With fairly quiet weather ahead this week - just a couple of Alberta Clippers producing light snow - I thought I'd take a trip off to beaten path. Yes, the title of this post is exactly what I'm going to blog about: weather singularities.
You might be wondering what on earth that even means. I hadn't even heard of such a thing, either, until a couple months back when I just happened to stumble upon it. It has to do with a weather phenomenon that tends to occur regularly near some particular day of the year. The one we're most familiar with is the January thaw.
Believe it or not, there may be some truth to the notion of a January thaw. From what I can find, though, there's not been much research done on the topic, at least in the US. The UK, on the other hand, seems to have an interest in it.
Anyway, it's been proposed that the January thaw happens sometime around January 20-23. A cursory look at Rockford's climate data does indicate that there are years in which milder weather does occur in that timeframe (numerous years above 50°). However, there are also many years in which a cold snap occurs during those dates (numerous years with highs below 0°). And, finally, there are days in other parts of January that also have relatively warm temperatures.
You can read a scientific paper that tries to make statistical sense of whether or not there is such a thing as a January thaw by clicking here. Warning... it's a long read and has some fancy math equations, which may cause some people (read: Justin Gehrts) to have flashbacks to days of calculus. The "Comments" section of the paper breaks it all down into what it all means. [Note - if you can't see the entire document, open the link in a new window.]
So, should you bank on there being warm weather in the third week of January? No. That said, it's definitely not out of the realm of possibility to have highs in the 50s in the latter part of January.
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6 comments:
I can't read the conclusion...it's cut off in my computer screen.
Pshaw! Do not fear math equations. Even if you can't read the math equation itself, the text right before it tells you exactly what the math equation is going to say.
artist: the Conclusion said that they couldn't prove that the January Thaw phenomenon doesn't exist, and they can't prove that it does either, but they think it probably doesn't. They showed that it could be within the range of normal variations in temp in January, and they hypothesized that human minds tend to remember things like warm weather in January and "see" patterns even when there isn't one. (Note: they didn't PROVE this either; basically they showed that this COULD account for the January Thaw phenomenon, but they didn't prove that it does.)
WI Weather Buff (loves to read scientific papers)
P.S. Note to students wondering what kind of jobs they're going to be able to get:
There is very real value in learning to read stuff that everybody else hates to try to read. Math equations are one example. Blueprints are another. Contracts are another (that's what I do for a living).
If you can put that fear at bay and just plunge in and learn to read what others don't want to read ... it is a job skill that will serve you well (and is worth money) no matter what field you decide to go into!
Besides that, its pretty cool being the "workplace hero" who can dive in and read the stuff that makes everyone else go, "OMG, Huh?!?"
I guess we can count on WI Wx Buff to be the voice of reason. I'll have to chime in so I don't sound like I discourage learning. :)
The reason I'm even in this field is because I read a lot of weather and science books growing up... not just what was assigned in class.
By the way, I feel like I'm having deja vu... I remember a post I made way back when, and the comments section went very off-topic, delving into math, why it shouldn't be approached as scary, etc.
Its okay Justin G, we all know you're a real geek at heart anyway; no explanation necessary. (Only a Real Geek(tm) would point a bunch of people at that geeky scientific paper & think they'd all think it was really cool.)
:-)
P.S. Yup, I remember that previous discussion too... I think it started with me saying I hated calculus. Personally, I prefer the harder math. Calculus is boring. :)
WI Weather Buff (charter member, Official Geek Pride Club)
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