Showers and thunderstorms will move across the Mississippi during the wee hours of Friday. A few of the strongest storms may contain some pea to marble sized hail, along with vivid lightning. While one or two storms may reach severe limits, widespread activity should hold off until the midday hours of Friday.
To the left are a couple of forecast images that we certainly don't put all our stock in, but they're at least piquing our interest in tomorrow's severe threat. One of the computer models we use produces images of forecast reflectivity - that is, a forecast of what the radar will look like at a given time.The left image was created during last night's model run and the right image is from this morning's model run. They are both showing the forecast radar image for 7pm tomorrow evening. Both are showing individual thunderstorms in our neck of the woods, pointing to the possibility of supercells as the low passes nearby. Do we think this is going to happen? Once again, it all depends on if we can break up any cloudcover tomorrow. Just like last Friday, if we get a good deal of sunshine, then we'll be facing a better chance of thunderstorms, and we are seeing some signs that will occur. The severe weather risk will become much more clear through the morning hours tomorrow.
15 comments:
Eric, I have a question about radar images.
I'm trying to learn to read radar images better during severe weather.
I think I've noticed something interesting this spring during not-quite-severe weather.
I'm just wondering if I'm imagining it or if this really happens.
Several times, during non-severe thunderstorms I thought I've seen something like this:
Cloud tops are relatively low, say 18000 - 25000 ft. Storm doesn't contain quite enough moisture, and there's not quite enough of what you guys call "instability" in the atmosphere to support severe storm development.
But I could swear, at least on 2 distinct occasions, that I thought I've seen these relatively wimpy storms almost trying to develop a circulation - but they just don't have enough oomph to tighten it up enough to cause tornadic activity.
In fact on April 25 I actually called a co-worker over to look at the radar to ask if they saw what I saw. I was looking at a relatively vigorous T-storm over Rock county and I could swear that I saw something that looked like a big fuzzy hook echo. It obviously wasn't tight enough to indicate a tornado, and the cloud heights were also too low to make a tornado very likely. The VIL (I'm still trying to learn how to read that) looked like it didn't contain enough density or differences between densities at the spot where the storm in question was.
But nevertheless, I could swear I was looking at a wimpy (large diameter with ill defined borders) circulation that looked just like a little kid's cute little attempt to imitate a Big Daddy Hook Echo.
Does this actually happen, or am I making this up (or unable to read the radar image well enough to know what I'm looking at)?
Just really curious...
im watching the storms in iowa, right now there is a tornado watch in part of iowa, from what i see, these storms are moving north east at the time! last weeks storms were not as bad as thoguht, but this time might be diffrent, i will keep my eyes on tommrow before i got to work!
Whatever it takes for the power to go out and not have to be at work...
wal-mart has generators, so its impossible to get the power off at wal-mart
I'll chime in with an answer to the radar question... Eric, feel free to add!
There are such things as mini-supercells or low-topped supercells. As you can guess from the name, they're smaller versions of their monstrous cousins. However, they can still produce pretty strong tornadoes.
The thing that complicates matters with these mini-supercells is that 1) they're small, so it's harder to get a good idea of what they look like with radar, and 2) they often move very quickly.
Anthony, though you may have been spared a bit last Friday in Franklin Grove let me remind you that there were several reports of ping-pong and golf ball size hail to the north of you.
Anthony, I agree with you. Last friday when the storms around 6:45 were coming thru, a lightning bolt hit a power pole outside our owen center storm and the power went out for like 10 seconds, then came right back on. But even if the power does go out, they will make everyone stay and clean.
Ohh, thanks justin g...
NWS did issue a severe t-storm warning for eastern Rock & Walworth Co. right after I saw that interesting thing, whatever it was, on radar ... I presume for the same cell I was looking at.
I did not know that about low topped supercells. Interesting!
Here's a useful case study on a mini-supercell event in Kansas from a couple years back:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ict/?n=2005minisupercell
FYI - the setup shown in Figure 2a on that page is VERY similar to what we're expecting tomorrow.
there has been 24 tornado reports today. and 8 were reported in iowa. heres my prediction tommrow. i say we might get a storm overnight tonight but, i think there will be clearing, to allow the sun to come out and it will distalbize the air and pump up our chances for some whopper of a storm! im not a weather expert, but i think to tommorw will be more active than it was last friday! i will be watching radar before i got to work, because will i work outside,and on day we expect severe weatehr, i carry a portable weather radio! by, how can i tell, if a tornado is about to form, i need to know, so i know what to look for!
Here at about 1:30 AM here in Platteville Wisconsin we just had a nice light show and about an inch of rain in just 35-40 minutes. Power was knocked out in my dorm room here briefly, but it is back on now.
Can't believe the line of storms I am looking at from Topeka Kansas down to Northern Texas right now.
good morning, right now im tracking the storms, it looks like the storms storms are down in missouri, look like to be moving east. the way i see it on radar, looks like i will hit dekalb county direct on, but im not a weather expert! but that how i see it right now! there are tornado watches in missouri right now!
IM WATCHING A THUNDERSTORM DOWN NEAR GALESBURG WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT, ITS MOVING NORTHEAST, LOOKS LIKE TO ME, IT WILL JUST MISS DEKALB COUNTY AND MIGHT CLIP LASALLE COUNTY! LIKE HAVE SAID BEFORE, IM NOT A WEATHER EXPERT, IM PREDICTIING WHERE THIS STORM IS GOING!
the more i study radar, the storms from missouri, its looking to be moving north east, so looks like those storms are on the way to the north central area! we have sun now, so what im predicting now is that we will get hit with a few storms later this morning and but the big stuff to slam us in the late afternoon. it is better for you to have a weather radio today! sorry for all these post, but im just reporting what i am seeing!
thunderstorms are starting to come into the dekalb area in the next 5-10 mins. looks like like our severe weather threat is low, because the sun is not out and its cloudy, so i dont know, unless the sun comes back out, unless redevelopement is going to happen!
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