Friday, September 26, 2008

Yes, I did spell out *that* word...

If you missed the noon show, I mentioned that the latest computer model runs had made a big change from before and are now holding off the big movement of cold air until the end of next week. I'm not buying into it yet, but if it does occur... light, wet s-n-o-w (I don't want to say it yet) is possible somewhere in the Midwest in a week's time.

The GFS computer model suggests the possibility of what could be light lake-effect snow on the southern end of Lake Michigan. Temperatures aloft could support it... but how cold will we be at the surface? Average highs a week from now would be in the upper 60s. Even upper 40s would be 20 degrees below average... and that big of a difference from what's typical is fairly extreme. Not unheard of, though.

Eric will be taking a good look at this change in the forecast this afternoon, and I'll be watching it closely this weekend. After about two weeks of quiet, warm weather... anything cooler than normal will feel especially chilly.

5 comments:

Justin said...

*Gasp*

bluedaisy said...

You should have seen the look of shock when I gave my opinion the other day at work that it would snow "soon"...(that's a very unscientific and untrained opinion stated just 'off the cuff')! What is the earliest we've seen snow in the stateline area or do records only indicate measurable snowfall (stuff that sticks)?

Anthony said...

dont say snow, thats a four letter badword for me!

Justin Gehrts said...

The average first date of measurable snowfall (at least 0.1") is November 15. The average first date of a trace of snow is November 2. The earliest date RFD has received a trace of snow was October 6, 1964.

bluedaisy said...

Thanks Justin!!
I took pictures of the first "snow" last year and the year before and remember they were in mid-October...Sorry Anthony about the four letter word usage, but I LOVE the white stuff...at least until I have to drive in it! :)