Update for potential winter storm

Update 10:42pm: The evening models have come in. The NAM and GFS models are fortunately starting to gel in terms of the placement and speed of the surface low. They paint a picture that would lead to more of a wintry mix/rain and less snow. This is a trend that will need to be monitored; however, I am not going to knee-jerk react and immediately lower my snowfall forecast. I prefer to see two consecutive model runs that show similar situations before I trend in a particular direction. Adam will have the latest information on 13News Today and at 13News at Noon.

Original Post: Sorry this update is coming later than what it otherwise would have been. I had be a judge for Stateline's Got Talent - wasn't originally supposed to, but it was a lot of fun. Many excellent acts... I really recommend checking it out during Rockton Christmas Walk next December.

Anyway, back to business. The Winter Storm Watch is still set to begin tomorrow night. That's when a wintry mix is set to develop. It looks like just about everybody will have a changeover to rain, except perhaps our far northern towns. The risk of ice tomorrow is fairly low because temperatures will be rising, and a changeover to rain would help melt any ice. Still, be sure to be wary of any slick spots, especially on bridges and overpasses. Colder air then spills in Tuesday morning and changes our precipitation over to all snow.

To the left is my snowfall forecast. Here's the complication... the timing of a changeover to snow is absolutely crucial. I'm not exaggerating when I say that if the temperature is 1 or 2° warmer or colder than forecast between the ground and 5,000 feet in the air, our snowfall potential changes greatly. If temperatures remain slightly warmer, then we would experience much less snow. If temperatures are a little colder, then snowfall amounts could be much higher.

I've said it before and I'll say it again... this is a potential winter storm. We still need a few more model runs that have actual data of the developing system. That will help us begin to pin things down in greater detail. For the time being, be ready for a very messy day of weather on Tuesday.

Also, please do not talk about what other stations are doing; they have their own methods for forecasting and we have our own. I've pruned numerous comments that specifically mention others' forecasts.