Thursday, December 18, 2008




(10:33:57 AM) nwsbot: DVN: Mount Carroll [Carroll Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.0 INCH at 10:32 AM CST -- storm total. mixture of snow and sleet.

(10:30:55 AM)
nwsbot: DVN: 1 E Shannon [Carroll Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY SNOW of M4.5 INCH at 10:28 AM CST -- storm total.

(10:30:34 AM)
nwsbot: LOT: Marengo [Mchenry Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M6.0 INCH at 10:10 AM CST --

(10:09:04 AM)
nwsbot: MKX: Beloit [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports HEAVY SNOW of M7.0 INCH at 09:30 AM CST --

Viewer near Beloit reports 9.6".

(10:00:51 AM)
nwsbot: DVN: 4 Nnw Lanark [Carroll Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY SNOW of M5.5 INCH at 09:53 AM CST -- total snow on the ground is 9.0 inches.

(9:49:18 AM)
nwsbot: LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M7.0 INCH at 08:56 AM CST -- rockford east side - 3 inches in 3 hours between 6 and 9 am

(9:39:41 AM)
nwsbot: LOT: Belvidere [Boone Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M7.5 INCH at 09:23 AM CST -- 1.8 inches of snow during the past 2 hours - 11 inches on the ground

(9:22:43 AM)
nwsbot: DVN: Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY SNOW of M9.0 INCH at 09:20 AM CST -- 9.0 new snow, 11.0 snow depth.

(9:16:27 AM)
nwsbot: LOT: Woodstock [Mchenry Co, IL] amateur radio reports SNOW of M9.6 INCH at 09:08 AM CST -- at route 14 and route 47. snow still falling - snow rate 1/2 inch per hour.

(9:15:44 AM)
nwsbot: MKX: 2 S La Grange [Walworth Co, WI] trained spotter reports HEAVY SNOW of M9.0 INCH at 08:49 AM CST -- 1.5 inches over the past 2 hours.

(9:13:50 AM)
nwsbot: LOT: Polo [Ogle Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M3.0 INCH at 08:54 AM CST -- coop poli2 reports 3 inches of new snow overnight including a 0.5 inch base of sleet or ice.

(9:11:22 AM)
nwsbot: LOT: Oregon [Ogle Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M3.0 INCH at 09:00 AM CST -- 3.0 inches snow and sleet - 5 inches on the ground - 0.86 water equivalent

(9:08:55 AM)
nwsbot: LOT: 1 Ne Cary [Mchenry Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M6.3 INCH at 08:30 AM CST -- 1.4 inches of snow between 630 and 830 am - 7 inches of snow on the ground

(9:07:06 AM)
nwsbot: DVN: Hanover [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M6.0 INCH at 09:06 AM CST --

(9:06:12 AM)
nwsbot: DVN: 1 Nw Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY SNOW of M7.5 INCH at 09:05 AM CST --

(9:00:16 AM)
nwsbot: DVN: 4 Sse Winslow [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY SNOW of E9.8 INCH at 08:55 AM CST -- storm total

(8:58:55 AM)
nwsbot: DVN: Galena [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of E7.3 INCH at 08:57 AM CST --

(8:26:34 AM)
nwsbot: LOT: Lake In The Hills [Mchenry Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M5.0 INCH at 07:17 AM CST -- still snowing

(8:23:16 AM)
nwsbot: LOT: Kirkland [De Kalb Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M3.3 INCH at 07:20 AM CST --

(8:17:26 AM)
nwsbot: LOT: Huntley [Mchenry Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M3.1 INCH at 08:05 AM CST -- still snowing with drifting snow

(8:10:07 AM)
nwsbot: LOT: Polo [Ogle Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M5.0 INCH at 08:05 AM CST -- snow mixed with a little sleet - some drifting snow

(8:10:35 AM)
nwsbot: DVN: Fulton [Whiteside Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.3 INCH at 08:09 AM CST -- mixture of snow sleet and freezing rain.

(8:07:06 AM)
nwsbot: MKX: Edgerton [Rock Co, WI] public reports HEAVY SNOW of E10.0 INCH at 07:42 AM CST --

(8:07:06 AM)
nwsbot: MKX: Beloit [Rock Co, WI] public reports HEAVY SNOW of M7.5 INCH at 07:20 AM CST --

(8:02:14 AM)
nwsbot: LOT: Crystal Lake [Mchenry Co, IL] airplane pilot reports SNOW of M6.1 INCH at 07:55 AM CST -- steady light to moderate snow still falling

(7:56:57 AM)
nwsbot: DVN: 4 Nne Stockton [Jo Daviess Co, IL] co-op observer reports HEAVY SNOW of M9.5 INCH at 07:55 AM CST -- total on the ground is 10 inches.

(7:45:24 AM)
nwsbot: DVN: Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY SNOW of M8.0 INCH at 07:44 AM CST --

(7:43:53 AM)
nwsbot: MKX: Janesville [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports HEAVY SNOW of M8.6 INCH at 07:39 AM CST --

(7:35:25 AM)
nwsbot: LOT: Belvidere [Boone Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.8 INCH at 07:27 AM CST --

(7:33:28 AM)
nwsbot: LOT: 2 N Winnebago [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of M4.5 INCH at 07:29 AM CST -- measured at wrex

(7:19:06 AM)
nwsbot: DVN: Galena [Jo Daviess Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M7.0 INCH at 07:18 AM CST -- still snowing.

(7:18:22 AM)
nwsbot: LOT: Woodstock [Mchenry Co, IL] amateur radio reports SNOW of M8.5 INCH at 07:08 AM CST -- rt 14 and 47

(7:11:19 AM)
iembot: MKX: 3 S La Grange [Walworth Co, WI] trained spotter reports HEAVY SNOW of M7.5 INCH at 07:04 AM CST --

(6:46:05 AM)
nwsbot: MKX: Janesville [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports HEAVY SNOW of M8.0 INCH at 06:45 AM CST -- 1.3 inches last hour

(6:16:15 AM)
nwsbot: LOT: Winnebago [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.0 INCH at 06:04 AM CST -- mix of snow and sleet

(6:03:34 AM)
nwsbot: LOT: N De Kalb [Dekalb Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.5 INCH at 06:02 AM CST -- combination snow and sleet

(5:56:12 AM)
nwsbot: LOT: Oregon [Ogle Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M2.0 INCH at 05:55 AM CST -- mixure of snow and sleet

(5:56:04 AM)
nwsbot: MKX: Lake Geneva [Walworth Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.8 INCH at 05:40 AM CST --

(5:41:32 AM)
nwsbot: MKX: Janesville [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports HEAVY SNOW of M6.7 INCH at 05:36 AM CST --

(4:44:57 AM)
nwsbot: MKX: Janesville [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.5 INCH at 04:39 AM CST --

(4:18:38 AM) nwsbot: LOT: Se Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M5.8 INCH at 04:14 AM CST -- relayed via wrex

(4:18:38 AM) nwsbot: LOT: 2 N Winnebago [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of M2.8 INCH at 04:05 AM CST -- measured at wrex

(3:45:43 AM) nwsbot: MKX: Janesville [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.8 INCH at 03:40 AM CST --

(3:44:43 AM)
nwsbot: DVN: Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.5 INCH at 03:30 AM CST -- mixed sleet and snow so far. still snowing at this time.

(3:07:04 AM)
nwsbot: LOT: 2 N Winnebago [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of M2.4 INCH at 03:03 AM CST -- measurement from wrex.

(3:01:55 AM)
nwsbot: MKX: Janesville [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.0 INCH at 02:48 AM CST --

(2:20:12 AM) iembot: LOT: 2 N Winnebago [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports HEAVY SNOW of M2.0 INCH at 02:13 AM CST -- measured from wrex.

2:15am Update - The sleet that we received between 11:45 and 1:30am has really kept snowfall amounts in check with 2-4 inches seen so far. (Why we've seen so much sleet remains a mystery to us (and other mets as well)). We are forecasting this storm to transition into a snow maker for the remainder of the morning. An additional 5 or 6 inches will be possible by the time this is done around noon. Total snowfall accumulations will then range from 7-10 inches. A few isolated amounts higher than that are possible if we get thundersnow to form again. -ES

(1:51:00 AM) iembot: MKX: Janesville [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.2 INCH at 01:46 AM CST -- 1.2 inches in the past hour

(12:49:51 AM) nwsbot: LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports SLEET of U0.00 INCH at 12:22 AM CST -- combination of sleet and freezing rain.

(12:53:12 AM) nwsbot: LOT: Machesney Park [Winnebago Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M1.5 INCH at 12:22 AM CST --

(1:05:59 AM) nwsbot: LOT: Belvidere [Boone Co, IL] public reports HEAVY SNOW of M1.8 INCH at 01:03 AM CST -- precipitation turned to sleet.

(1:07:27 AM) nwsbot: LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M1.8 INCH at 12:57 AM CST -- combination of snow and sleet

(12:57:02 AM) iembot: MKX: Lake Geneva [Walworth Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M1.5 INCH at 12:48 AM CST -- fell in 1 hour

(12:19:40 AM) iembot: DVN: Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M1.5 INCH at 12:14 AM CST -- sleet mixed in.

(12:10:00 AM) nwsbot: DVN: Stockton [Jo Daviess Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M1.5 INCH at 12:02 AM CST -- snow accumulation of 1.5 inches fell in 45 minutes with the flakes the size of nickels. moderate snow currently falling.

11:51pm - Davis Junction 1 inch within the past two hours. Still snowing.

11:41pm - Storm Prediction Center issues another mesoscale discussion regarding heavy snowfall rates.


(11:33:56 PM) iembot: DVN: Stockton [Jo Daviess Co, IL] broadcast media reports HEAVY SNOW of E2.0 INCH at 11:32 PM CST -- in the last 1.5 hours. still snowing heavily.

(10:29:03 PM) iembot: LOT: Oregon [Ogle Co, IL] broadcast media reports SLEET of M0.30 INCH at 10:22 PM CST --

(10:10:14 PM) iembot: LOT: De Kalb [De Kalb Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of U0.0 INCH at 10:05 PM CST -- snow just started.

(9:53:08 PM) iembot: DVN: Cordova [Rock Island Co, IL] trained spotter reports SLEET of E0.06 INCH at 09:50 PM CST -- 1/16 inch glaze. mix of sleet and freezing rain since 8 pm. roads are treacherous.

9:53pm - Report from Franklin Grove (Lee Co.) that a mix of sleet/snow has just changed over to sleet/freezing rain. For those wondering about the live chat, we'll have it up in a short while.

(9:43:18 PM)
iembot: LOT: Paw Paw [Lee Co, IL] co-op observer reports SLEET of U0.00 INCH at 18 Dec, 09:42 AM CST -- just started sleeting.

8:25pm - There haven't been too many reports of thunder with this batch of precip moving in from the southwest. It's not completely snow (as FutureTrack indicates). Precip will likely be freezing rain/sleet as it begins for Whiteside, Lee, southern Carroll, and southwestern Ogle Co. We're still expecting all snow for the US20 corridor (including Rockford). Will stay with going forecast. -ES

7:55pm - Moderate freezing rain has been reported within the past few minutes in the Moline, Illinois area. It appears there is just enough warm air aloft to melt the snowflakes on their way down to the surface. What is amazing with this is the fact that temperatures are only in the teens. We will be closely monitoring this trend as it creeps into Whiteside County within the next few minutes. Should we continue seeing the rain/icing reports come in we may be in for a more dire situation at the onset of this winter storm. -ES

6:55pm - The Storm Prediction Center has issued a mesoscale discussion concerning the developing intense precipitation. It increases my thinking that somebody will see thundersnow within the next few hours!

4:15pm - I just completed the evening forecast package. I believe we'll see some flurries or light snow develop before 10pm with the real, accumulating snow increasing greatly after midnight. Areas of thunder seem likely with some of the heavier bands. Latest guidance suggests the biggest accumulations will be from Freeport, through Rockford, over to Harvard where some 12-14 inch reports will be possible. All other areas will be in the 6-12 inch range. To reiterate: Heavy snow is expected after midnight and before noon Friday. Significant blowing and drifting is possible making for impossible driving conditions. All unnecessary driving should be completed by this evening with only emergency travel for much of the day Friday. This event will end during the afternoon hours of Friday with additional light snow/flurries accumulating up to an inch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. An additional 3-6 inches of snow is possible for late-Saturday into Sunday. Near white-out conditions may occur at that time...obviously will take these storms one at a time. -ES

3:00pm - Checking the progress of this winter storm we find a few interesting things. First, it appears that the most intense snow will come after midnight. A precip-start time will be late-evening (probably after 7pm for Whiteside Co.). Precip will overspread the area from SW to NE with areas around Harvard the last to see the precip tonight.

Over the past 24 hours worth of model runs, the intensity forecast has not changed one bit! Our going forecast for 6-12 inches holds for now. We are working on our evening forecast right now. Should there be anything that changes, we'll let you know right here. (Push refresh for the latest blog posts and radar views.)

20 comments:

tony said...

Hey eric, what are the odds right now of possibly seeing thundersnow. Also, I have to work at 7am tomorrow morning, is there a chance I could still make it to work, or do you think the roads will be too horrendous to even try to make it.

WxMidwest said...

Wow, This is the most insane Winter Weather Wave-Train we have seen since December 2000. If this keeps up we could beat out Dec-00 for most snow in the month ever, look at the extended -PNA trof into the midwest/plains, and it's not going away any time soon. We have Pac Storms, Clippers, Ideal Jet Position, and an open transport of moisture from the GOM. Nothing Short of an amazing pattern. Look at the 2 storms after this blockbuster, we could see pretty high snow ratio's even if we get limited QPF. The 13 Weather Team is going to be extremely busy until Christmas. I will be watching.....

Justin said...

The Chicago NWS said theres a chance of some thundersnow

tony said...

I am just worried about the morning commute, although I have a very good feeling it will not be good at all.

ILhunter said...

I love this weather blog thing...it helps satisfy the wierd weather obsession I have. The constant updates really hit the spot. THANKS!

Anonymous said...

Holy Cow!
Just looked at your snow graphic on the right-- I know you're very busy, but Dubuque will see 13 inches of snow or even... more?

That is absolutely incredible. Galena is forecast as 13.0" of snow... and it is not even in that 'pink' shading. How much snow does the pink shading represent?

That is an incredible amount of snow.

I was having my doubts that this was going to be a typical winter storm, giving us 7, 8, maybe 9 inches of snow... But 13, 14, maybe 15-16 inches of HEAVY, WET snow? Wow.

I know the potential of thundersnow is there, but just how likely is it appearing?

tony said...

I will say this much, since this blog has been going and since I can remember snowstorms, I don't think I have ever seen on 7 day outlook 3 winter storms. I am really starting to wonder with this update if I would have a remote chance of getting into work tomorrow morning. Also eric, will the chat be going later on tonight.

Eric Sorensen said...

Because this is a short duration storm (12 hours) I feel that the 6-8 will be likely for all of the area. The stripe of heaviest snow will be along US20. Will upload the new snowfall graphic shortly (I just moved the 12"+ amount south by about 10 miles). -ES

Carrie said...

Good Evening All..I am home..settled in and ready for this big snow event..will be keeping up with the blog tonight and tomorrow with all of the updates from Eric, Justin and Adam. What a great weather team we have at WREX. Hope anyone who has to venture out this evening or tomorrow drives safely.

tony said...

I know I am going to get up about 6am and get on this blog to see how road conditions are and decide whether to go to work or not.

tony said...

Eric,any chance the chat will open later tonight as this storm approaches.

Anonymous said...

Live Chat, Live Chat, Live Chat...
The crowd chanted.

Just kidding.

But, I do think it is crazy that this storm could give some areas one-third of their average annual snowfall, and WINTER HASN'T BEGUN YET. :)

bryce4455 said...

Wow so belvidere and rockford could get hit pretty bad. i think its a good idea to have a live chat,, or at least sometime tonight whenever you have time. thanks WREX for all the updates!!!

bryce4455 said...

will there be any breaks in this storm?

Justin Gehrts said...

There will be a chat sometime after I get into work... just woke up from a recharging nap. Getting ready to be in this for the long haul...

bryce4455 said...

are you still predicting 10-12 inches for rockford and belvidere? or will this become an ice/steet event more than snow??

Anonymous said...

Hi guys,

I am snug in the house with my dogs and a delicious hot chocolate. Telecommuting tomorrow. Ready for this snow, or at least as ready as I'll ever be.

Since I know you guys will be wanting snow reports, I got my primitive little snow measuring device ready (it helps to put it out a few hours before it starts snowing so that it is the same temp as the ground by the time the snow starts). It is a piece of flat plywood that I can put on top of already existing snow ... that way when I stick a ruler (or yardstick!) down as far as it will go after its done snowing and it hits the plywood, I know it is only measuring snow that fell since I put the plywood out. Primitive maybe, but it works for me.

Now I will just curl up with my dogs and that hot chocolate and contemplate the joys of sturdy walls and central heat (and maybe sleep a little) until its time to go out and start shoveling.

Thanks for all you do ... I really do think the 13 Weather Team delivers the very best weather info in the stateline area... and it is appreciated!

tony said...

So is what we see on futuretrack going to be the big show. Looks like it is right on our doorstep.

tony said...

I am going to stay up as long as I can. What time should chat be going.

Carrie said...

I can confirm the sleet here in Lee County..I can here it against the window..