One of the big reasons why we have received so much snow this winter is the La Nina taking place. Remember La Nina occurs when the waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. When this happens (as we've witnessed recently) it has a significant effect on global weather patterns. This La Nina event is expected to linger into the spring and it may directly impact our severe weather season.
Statistics have shown that during La Nina years, tornadic activity in the spring is enhanced in some locations across the upper Midwest. Among others, it includes all of Illinois and a large chunk of eastern Iowa. Statistics show a neutral bias across southern Wisconsin. What this all means is that we stand a great chance at higher than normal tornadic activity across the Stateline. This includes a larger number of days with tornadoes, and the tornadoes that do occur are likely to be stronger.
La Nina also typically plays a role in temperatures and precipitation. Overall, our temperatures will probably be a little bit below average. Our rainfall may also end up being a little bit below average. It sounds odd to say after the previous paragraph mentioned a busier than normal severe weather season. This is possible, because the storms producing the tornadoes are likely to be more supercellular in nature. Therefore, we won't have as many large batches and clusters of heavy rain (squall lines, derechos, and mesoscale convective systems).
The La Nina pattern is expected to pull out late this spring. That may signal a calmer than normal severe weather summer (late June through Labor Day). Regardless Eric, Justin, and myself will be ready to give you the latest updates and information when severe weather strikes. -ADAM
4 comments:
That's interesting, that La Nina can give us more snow in the winter, but less precipitation in the spring.
In a way, maybe that is a good thing that we don't have excessive rainfall, maybe that will reduce major flooding possibilities from melting snow and melting of ice jams. I sure hope we don't get tornadoes, but if early january was any indication, we may be in some serious trouble.
I've read about La Nina before, and Yes. it does look like spring could be pretty rough here. Although I have never seen a tornado before, it would look interesting. (well, at least from a distance).
the way things have been going lately, i wouldnt be surprised to see tornadoes in spring, and then a drought with a week straight of 100s in july. Do you have a tempurature outlook for this summer?
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