These images are the GFS model's forecast (for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, respectively) for something called vorticity at about halfway up into the atmosphere. The details aren't important for this blog post, but when we see a little ripple, or shortwave, move through, that's a disturbance that needs to be watched because it can provide the energy for thunderstorm complexes to develop. Each of those days, there is a shortwave passing fairly close by. As a result, I don't feel comfortable leaving the forecast totally dry through the middle of the week. The models will change the timing and location of these shortwaves, and it's nearly impossible to determine exactly where the complexes will form more than about 18 hours before they'd happen. That's pretty much why we sometimes will have a blanket low-chance of rain.
Complicating matters even further, Tuesday's high temperature is something that could be iffy. I don't buy into big changes in how a model is painting a picture unless there's consistency and continuity. However, the GFS model has had a couple runs of bringing very warm air aloft into the Stateline for Tuesday. IF that air can mix down to the surface and we have full sunshine, we would easily be in the 90s. However, there are three reasons I'm resisting the urge to go higher in my forecast: 1) We still haven't hit 90° yet, 2) Cloudcover would stymie any big heat, and 3) the GFS solution is an outlier - no other model is suggesting it'll be hot that day.
We're in a pattern that will require adjustments to the forecast. And, from a meteorologist's point of view, it's a frustrating pattern to be in because there's a higher-than-normal potential for a busted forecast.
5 comments:
Hey Justin,
I'm thinking you probably ought to help Eric with that Weather Center cleaning task.
Is it too early to gloat?
P.S. I voted for Adam's rainless weekend forecast (apparently along with 28 other folks).
Should I send you & Eric some paper towels?
I'm off on Monday and Tuesday. :)
Even though I did finally pick a side, I'm not officially part of the wager... although I will say, I have a feeling there will be major gloating and bragging rights when all is said and done.
You may not be part of the wager, but you're the one who has to give a Sunday forecast in about 20 minutes. What's that funny looking thunderbolt still doing on the Sunday icon? I think you forgot to take it off.
:)
I was joking with Adam and Eric the other day that sure, they made the wager, but I'm the one who gets stuck dealing with the rain if it does happen!
If I recall correctly, Eric dropped by the station early on Thursday because he forgot his cell phone, and that's when he and Adam made the bet. It's a good thing the weather was sooooo quiet, or else the feuding wouldn't have been nearly as amusing!
Well I voted for Adam. I looked at the forecast models yesterday afternoon, and figured things would move more south than south east. The GFSX showed development over IA and MO. Looking at the radar this morning it looks like the model was right on . I have no idea how stable/unstable the air above the state line is, so it looks like it's going to be a close call.
Should make for an interesting day for you guys Eric and Adam, I can picture you guys sitting with your eyes glued to the radar lol . Hopefully North East MO will get spared this afternoon and tomorrow. They have enough wet stuff already.
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