Somewhat Skeptical

At this point, I am a little skeptical that we will run into any severe weather later today. If some thunderstorms do develop it would happen late this morning and early this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center does still have us in a slight risk for severe weather. They have circled the Stateline in having a 15% chance of seeing damaging wind gusts of 55 mph or higher within 25 miles of a given point.

There is a great explanation written by one of the forecasters in the Chicago NWS office this morning, which I wholly agree with:

CURRENTLY AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH TODAYS SETUP FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR MORE TROPICAL WITH THE MAIN
THREAT HEAVY RAIN.  WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL REMAINING FAIRLY HIGH
ALONG WITH THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT...HAIL MAY BE HARD TO COME BY.
AND WITH A MORE SATURATED OUT SOUNDING UP THROUGH THE HIGHER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF DRY AIR TO USE TO PULL DOWN
TO THE SURFACE.  WIND SHEAR IS ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE TO START OUT...BUT
COULD INCREASE A BIT AS THE SFC FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF START TO
DIG SOUTHWARD.  BIG MASS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SPREADING ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING IS NOT GOING TO HELP MUCH EITHER.  ALL
NEGATIVITY ASIDE...AS THE PREFRONTAL TROF COMES THROUGH...CAN NOT
RULE OUT THAT IT WILL HAVE ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO SHOOT
UP SOME CONVECTIVE TOWERS AND TAP INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
THAT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE COMING UP WITH TO PRODUCE A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND/LINE SEGMENTS BEING THE MAIN
CULPRIT IN THIS WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.

We are going to have to deal with the humidity for at least one more day. Dew points will be hanging out in the upper 60s through dinnertime tonight. I expect the dew points to begin dropping this evening. Refreshing air moves in on northwesterly winds creating a winning weather day for Wednesday! -ADAM