I just finished up the forecast products at 3:30pm and began looking more closely at the short-term convective trends. There are a few towers trying to develop from Dubuque down to Galesburg. These will likely form into storms by 4:30pm and track northeast. Surface based potential energy (CAPE) is around 5,000 near the Quad Cities which should be enough to get storms to form rapidly. Because the atmosphere is so warm and humid the freezing level is very high today. With that in mind, I anticipate any hailstones that the storms generate will thaw on their way down to the surface. This is a classic high wind set up...wouldn't be surprised if a few storms produce a 55-70mph wind gust somewhere. There's a tornado warning out for NE Iowa but I don't think that threat is going to be very major this evening...will watch nonetheless.
I wouldn't be surprised if a watch is hoisted by 5pm which could encompass all of Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin. -ERIC
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3 comments:
Eric, Should we be in the clear then around 5:45 tonight for a T-Ball game here in Roscoe?
Thanks!
Just have an "exit strategy" should storms threaten. :)
Thanks! Could be interesting with 3 & 4 year olds!
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