Comparing Data

The closer a storm system gets the more trust one might put into a model. This I know for sure: the atmosphere will have cooled enough to change the precipitation from rain to snow by dinnertime Wednesday night. Whether the atmosphere is still energized enough to produce some showers is still up in the air.

I'm still expecting a mix of rain and snow to start Wednesday afternoon. Eventually it will change over into all snow. Each model is outputting the heavier precipitation at different times. The GFS model is expecting the wettest time frame to be tomorrow afternoon. The NAM model is expecting the wettest time frame to be tomorrow night. The graphic to the left is of the GFS model between 6pm and midnight. It shows light amounts (less than half an inch) of snow across the viewing area. The graphic to the right is of the NAM during the same period. It shows noticeably heavier amounts of snow (2 - 3 inches).

I am still expecting the worst travel time to occur late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. A lot of the snow will be melting on contact with the ground, but I would say a safe bet is still sticking with a slushy 1 to 2 inches of snow across the region.

If this storm system hit us in January or February we wouldn't be talking about it nearly as much. On the other hand, it is cause for concern since it is the first snowfall of the season, and it is happening during one of the busiest travel times of the year. If you are on the roadways in the near future, remember to be a little extra cautious and drive carefully and courteously. -ADAM