The Climate Prediction Center has compiled their temperature and precipitation outlooks for April through June of 2007. Some indications suggest that we will be entering into a La Nina weather pattern over the next couple of months and that could mean above normal temperatures for much of the U.S. and equal chances of above or below average temperatures for the lower Ohio River Valley and Northeast. An equal chance is predicted when there are no reliable signals to base the seasonal outlook on.
Meanwhile, the outlook suggests below average precipitation for the southwest and southern Plains and equal chances for the rest of the country. With the possibility of La Nina this spring, this could suggest that we may actually see above average precipitation. Monitor Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) in the Pacific and get the latests forecasts.
5 comments:
Is it always either El Nino or La Nina?
Or is there ever any time when neither of those is happening?
Sure! El Ninos and La Ninas are the extremes. Basically you can think of El Nino being when the water temperature off of the Equatorial-Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal...la nina is when it is colder. Each has an effect on how our weather materializes here. But there are times when the factor is negligble. -ERIC
I think El Nino or La Nino are just forecasting factors. As a meteorologist or climatologist, I am a meteorologist myself, when you forecast you have to think of every weather variable that might change a forecast. If a climatologist does not include an El Nino or La Nino in the forecast, when it's possible, it could be major climate differences for that season or year. Forecasting is tough, and it's even tougher when you have to include La Nina or El Nino. Great posting Eric...I check your blog every day.
For all of us spotters out there, what does the severe weather outlook look like? Can't wait for storms to chase!
Just a word to the wise (new storm spotters that is, from one spotter to another) ... try not to get ghoulish about your love for storm chasing. We do not wish for severe storms (at least not in public).
Severe storms can frighten the public and can cause very real death, injury and property destruction. We do not wish for that, just as firefighters do not wish for fires and police do not wish for crimes.
Just wait quietly, and know that in this area Mother Nature will give you a chance to chase storms every year. Be patient.
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