998, El Nino winters usually begin in the autumn...and are very warm! Precipitation may help us figure this out a little more. Certainly, El Nino autumns are very wet! Looking at our climate data, we've been rather wet since September, so we'll take some of the blame off of Farley!

One thing is certain here: The effect El Nino has on our weather is nearly impossible to predict. More times than not, we dissect the information after we've experienced the El Nino winter.

So, we'll continue the thought that October will end on a cool, wet note. After that, things should warm to above-normal levels. -ERIC