Friday, February 29, 2008

Model placement for Monday/Tuesday storm suspect

Models continue to indicate a strong area of low pressure tracking along Gulf Coast into the Tennessee River valley for the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe. While the GFS keeps all of the precip away from the area, I have a feeling that this is an incorrect track. For one, the Deep South is going through an extreme drought. With extremely dry soils, the amount of precip the models is depicting is very suspect. Another reason I am leary with this model solution is the fact that it's probably been nine months since any low has taken this route. I have a feeling this track will be shifted northwest in coming days. We'll be watching the models closely as a track from TX to OH may be more likely...and would bring a major snow back to the southern Great Lakes. Justin will be following this all weekend. Don't forget to stop by! -ERIC

1 comment:

Justin said...

So lets just say IF this tracked further northwest, whats the worst case scenario for snow, ice, etc? .. and the timing. When you showed that graphic with the 70 degree tempuratures last March, I thought I was dreaming... BRING THE 70s! Id even be happy with 50