Warm front challenges

Warm fronts can be tricky business. Under the right circumstances - like today - they carry big forecast bust potential. I'll admit that I got a little burned today since we were considerably cooler than what I was forecasting.

So, what's the problem? South of the warm front, we have warmer, more humid air. Not surprising! As that air flows north over the warm front, we get clouds and showers. That's also pretty typical. The complications arise when we try to figure out just how far north the warm front will get, and how far north it gets will affect how warm a place will get.

Let's take a look at the Midwest surface map from this evening. South of the warm front, temperatures were in the 70s. Highs even topped off in the 80s in quite a few locales today! North of the warm front, temperatures were held in the 50s. In a fairly short distance, there's a 15-20°+ temperature difference! Moline shot up 15 degrees in three hours today... partly because the showers moved away, and partly because the warm air became more entrenched.

It looks like the warm front should finally push well to our north and usher in temperatures in the 70s for many of us. Our northeastern towns (Lake Geneva, etc.) will have more trouble getting warm tomorrow since they'll be closer to the warm front... while our southwestern towns (Sterling, etc.) will get into the 70s more easily.