6:30pm - Instability will be the wild card when it comes to storm potential for Friday. All other variables seem to be in place. If we get more than an hour of sunshine during the morning/early afternoon, supercell thunderstorms will be likely...those are the most dangerous.2:45pm - Here are a few thoughts concerning Friday's storm potential from our friends at the National Weather Service Milwaukee.
A strong weather system tracking toward Lake Superior will affect southern Wisconsin Friday. This system will draw warm...moist and unstable air on southerly winds into the region. This airmass will interact with an associated cold front and strong jet stream resulting in thunderstorm development across Wisconsin. If skies become sunny early Friday...it will allow the atmosphere to become very unstable. A very unstable atmosphere would lead to the formation of severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds...large hail and isolated tornadoes across southern Wisconsin Friday afternoon and early evening.
11:30am - The next threat for severe weather is setting up for tomorrow (Friday). We are in the slight risk area, meaning that the ingredients are in place to produce some big thunderstorms. Whether the ingredients get mixed up just right is still up in the air.There is going to be a cap in the atmosphere tomorrow, which means a bubble of warmer air aloft. We are going to need some heating to take place during the late morning and early afternoon hours in order to overcome that cap and get rising motion in the atmosphere. A good way to gauge Friday's severe weather threat will be to stick your head outside between 9am-1pm. If we get some substantial breaks in the cloud cover, that sunshine will heat us up quickly and create some significant instability. If we get socked in with gray skies during that time period, it is going to greatly diminish our threat for severe weather. If these thunderstorms do get going the likely timeframe would be between 1pm-7pm... ADAM
10 comments:
Looks like northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin are in the highest risk
SPC
*Under probilistic*
love the mp3 addition! great idea!
Thanks Jim! We're starting it for severe weather events but hope to have a built-in player on the right sidebar for audio forecasts all the time. A lot of times we only have three minutes on tv and 25 seconds on the radio for our forecasts. Here we can get more into Meteorology and the reasons why weather will happen. -ERIC
Great audio - VERY helpful!!
Do you have any "prediction" about the time the strong weather activity may move in? After 5pm?
I know it depends on the sunshine factor for severity - thanks!
Pam
Pam: Late afternoon/evening. Cold front will pass around 10pm bringing an end to any threat.
Right now we're under a slight risk of severe. With the evening models coming in, I wouldn't be surprised if a moderate risk is issued. Check with spc.noaa.gov for the update. (The new Day 1 Outlook won't come in until the wee hours of the morning though.)
Eric, I am wondering, if for instance where I work at was to have any kind of sunshine, even if it for like 10 minutes and other areas stay under cloud cover, would walmart where I am have a better chance of bad storms compared to area that stayed under cloud cover for a while.
I agree with Jim. Its like having an entire extra forecast... plus less typing for you, right? By the way is anybody off tomorrow? I wonder if this snow curse carries over into spring and severe weather.
THANKS Eric!!
I know I work from 1030am-7pm then go out to our bingo hall after that. But I know you meant eric, adam and justin. But I have a feeling though, that even if the sun does come out and the instability is high, somehow the storms will still miss us or die before they get here.
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