Wager update!

Yesterday, Adam asked me whose side I was on with the little weekend rainfall bet. I gave him my honest answer: I would agree with him if he asked, and I'd agree with Eric if he asked. Yes, I'll admit to being a little wishy-washy at times.

Then Eric and I checked out the new computer model runs in the afternoon... and both had a little devious chuckle. Those thunderstorm complexes that roam the Midwest during the late summer? Three of our computer models were showing one of those passing quite close to Rockford later on Sunday. A couple models continue to show this complex around the same time period... but a bit farther north, right across our viewing area. One of our ensemble forecasts is showing a 50% chance of at least 0.01" of rain by Sunday evening, and another shows the 0.10" threshold moving through by Sunday evening. So, now that there's been some pretty decent consistency and agreement in the model solutions, I'm officially siding with Eric.

I will point out that the precise timing and location of these thunderstorm complexes are just about impossible to nail down, but we can generally get an idea of how they'll evolve. That's my little disclaimer, so factor that into your decision when you vote in the poll on the right! And don't forget to read the original post about this little forecasting battle down below this one...