Waiting for its Arrival

We've been talking about this weekend's storm system all week long. The models have come together quite well this morning as the different pieces of data are coming up with a fairly uniform solution. The forecast hasn't changed much in the past 24 hours as we are still expecting a wintry mix with sleet and freezing rain causing the most problems.

WREX was the only station in Rockford that participated in a special conference call with the National Weather Service in Chicago today. Their forecast is quite similar to what we have been talking about the past day or two. It still appears as though the precipitation will start early Saturday afternoon in the form of snow, but quickly switch over to a blend of sleet and freezing rain by mid to late afternoon. This outcome will cause the worst driving conditions between 4pm and midnight Saturday evening. They spoke about the possibility of an ICE STORM WARNING being issued later today or early tomorrow morning, but said they would hold off until the event got closer. They also spoke about the "worst case scenario". In the "worst case scenario", a half an inch of frozen precipitation would cover the WREX viewing area. This ice coupled with gusty southeast winds could create widespread power outages. Granted, this is the "worst case scenario", but it is important to know that the potential does exist.

The graphic above is of estimated precipitation totals from 6am Saturday through 6am Sunday morning. As you can see the bullseye for heaviest precipitation is very close to the Rockford area. As we teeter along the freezing mark near the ground and higher up in the atmosphere our precipitation will be changing its form frequently this weekend.

If you are trying to find something to do for Saturday night, I would say you should hold a "get to know your neighbor night". Invite your neighbors over for dinner, cards, or stimulating conversation because you are not going to want to travel too far from home. -ADAM