The snow I'm going to focus on is Tuesday's snowstorm potential. You may recall us talking about how the models poorly handle some of these systems several days out; they originally are forecast to occur well to our east, but over the course of a few days, the models trend further and further northwest with the system. We were thinking the exact same situation would happen with Tuesday's snow; the past few days, the models have shown a big storm riding up the East Coast. We left snow in the forecast, though, because past experience has told us not to buy into that scenario.
Today's model runs have done precisely what we expected they would eventually do. The first image is last night's GFS model run, valid for Tuesday evening. The second is this afternoon's GFS model run, valid also for Tuesday evening. In the first image, the low is somewhere around New Orleans, en route to the Eastern Seaboard. In the second image, the low is way up in the Bootheel of Missouri. That's obviously a significant change - but one we were expecting.Granted, there is still much time for this all to change - but this is a trend that we've seen time and time again. I'll be watching how this evolves this weekend, because it has the potential to produce a significant winter situation in or very near our area.
9 comments:
Will tuesdays storm be all snow or is that still up in the air?
It looks pretty imminent!
If it shifts as much northwest as it did today, the snow will be centered over Northern Illinois.
And, hopefully it is all snow?
Not an icy mix?
And, if this situation did play out, when would this begin and end, thanks!
One more question--
If this does end up, worst case scenario, which it looks like it will (ballpark) how much snow are we looking at?
Advisory?
Winter Storm Warning?
Blizzard Warning?
Precipitation type certainly bears some watching. I'm currently sticking with all snow, although that may require adjustment in the coming days.
I'm looking at the latest data and it's continuing to push the low track to the northwest. I don't recall if I mentioned this recently, but the going theory is that the warm Lakes have something of an "attractive" force. I'll spare you all the gory meteorological details. :)
Wow that snow is coming hard. It didnt take long at all for roads to become slick
I know it is. I was out in it about 20 minutes ago and the wind is really whipping it around. Looked like a ground blizzard.
I think I buying myself a horse, I hope it can stop on ice lol
I should mention this horse is going to have everything, AM/FM Radio with CD changer, heating for the winter/and cool in the summer, what a horse, I tell ya lol
Dubuquer - Far too early to try to pinpoint details. The indication is for snow sometime on Tuesday. I tend to favor a slower model solution that brings in precip mostly later in the day, but there's still plenty of time for timing to change.
Precip type now becoming an issue. If it remains all snow, it looks like it could be a very heavy, very wet snow. However, there's the possibility of a rain/snow mix. Depends on how much warm air can actually make it up this far north.
Regarding advisory type - again, MUCH too early to even think about that. FYI, forecast snowfall amounts have absolutely zero bearing on whether or not a blizzard warning is issued. It's completely possible to have a blizzard and not have a single cloud in the sky. The criteria are based only on wind speed, visibility (with the criteria forecast to be met for 3+ hours, if I recall correctly).
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