My Take: Discussion Days 1 - 7

Due to this northwesterly flow dew points were very low yesterday in the upper 40s, and will likely stay at that dry level through the majority of the work week. After dissecting the model data for the next couple of days I find it hard to believe any showers will develop across the Stateline through Thursday. Even though these shortwaves continue to ripple across the region, I can't buy into any more than fairweather cumulus clouds popping up since there just isn't any fuel in the atmosphere to work with.

There looks like a slight shift in our weather pattern for this upcoming weekend. It appears as though we are in for a bit of a warmup, but those southwesterly winds will also cause our dew points to jump into the 60s. Air conditioners will be on again by the weekend as the muggy weather returns.

Once that increase in moisture takes place, we could start to spark a few showers and storms. The graphic in the middle is an estimated precipitation output for Saturday afternoon. Notice the lack of a defined area of low pressure across the midsection of the country. I would call this more of a shortwave than a strong front moving through, because of the lack of dynamics in the atmosphere. The winds typically follow the isobars on the map, and it is evident that a strong southerly flow is not going to setup. Also, another bias that the GFS model is well known for is that it often overdoes rainfall amounts during days 4 - 7. The graphic on the right is a shot of the wind direction higher up in the atmosphere at 500mb for Saturday afternoon. Check out the overflow that keeps us in a northwesterly flow. With no moisture source up in central Canada, a setup like this typically leads to below average precipitation totals.

At this point, I've got an isolated storm chance in for Friday and Saturday, but even that is questionable at this point. Certainly these models perform better once they get inside of 72 hours. We can certainly fine tune the forecast as the weekend gets closer, but if you have outdoor plans don't go canceling them just yet. This drier than normal setup is exactly what those hit hardest with flooding need. -ADAM