Even though hurricane season doesn't officially end until the end of November, tropical storms and hurricanes have been known to form right up to the end. As we watch Noel churn off of Florida's southeast coast the threat of Noel gaining hurricane status is slim to none...and climatology has a lot to do with it.
The peak of hurricane season is early September when winds in all levels of the atmosphere are at their slowest in the Northern Hemisphere. This allows the storms to form and move west...then curving north around Bermuda High Pressure. This time of year it's different. Mid-latitude winds are increasing...providing the storm with shear. (Think of it as a hair cut with a little off the top.) It's harder for storms to get this far north, especially when you can get cold fronts down south into Florida. With Noel, we expect the circulation to get caught up in an old cold front, eventually getting a big push which will bring Noel back into the Atlantic where it'll die out.
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