Thus far this morning the rain has remained light to moderate in intensity. The Stateline has already picked up about 1/3" of rain. The timeframe for the heaviest rain still appears to be this afternoon. Most of the models are cranking out at least an additional 0.5-1.0" of liquid.Radar trends are showing a triangle of dry skies from Kansas City to Des Moines to St. Louis. This is what is known as the "dry slot". This punch of drier air is working northward. While there is still a big batch of precipitation extending to the Quad Cities, this dry pocket might prohibit some of the heavier rain totals. The graphic on the right is a map of the amount of moisture in the atmosphere 10,000 feet off the ground. The green is showing ample amounts of moisture overhead, but notice what is happening in the middle of the storm system over the Mississippi River. This will be something Eric and Justin watch this afternoon.
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has shrunk the slight risk area a bit as of 11:30am. It has taken southern Wisconsin out of the slight risk zone, but has left northern Illinois highlighted. I am losing confidence in the area of greatest instability making it this far north. Temperatures are currently in the 40s, and without some serious heating in the atmosphere it is going to be hard to brew some severe thunderstorms later today. -ADAM
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