Storms this evening, then wintry weather returns

Update 10:35 p.m.
Latest indications are that the swath of rain pushing into northwest Missouri and southern Iowa, along with the scattered showers in eastern Iowa, will move into our area before the changeover happens. Temperatures will fall rapidly overnight but I still expect them to be just above freezing until 5-6 a.m. per what's been happening elsewhere behind the front. I don't see any reason to expect that trend to change. The commute in the morning still will be rather slick, so take it easy.

Update 8:20 p.m.
The main line of storms has slipped generally to the northeast and the majority of those heavy storms will remain to our north. However, the whole line is still pushing east and a few small cells are moving through Stephenson County. While they are small, they may still put out a brief downpour. It looks like we'll catch a break later before another slug of moisture comes into the area overnight.

Update 7:00 p.m.

Some of our counties are now under a Dense Fog Advisory. I can tell you that out here north of Winnebago, the visibility is absolutely terrible. I went into town to get food and couldn't see lights more than maybe 75 yards away, and the center line was not visible more than 10 feet ahead of me.

I have images of all the advisories we are currently under. As far as snowfall is concerned... looks like the morning commute will be sloppy. I'm going with around an inch here in Rockford. Locations to the northwest of town will see more. Looking at how temperatures and radar trends have been going, the main thrust of sub-freezing temperatures is lagging behind the brunt of precipitation. So while temperatures will quickly fall after midnight, we will still be having a very chilly rain. Right now, I believe the changeover will occur somewhere around 5-6 a.m. with sleet turning into wet snow. As always, I'll have a much clearer idea over the next few hours as I see if the recent trends continue.

Update 6:00 p.m.
All of our Illinois counties are now under a Flash Flood Watch or will be very soon.

Update 5:30 p.m.
The Storm Prediction Center put out a statement regarding the line of storms in eastern Iowa. No severe weather watch is anticipated. However, the stronger cells may produce gusty winds and small hail. Brief heavy rain will be our primary concern because of today's snowmelt.

Update: 4:55 p.m.
A line of showers and most likely thunderstorms has recently developed in eastern Iowa ahead of the cold front. The line is pretty thin and we'll have to see how it progresses eastward in the next several hours.

Update: 4:00 p.m.
Boone, Ogle, and Winnebago Counties have been added to the Winter Weather Advisory.

Update: 3:30 p.m.
The counties shaded in purple are under a Winter Weather Advisory tonight through mid-morning Monday. After the cold front passes tonight, the rain will change over to a wintry mix, then snow.

Snowfall amounts are going to be quite difficult to nail down because of the timing of the changeover, the warmth we got today, and how much precipitation will still even be around. I'll have a snowfall graphic in a little while.

Original Post:
I'm looking at the current temperatures across the Midwest and am becoming jealous. Moline is at 64, Des Moines has 63, Peoria has 67, Burlington is at 70... however, my jealousy evaporates once I realize that central Iowa is under a winter weather advisory tonight. Talk about crashing temperatures - temperatures are falling 20 degrees in two hours!

The Milwaukee Weather Service office tells me that they'll be issuing a winter weather advisory for southern Wisconsin. I'll have more regarding tonight's cold front (which is the reason for the upcoming advisory) and Tuesday's snow chances later this afternoon after I've looked at all my fancy charts and graphs. :)

-JUSTIN