The Storm Prediction Center (who forecasts severe weather events across the country including outlooks and severe weather watches) has put out a "moderate risk" of severe weather for the Upper Midwest for Thursday. Only a handful of times through the year will the center put out such a strongly worded outlook. The atmosphere will support large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes as low pressure develops over northeastern Missouri.Be ready for severe weather and keep checking the blog for updates. We'll fine-tune the forecast and add threat times as the situation unfolds. -ERIC
9 comments:
HERE IS A QUESTION, IS IT KINDA WEIRD FOR HAVING TORNNADOES IN OCTOBER?
It's a little out of the ordinary. We have our peak severe weather/tornado season in May and June...but there's a secondary season in the fall as the seasons change.
Eric Sorensen
WREX-TV
whats the new watch and warning systen the national weather service came out with on october 1st? (my name is anthony from dekalb)
i believe the new system outlines specific area that are warned instead of a whole county. like if only southern winnebago county was in danger, they will issue a warning graphically for just that portion instead of the entire county. eric or adam, correct me if i am wrong about that.
tony
Watch tonight at ten and I'll describe the change a little more in-depth. If you are asking, there's probably a lot of people out there that are wondering.
Thanks!
Eric Sorensen
WREX-TV
Okay, please educate me. I'm having trouble believing that there is enough "lift" in the atmosphere given the temps we've been having to generate the kind of large scale cumulonimbus (sp?) clouds needed to generate the kind of hail, tornados, etc. that the severe storm center is predicting.
I know there are lots of other things that go into generating severe weather, jet stream considerations, calculus problems that I don't even know how to do, etc. But is the sun really strong enough at this time of the year to create enough atmospheric instability to generate the kind of event they are predicting?
I am extremely skeptical.
The sun is just as strong in October as it is in March. This low pressure will be rapidly intensifying over the midwest on Thursday. There could be an outbreak of tornadoes in OK, KS, AR, and MO tomorrow. As the system lifts northeast (as its strengthening) it may produce tornadoes in IL, IN, MI, and WI on Thursday. Stay tuned. -ERIC
p.s. However, a lot of times these "well advertised" systems produce nothing. *rolling eyes*
I think as long as the sun is able to put off enough heat it can definately produce bad weather..Our weather has been so goofy the past 2 yrs or more that i wouldn't put anything past anything at all lol. Having almost 100 degree temps in oct. isn't always normal so i think anything is possible at anytime of the year! If we can get snowstorms in april we can definately get a tornado well into november i would think. The weather is just a mystery at times:)
You've got that right! In just six weeks, it will mark one year since the big snowstorm last year. So, anything can happen. We'll be watching the situation closely. The SPC is keeping us in a moderate risk of severe for Thursday.
Eric Sorensen
WREX-TV
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