First Atlantic hurricane of 2007: A week or two away?

We've gone quite a ways into the Atlantic Hurricane Season without a named tropical storm or hurricane. If the latest computer weather models are correct, we're just about done with the "tranquil tropics!"

Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea formed back on May 9th causing many doomsdayers to say that this would be a catastrophic season. Tropical Storm Barry lasted less than 48 hours on June 1st and 2nd before making landfall in Florida. When the best hurricane forecasters make their long-term predictions, I am the first to throw them out the window. After all, I know how hard it is to forecast seven days in advance, let alone the entire season! Another thing: it really only takes one massive hurricane making landfall to wreak havoc. Anybody remember Katrina? Nonetheless, early in the season most Meteorologists placed bets on this season being an active one.










The computer models are now hinting at more activity a week or two from now. The GFS computer model develops a Tropical Depression in the Middle Atlantic late early next week with it gaining tropical storm strength by midweek. The system is steered west-northwest toward Florida with modest upper-level wind shear. As a Bermuda High Pressure develops, it is pulled north into the Carolina coast. If this scenario occurs (looking at a model 16 days out is quite the crapshoot) it would bring a major hurricane into the US Eastern Seaboard by August 10th. Climatology does tell us that tropical activity increases almost exponentially in August.

If it happens, remember you heard it here first. -ERIC