When is the best time to start planning for the next weekend? I would say Monday morning is as good as any! On Saturday, Justin left out any rain for next weekend, because the models were in total disagreement as to what was going to happen. On Sunday, Justin put in some rain chances, because the models were starting to become in better alignment. This morning, the different data sets are looking even more alike. There are a large number of different models. The more that produce a similar solution, the more confidence we can put into a forecast.
I have posted still images of the sea level pressure for Saturday afternoon from Monday morning's runs of the GFS and ECMWF models. As you can see, both models are thinking a well developed area of low pressure will be spinning over the central Plains. The GFS model to the left clearly displays a comma shaped area of precipitation with northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin getting hit hard with soggy skies. Prior to this morning, the ECMWF model was holding out with a different solution, but it is now latching onto the wet forecast for the weekend. Once this storm system moves into the region it will likely get cutoff from the main flow in the jet stream. When an area of low pressure gets cutoff from the main pushing mechanism in the sky it tends to stall out over a particular region and cause several days worth of wet weather. At this point, Saturday and Sunday appear to be good bets for scattered showers and storms. Much fine tuning will take place over the next 5 days, but at this point I would hope you utilized the sunshine from this past weekend, because the next weekend could be a little rough. -ADAM
3 comments:
hey eric, with it being august 11 and the days getting shorter everyday and based on this forecast, what are the chances now that we will go through the entire summer without an official 90 at the airport. also are we still in la nina or has that pulled away.
How it looks right now, I'd say we have a 50/50 chance!
Cool, I honestly think we won't hit 90 but yet that is why i am not a meterologist. also, are we still in la nina, or is that gone for this time around. I could swore last month, there was once on the weather channel in the corner box that said 90 for a temp, but yet maybe they went overboard. That is why I don't trust them.
Post a Comment