Ah, the challenges of snowfall forecasting.
This is the 8pm surface plot from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. There's a low pressure centered a bit north of Des Moines. This is somewhat problematic to my snowfall forecast because I was expecting the main low to be further south.
Because of a more northerly low pressure track, the cold air won't filter in as quickly, among other things. As a result, snowfall amounts look to be generally up to an inch along and north of US 20. Our far northern communities have the best shot at receiving about an inch of snow. The Rockford area will probably see between one-half and one inch of snow.
Regardless, area roadways may be slick for the morning commute since the snow will be a rather wet one. Bridges and overpasses have a higher risk of being slippery.
3 comments:
I noticed the graphic changed from 1-3" to 1-2" to near 1". I was hoping for a decent amount of snow... maybe next time.
Haha, you're very astute. I decided that, since a 3" total was very unlikely, to just go with 1-2". And now that it appears most places will only get 1" at most (except for well to our north and northeast), I'd lower it to a more targeted total.
I was thinking around an inch in RFD to begin with, so "up to" an inch isn't a huge change.
Don't worry... we have a potentially long winter ahead of us. I say "potentially" because I don't want to give away our Winter Outlook. :)
Is there still a shot at a snow storm in the first week of december? It dosent look like it from the wxforecaster gfs model! lol
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