Here's a look at one of the model forecasts (GFSx) that Adam, Gretchen, and I use when we make the 13News Forecast. At first it may just seem like a bunch of random numbers but there is a ton of information here.Notice near the top that the columns are labelled with the day and date. Under that, you see the low and high temperature for the day followed by the dewpoint. In the column next to the P24 (or 24 hour precipitation) you can see the percentage chance of precipitation (or POP) for that day. For instance, Friday's chance of precipitation is a paltry 7%.
Saturday has a 30% POP for Saturday which would most likely come in the form of flurries or sprinkles. Next batch of precip comes Monday/Tuesday with a 22 and 85% POP respectively. What's interesting about this model is what happens on Thanksgiving itself. We have a low of 29° and a high of 39° with a 54% POP. With a bulk of the day below freezing, this may pose a problem! Right now the precipitation type is in question and may be rain, snow, or a combination of both.
Again, this is ONE model and it's a LONG ways out. Models also tend to lean toward one solution for a while until changing late in the game. This time of year once this particular storm's energy gets over North America we will have more data-points. This brings the accuracy of the model up greatly. When will this happen? Probably not until Saturday at the earliest. We will have a great understanding of this weather system at this time. There's definitely no reason to panic right now. Isn't weather forecasting fun?
We'll continue to monitor this wintry possibility on the air and online. As always, your comments, questions, and thoughts are very welcome. -ERIC
p.s. Latest forecast discussion from the Quad Cities weather service office:
DAYS 8-15.../NOV 23-30/...INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST BELOW TO
POSSIBLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH
RISK FOR ONE OR MORE STORM SYSTEMS. SIGNALS VOLATILE DUE TO MAJOR
ENERGY PHASING ISSUES BUT CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FAVORABLE REGIME FOR
WINTER WEATHER OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE 24-28 NOV. TIME PERIOD.
SOME TECHNIQUES STILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY COLD AND NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES AND/OR WINTER WEATHER. ..NICHOLS..
7 comments:
Thank you for taking the time to explain the upcoming situation. As we all know from experience, the first winter storm is difficult to navigate in. We all need a refresher regarding winter driving conditions. Unfortuatley, it has to fall on a very busy travel weekend. It certainately doesn't hurt to have a heads-up. If it doesn't materialize-- great. If it does, we can't say we didn't know it was coming!
I dont care about the drive situation I want snow and lots of it.
woooooooooooooooooooo hoooooooooooooooooooooooo!
You all are right. Winter storms are extremely tricky to forecast, even in the most simplest form. This one hasn't even landed on the continent so our computer models are all over the place. What is certain is there'll be a lot of moisture available. Right now, my hunch keeps most of this as rain with a few flurries on Thanksgiving. -ERIC
noooooooooo.
I agree with the first poster. This will be the first big storm of the year and we will all need to refresh on it. It is coming at the worse time just because we will have alot of out of towners in town and abunch of new comers that have moved here that will not be used to this weather. Not to mention the way we all tend to drive in the first snow is goin to make a huge mess for the biggest holiday shopping day of the year. I love snow and would love to see it but its goin to be a huge huge mess.
yep,now based on the yourcast, the snow chances is gone. sounds like the system is history. that is our luck here in rockford. oh well,maybe next time.
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