Outside of "today's" forecast the other timeframe that folks care the most about is the weekend prediction. Saturday's forecast seems clear cut: ample sunshine with seasonable temperatures in the 60s. Sunday's forecast details are a bit more murky.
Not only do the models differ from each other, but the consecutive runs of each model are flip-flopping as well. I have posted above the estimated precipitation by the GFS model for Sunday morning. The graphic on the right is from 0Z or last night, while the graphic on the left is from 12Z (lunchtime today). The slightly older run of the GFS keeps us mostly dry, while pushing the bulk of the wet weather into Wisconsin. The most recent run of the GFS produces a large batch of showers with some spots picking up over a quarter of an inch of liquid.
The reason for the indecisiveness is the fact that the core of the storm system will still be spinning over the western Plains. It is difficult to tell how far away showers will pop up along this warm front. During this time, a strong area of high pressure just north of the Great Lakes will be trying to push the activity back to the west.
In summary, if you have big plans for Sunday and you are flexible, I would push that event up to Saturday to be on the safe side. If you can't switch your schedule around, keep tabs on the track of this rainmaker over the next couple of days. The picture should become a little clearer soon. -ADAM
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