(image courtesy: accuweather.com) Operational weather computer models continue to indicate the potential for the first winter storm of the season Wednesday night into Thursday. One of the things we look for is consistency in the models. With the exception of the blip on the morning/evening models last Friday when the storm disappeared from the models, the GFS model has now given the same solution since last Wednesday...rain changing to snow (with accumulation here in Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin).The event is now getting a little closer and we can compare the GFS model with the others (NAM and Euro). The NAM and GFS are both very similar in developing low pressure in Arkansas (that would track northeast into the Great Lakes). The Euro's an outlyer, but may come in-line today or tomorrow with the wintry solution. Side note: If you believe the Euro, we'll see nothing more than a few wet snowflakes at the end...not nearly the magnitude of the other models.
If you have travel plans in Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, and Northern Missouri, you may want to have another plan for Thanksgiving now or move up your travel to Tuesday/Early Wednesday instead of Wednesday/Thursday...just in case this materializes. As far as accumulations go: we've got very warm ground temperatures so it's not likely to see more than four inches or so...but it has to do more with the track, available cold air, and moisture. We have to keep in mind that even heavy snow will have a tough time piling up initially because of the warm ground. But once it starts accumulating, it could pile up quickly. Unfortunately we really won't know the specifics on timing, amount of moisture, and guesses on accumulations until Monday evening at the earliest. It would be at that time that Winter Storm Watches would be issued (should the models maintain its current track). I'd say right now that our chance of having a white Thanksgiving is about 50/50. More to come! -ERIC
4 comments:
Okay, this is part observation and part question.
Do you think these computer models tend to overestimate the severity of storms in the upper midwest?
I think I've noticed that tendency. But maybe its just me.
You were right, i was looking at the GFS and NAM models tonight and they are completly different than the ones from this morning. I think we should still see some snow, but it probobly wont be 6 inches or anything like that. The storm looked like it had shifted to the northeast by a few hundred miles since this mornings forecast.
Do you know of any other links to where i could get weather information? It would be greatly appriciated.
Thanks!
Alec
I noticed that too, the GFS has the storm moving into southern ohio, so it looks like the storm may miss us again. Hopefully eric will give us more updates soon.
The GFS also is trimming back the available moisture with every new run. 1-3" seems safe but a lot of this will be melting upon contact. This is by no means a big storm...more like a white-grass type of event. -ERIC
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