Before reading, please refer to December 1, 2006.9:00pm Update: I just ran our in-house model and it appears that if anything it's trending a little further southward with a snow-bullseye going from Kansas City to Bloomington, IL to South Bend, IN. Will post graphically when the model is complete.
6:45pm Update: Accuweather.com Meteorologist Henry Margusity has a great analysis of this system on his weather blog. Click here for more.6:14pm Update: Everyone must be snowlovers on here! Check out the poll question to the right.
4:30pm Update: Here's a look at the AM GFS model run valid for Midday Sunday. It indicates a potential for significant snow from Rockford up into Wisconsin. The rain/snow line is suspect however...I feel the models right now are under-doing the amount of cold air already present.It's only 3pm and I am just beginning to put together the forecast. It's pretty cut and dry for days one through three. There are some signals now that a winter storm may develop over the Midwest for Saturday/Sunday (exactly one year from last year's record-breaking snow).
Here's an excerpt from the techincal discussion from the National Weather Service in Davenport:
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT AND PROBABLY MAJOR STORM TO PASS
NEAR IDEAL TRACK WITH SFC LOW PASSING ROUGHLY ALONG A MCI-GBG-CHI
AXIS. UKMET/GFS/ECMWF SIMILAR ON TRACK EXCEPT TIMING DISCREPANCIES
DUE HOW QUICKLY SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. ECMWF IS STRONGEST WITH INTENSE
SYSTEM...GFS...VERY STRONG AND UKMET JUST STRONG. UPDATED HWO FOR
CERTAINTY OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER WITH GREATEST RISK NW OF A
SQI TO OTM LINE. CONCERN IS COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OF ARCTIC
ORIGIN FOR ICE AS STRONG WAA KICKS IN. THIS RISK SHOULD BE CLARIFIED
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE WITH SNOW
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 AND A MIX SOUTH. PROBABLY A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT
WITH STORM SYSTEM FOR LATER SHIFTS TO ADDRESS OF 20 DEGREES OR MORE
AND HAVE ONLY TRENDED ATTM. INSPECTION OF ANOMALIES SHOWS 2 UPWARDS
TO NEAR 4 SIGMA.../90 TO 99 PERCENT STRENGTH/ OVER FORECAST REGION
WHICH SUPPORTS STRONG TO NEAR RECORD STRENGTH SYSTEM.
12 comments:
hi eric. so based on the discussion there, if that were to verify, would that put us in an area for heavy snowfall. I believe the storm last year took the nearly identical path. And I remember a few days before the storm hit that candace had said the models were showing it might go south of us, then a day or two later, the track changed. Keep us up to date.
Tony: Last year's low tracked from Memphis to Detroit (which is more of a classic winter storm/blizzard track). This one will be a little more zonal...Oklahoma City to Columbus,OH. Indeed, the forecast did change last year. You can go back and look at our archived forecasts and see how we almost wrote the storm off.
The track will likely change. What impact it will have on the next few days forecasts remains to be seen. -ERIC
Fascinating. At least this year it would occur on a weekend.
Good point except some of us would be working. ;-)
Like me.
Anyway could you post a picture of the GFS model because it doesnt go past day 4 for me.
Justin: Done. Push refresh.
I can usually get the GFS model on the link on the blog here to go out about 7 or 8 days. And it still shows the storm tracking from near southern illinois to southern ohio. I have also noticed that when a poll question is posted and I vote, I get a white box saying cannot process request. I have a feeling if this storm pans out, we won't see 11 inches like last year, but I could see maybe about 3-4 inches. But who knows, it may track way north and us get rain. Bring on the snow.
Alright thanks. Im guessing the snowfall total forecast should be thursday or friday?
Yeah, probably by Friday morning I'm guessing. For what it's worth the midday GFS model is giving us 4.1" before changing over to rain...then changing back to snow.
it sounds like right now we would be on the light end of the storm right now, but yet like u say eric, it is still 4-5 days out and anything can change. I know that's what happened last year and then like 2 days before it hit, the models showed it making us a primary target. I would still prefer a big snow a week or two before christmas, but bring on the snow.
Not changing until either the 12z (morning) or 00z (evening) models all diverge and show consensus. The 18z (midday) and 06z (midnight) model runs usually aren't as accurate as the other two model runs.
Adam will have a better idea of what will happen after looking at tonights 00z models and I'll have a better idea after looking at tomorrow's 12z models.
While this system is the headline on the weather blog, it's still buried in my on-air forecast to the last thirty seconds of my main weathercast. When Adam and I lead off our main weathercasts with the big snow you can count on it. Right now? We can't. ;) -ERIC
let the low track from Memphis to Detroit. so we can get a blizzard.
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