Keeping the storms at bay

Remember last week when there was talk of a potential winter storm in our neck of the woods? Well, there's still going to be one... but it's going to stay south of here!

As Eric discussed a few days ago, we look at where the "baroclinic zone" is located to help us determine winter storm tracks. That baroclinic zone typically lines up near the position of the jet stream, which is why we say that cool air is north of the jet stream, while warm air is south of it. In any event, this week's potentially big winter storm will follow the jet stream, causing big issues for the Ohio River Valley. Locations from Little Rock to Cincinnati could be dealing with an ice storm, while cities north of there will receive some pretty good snowfall totals. The shield of snow will graze us at the most, which is why I have merely an off-chance for flurries for the first part of the week. Northwest flow will return later in the week, bringing in more Alberta Clippers... although at this time, it looks like they'll mostly stay north of the Stateline.

Looking forward beyond the 7-Day into the first week of February, our ensemble computer models are trending toward what could be a significant warm-up across the Plains and Midwest. The image to the left is for the evening of February 5. It puts us within the +12 category. For reference, during the big arctic chill a couple weeks back, these maps had us as about -12. So... if this situation plays out - and that's a big "if" - we'd be looking at temperatures approximately as much above average as what we were below average a couple weeks ago. As always, we'll see how that particular situation evolves in the coming days.

Finally, lest you think I forgot, the answer to yesterday's puzzler. Some of you did, in fact, figure out the correct answer. If you said the answer was approximately 460°F (and you didn't cheat!), give yourself a pat on the back. To arrive at this answer, you must understand that temperature is essentially a measure of how quickly molecules in a given substance (such as air) are moving. There is only one temperature scale that measures this absolutely - the Kelvin scale. So, you would have to convert the Fahrenheit temperature to Kelvin, double the Kelvin temperature, then convert it back to Fahrenheit. This yields a decidedly scorching 459.67°F - and a very incorrect forecast. (Side note - the term "absolute zero" in terms of temperature refers to a temperature of 0K... that is, the theoretical temperature at which molecules do not move. Scientists have gotten extremely close to this value in laboratory experiments.)