Eric and I have talked about this before and we try to hold off on pinpointing a time frame until the event gets relatively close. At this point we are less than 36 hours away from the severe weather threat for Thursday night and Friday morning. Over the past month or so, the models have been speeding up storm systems prematurely. Therefore, we've had to trend back thunderstorm threats recently.With that said, the closer we get to the event, the more accurate the models become with the timing. The graphic to the left is from the GFS model and it is cranking out the sea level pressure and 6 hour precipitation total between 7pm Thursday night and 1am Friday morning. This model is depicting an area (the darkest green) that could pick up between a quarter and half an inch of rain during this timeframe. This is a bit misleading, because if you get stuck under one of these big thunderstorms, you could see rainfall totals up around an inch.
I know Eric is going with more of a Friday morning event, but in my opinion I would take an educated guess and expect that by the time the 10pm news rolls around Thursday night, Eric will have some big thunderstorms to talk about in the viewing area.
I will talk with Eric some more later today, but right now he is still working on some beauty rest! -ADAM
7 comments:
interesting. last night on the news sorenson said wind gusts "as high as 80 mph". now we're being advised just half that, 40 mph.
they'll do anything to create interest in the weather in order to increase viewer numbers. it's disappointing that they'll resort to hype to increase the likelihood of us tuning in.
Dear anonymous:
I don't know where you were advised of half that wind, but I will stand by Eric's forecast.
Wind gusts tomorrow afternoon will be near 40 miles per hour. Those winds will be due to the advection of air, and not from thunderstorm activity.
The wind gusts that Eric was speaking about between 60 and 80 mph could arise due to an outflow boundary from rapidly descending air from approaching thunderstorms. These extremely strong winds do not last very long at all. Likely for 5 to 10 minutes until that leading edge has passed. During the passage of a bow echo, which is likely tomorrow night, the wind speeds change frequently whether the storm is approaching or departing.
Unfortunately, there are time constraints in television and an explanation like this cannot be given everytime. That is why the Weatherblog is so helpful, because we can dive into greater detail and terminology online.
By the way, the May ratings period has been over for two weeks.
Adam Painter
I don't know everytime there is some sort of weather why there always has to be someone on here that has to down the work that the weather team does. The weather can change every 5 mins from what i understand. I did notice i think Eric did a lil mistype that storm that happened back in 2003 was on july 4th if i remember right, well the early mornings of the 5th. But the weather works in mysterious ways, and i think they do a great job of updating us whether it gets worse or it doesn't happen at all. At least we are aware of this so we can be on the outlook for anything that could happen, expecially when its in the middle of the night and we are sleeping. You guys do a great job!
I think you do a great job! You always have to put the worst that can happen out there and hope it doesn't. I am always very pleased with their forcast! Keep up the great work!
I think the 13 news weather team does a superb job. I check this blog very often. The wind event did happen around 4:20am on july 5th, 2003. I was up during the entire storm and it was just unreal what happened. To the first anonymous poster, you try and predict these things and see how u do.
There is a Ham Radio Operator where I work who has been sending out warnings about this approaching storm system since yesterday. I think that is overkill.
Even if a gigantic tornado outbreak occurs right overhead, there is not much you can do about it 2 or 3 days in advance.
But there is! Imagine how many people in the Rockford metro haven't ever seen a tornado in their lifetime. That's probably 95% of the population!
Being ready in advance is essential! Knowing where to go ahead of time is key! God forbid severe weather happen in the height of the afternoon rush, but people have to plan on being in a safe place should storms threaten. -ERIC
Post a Comment