10pm update - Upped snowfall amounts with the six inch line roughly running along I-88 corridor. Ice accumulation will be pushed slightly south of there. (This scenario can be thought of as a blessing as snow doesn't weigh down trees and power lines as much as ice.)
9:30pm update - New evening models are coming in with a trend toward slowing this system down. We may not see the full impact of this storm in the Rockford metro until after midnight Friday morning. The models are also trending toward a shift to the south by about 25-30 miles. This would mean we would have to bring down the ice potential for our southern viewing area. The intensity of this system has not changed so the going forecast for snow will hold. We may tweak the ice forecast down just a bit in the coming hours. Once the complete suite of evening models comes in we may tweak things minutely by early Thursday morning's shift.
Major winter storm to affect the region beginning early Thursday afternoon, ending late Friday morning. Significant accumulations of ice (south) and snow (central and north) will be possible during this time. Please make necessary travel tonight and early Thursday as wintry conditions may prevent all travel.As Winter Storm Warnings get issued in preparation for Thursday night/Friday's winter storm, I want to get a preliminary snowfall forecast out there. Areas north of US20 will most likely be snow for the entire event where a healthy 6-12 inches is likely.
I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few 13 inch reports, mainly in Rock and Walworth Counties. As we head south through our viewing area there will be more of a wintry mix taking place. Unfortunately either you're dealing with almost double-digit-inch snowfall amounts or ice accumulations. South of I-88 there will be a real chance for major power interruptions with more than 1/2 inch of ice in the forecast.
14 comments:
Is there a best case scenario thats possible?
Eric or Justin...it looks as though Dixon might lose power based on the graph at a possible 1/2 inch of ice? Just trying to prepare for this..
I would say anything over 1/4" ice is gonna cause some power outages. Eric (I think) had a graphic last year discussing how much ice on a powerline weighs, Eric you want to dig that up??
From Wikipedia
Freezing rain often causes major power outages. When the ice layer exceeds 0.2", tree limbs with branches heavily coated in ice can break off under the enormous weight and fall onto power lines. Windy conditions, when present, will exacerbate the damage.
Oh BOY!!
Las Vegas currently has 3" of snow (Henderson, NV) and could get up to 6" before the night is through! I assume this is the storm headed our way. 6" in VEGAS! It is the apocalypse I say :)
Thanks for the update!
I was getting nervous...
And, surprising little or no activity on the comments tonight, in the wake of a storm that will dump more than a foot of snow in some areas.
Well, the weather channels over here point to: 8" of snow for DBQ, one points to 14.5" of snow for DBQ, and another points to about 10.7" of snow for Dubuque...
Do you think it's possible Dubuque could get hammered with a foot of snow or slightly more?
And what changes do you expect will have been made to the forecast (if any) by the time I've woken up?
Since it is going slower, will it also dump more snow on the area, thanks!
This is a dangerous situation, and I am glad we have meteorologists as wonderful as you to continually update us!
Dubuque: the onset is delayed however the whole storm's duration hasn't changed. As far as travel is concerned it doesn't matter whether its 8 inches or 12...you can't go anywhere.
Brian: look back in our archives to find that graphic. I remember making it after we had a great question from a viewer. Power lines really get heavy when they're weighted down.
Thankfully this storm's ice potential is shifting south of I-80.
I can tell people preparing for this storm. Our walmart was jam packed all night with people stocking up. Eric, I have to work at 7am on friday, do you think this storm will still be in full force around then.
I for one am very thankful that the ice potential is moving south of I-88..I am however confused by exactract showing an accumulated snowfall by fri at 6:00pm for Dixon as 3.2 but we are in a 6-12" for the forecast.
When on Friday will it be possible to travel?
Tony - 7am Friday does not look good.
Carrie - ExacTrack is just one computer model. We tend to agree with it, although it was doing more sleet/ice than what it now looks like. So, based on the recent trends from other models, Eric adjusted the snowfall amounts since sleet/ice looks to be less of a factor.
Justin - the later in the day, the (hopefully) better it will be.
Hi - I miss the forecast as I am always driving home from work when it is on. Can someone define "Thundersnow"? My simplistic weather mind says it is snow with thunder...is there more significance than that? Hopefully I'll be home before the majority of the snow falls tomorrow night. Otherwise I may be camping out on a futon at a WalMart if I can make it there!
Yup, it's snow with thunder... although when that occurs, you can plan on snowfall rates of 1-3" per hour.
Thank you Justin, the 3.2 that that one model was showing seemed to low for a storm of this magnatude..I wondered if some of the original forecast ice/sleet had to do with that. Thank you to you and Eric and Adam for all of your hard work and dedication..I only trust the WREX weather team.
Ok thank you justin. I was just wondering because if it is as bad as predicted I am just wondering if I may possibly have to call in to work if it is too dangerous.
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