Hurricane Dolly has been strengthening rapidly all morning long and has recently been upgraded to a category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 95 mph with wind gusts as high as 120 mph. A good indicator of a strong hurricane is showing a clear eyewall. The radar scan from Brownsville, TX as of 9:54am shows a distinct eyewall just off the coast. Heavy rain bands have already begun to pummel inland areas. This is only the beginning. The graphic in the middle is estimating a bullseye of over 8" of rainfall in the next 24 hours around the southern tip of Texas. This could be a conservative forecast, as I've heard some meteorologists calling for more than 10" of liquid from Dolly.
The right front quadrant of a hurricane typically holds the most damaging winds, strongest storm surge, and severe weather. As the graphic to the right shows, this part of Dolly has basically been outlined in a tornado watch until 7pm this evening. There have already been reports of a doppler indicated tornado near Corpus Christi, TX. The storm surge is expected to reach 15 to 20 feet in height near the South Padre Islands. Luckily the east side of the islands are mostly uninhabitated with the majority of the tourist attractions on the west side of the islands.
The eyewall should make landfall around noon today. This storm system is moving very slowly off to the northwest at 7 mph, and it continues to decelerate. This is going to be problematic, because southern Texas will feel the worst that Dolly has to offer for an extended period of time. This part of Texas has been dealing with extreme drought. Rainfall is good news, but not this much in such a short amount of time. The majority of this rain won't be able to soak into the rock hard ground, which could cause catastrophic flooding. One well known hurricane meteorologist is predicting damages in excess of 100 million dollars. -ADAM
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