9:30am update - The SPC has now added Northern Illinois to the HIGH RISK. To read their latest statement this potential severe weather event, click here. This is a particularly dangerous situation. While a few spin-up type tornadoes will be possible during the afternoon, especially west and north of Rockford, the main event appears to be during the evening...and will be mainly a straight-line wind event with storm wind gusts around 80mph possible. -ERIC
1:53am-Once every few years the Storm Prediction Center will put Wisconsin into a "high risk" of severe thunderstorms. In fact, high risks in Oklahoma and Texas only come a handful of times every year. It's not too often that our entire area is in the "moderate risk" either.So, what does that mean? Take a look at the second graphic. This is the
statistical probability of a tornado touchdown within 25 miles of any point. For Central and Northern Wisconsin, that chance is an amazing 30%+! We're in the 10-15% chance for Thursday evening...slightly lower.The Storm Prediction Center says "potential for tornadic supercells seems high. A few strong tornadoes are possible as convective activity develops northeastward across North Central Wisconsin into Upper Michigan."
As Adam and I have mentioned to you in previous newscasts, it appears that this will be more of a straight-line wind event for us. Here's a look at the statistical probabilities of damaging wind...and we're right in the bullseye for this one.Meteorologist Adam Painter will have a complete storm forecast on 13News Today. You can also count on 13News to have all three degreed Meteorologists in the Weather Center during the day as we track this potentially dangerous situation. -ERIC
27 comments:
Oh my gosh! Now that sounds serious. Do you think we'll have tornadoes here?
There could be a few spin-up type tornadoes, but typically when you have a storm-motion of 40-50mph, you don't have long-track, destructive tornadoes...storms simply are moving too fast to produce tornadoes.
My gut told me that there could be a few tornadoes along the Misssissippi River during the late afternoon hours with a squall line (high wind event) for Rockford, points east.
SPC seems to think there's an enhanced tornadic threat...Adam will be analyzing that in detail in the morning and at noon. Stay here with the blog for more as well.
I am heading to bed...we've got a busy day ahead of us. -ERIC
you guys are just the best. Thanks so much for all the information ahead of time. Helps us to be prepared and get things taken care of outside. I like the detail you provide on the website compared to the brief rundown on the news. KEEP IT UP.
Is there a better estimate for what time we should start seeing storms? or are you still shooting for around 10
I know already the winds have picked up, well they did last night around 9pm or a lil before. We brought in our umbrella for the patio set so it doesn't blow away. I have trash all over my yard from the winds already.
What are the chances or percentage of us seeing a somewhat repeat of the July 4th storms of 2003? I mean should we be running out and stocking up on the things we would need if we lose power and finding places to put our frozen foods etc? Should we be getting a generator? i know that year we didn't have power for 2 days and it was terrible! I'd like to get ice and stuff before this storm hits because that year we were stuck going down to byron just to get ice and we were only able to get a couple bags! All of rockford was out and winnebago. So should this be something we should all be thinking about ahead of time before the storm gets here???
On the timing issue. The main squall line should move through between 8pm and 10pm, with an isolated supercell or two developing ahead of it.
On the ice issue. Like my mother said, "Better to be safe, than sorry."
Adam Painter
Always have a backup plan. And I think its time that I program my weather radio... still havent gotten around to that.
And the high risk has now been extended to most of the viewing area.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif
I know i've been coming here and checking everything about every hour. I'm going to get the ice tonight and well if we don't lose power i will have enough ice for orange julius lol. But do you think these storms could be compared to or close to what we had in 2003? heck i slept through that storm and it scared me once i found out i slept through it and what did happen!
You cant really predict this far in advance if it will compare to July 5th, but the possibility is DEFINATELY there from what I've heard. And if youre afraid of sleeping through it (like i did), get a weather radio. I got one right after that storm.. but it really hasn't saved me from anything yet.
with the 9:30 AM update, does this mean tornadoes are even more likely? or it will probably remain as a more straight-line winds event?
Yeah i guess it is kindof hard to predict and i've heard it could be close to those storms from a previous blog a few days ago. Then i think either Adam or Eric were talking about these could be close to the june 1998 storms which i don't know if i really remember lol..How much are those weather radios?
Justin is smart. Too bad the storms start so late. I'd like to see them during the day where there's alot more light so I can soak up the beauty! But I heard that there is a 35% the storm will produce tornadoes within 25mi of any given point. Can anyone confirm this?
And lol Justin... I used to have a weather radio. It was some shortband thing that I built myself from some kit. It got signals from anything you can imagine. But it caught on fire when I shorted it so no more radio... But all I need to do in case of a tornado is grab my turtles (I have an emergency box right next to their tank) grab my external hard drive (has a complete back up of my entire computer) and my blankie nad pillow! ROFL
The SPC has a percentage risk area out. To get there, put this in your browser
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Hover your cursor over tornado, wind, and hail to see the probabilities. -Eric Sorensen
There are empty tubes going up the slide at Magic Waters. That's funny! haha
Well the sun is gone so does that lower the risk now? But i know we do still have the rest of the day to have some sun.
I wonder if the magic waters employee knows we're all watching him
lol to funny i see some kids coming up on the thing now lol.
It looks sunny over there but really no sun in winnebago at all..i saw it trying to peak out..That will probably bring our storm chances down..
I see now that Minnesota has tornado watches now. Just thought i would update lol...
New Tornado Watch for Iowa now!
Suns out in full force now! earlier it didn't look like it was going to come back out which i guess means we could be in for a heck of a night!
WOW that is a huge watch area for iowa! Wonder how long before we get one!
I think the sun is confused on what it wants to do! It was out for awhile and now its gone again.
We now have a tornado watch until midnight for all of the area. This might get real bad. God forbid we don't get anything major.
Wait wait wait. God forbid we dont get anything means you are asking God for something to happen! LOL I know what you mean though.
NOAA Storm Prediction Center has us under tornado watch.
NOAA Mesoscale says its a storm with severe potential
WXForecaster has some bad news too. Here's the link for the satellite immage http://www.wxforecaster.com/Satellite/N_Illinois.html#
Im probably not going to check back here (well I may...) Good luck everyone and be safe!! (put some water bottles in the basement)
I wasn't meaning i want something to happen lol. Not at all...I'm not a big tornado fan, but i don't mind an occasional severe storm or something like with the lightening and stuff as long as no one is hurt in it. But tornadoes scare the poop outta me!
Good luck everyone tonight and i would suggest to just stay home where you know you can be safe!
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