I wanted to follow up on Adam's post from this morning.Here's a look at what's called a "spaghetti plot" which shows the potential storm paths for Wednesday of next week. Notice how the lines are very similar for a few hundred miles out west. That is the system's next few days. Most models agree that the storm will be spit out into the Dakotas on Sunday. After that, one computer model keeps it going across Wisconsin while another takes the center of low pressure all the way into the Deep South. What's interesting is three of the four are now south of Rockford (keeping us firmly in the cold air). The blue line is the GFS computer model...which is known for latching onto winter storm systems pretty well. This model grabs lots of Gulf of Mexico moisture and brings it back into Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois. If this model comes to fruition there could be a significant winter storm somewhere in the mid-Mississippi River valley on Wednesday.
The image to the left is the GFS computer model that I talked about. I put it in a four-panel so you can see how the system is forecast to progress. I highlighted the state of Illinois and made the freezing line white so you can see how the warm air brings rain out ahead of the storm with snow on the back side. -ERIC
8 comments:
Could you guys (and Candace) please give us a little warmer weather? SNOW AGAIN?
How much?
SNOW IN APRIL I THOUGHT WE WE FINISHED WITH WINTER FOR ANOTHER YEAR BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS NOT DONE
I know there was snow in the beginning of April in 1975. What's the latest date that we have had snow? Or is it coming up?
What's the latest date that we have had snow?
April 23, 1967. Two inches of snow fell on Belvidere. But I've heard that it has snowed in the month of May. Given the early October snowfall last year, it is quite possible that a cold May morning could produce snowfall.
This is an interesting link. The influence of the lake breeze on the formation of particularly violent tornadoes is interesting. The similarities between the winter of 1966-67 and this winter are also interesting.
www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/newsletter/spring2007.pdf
"In the wake of the storms, much colder air poured into the area on northwest winds. Two days later northern Illinois
had a very rare late April snow! A total of 3.8 inches fell at Rockford and 3.1 inches fell at Chicago (Midway) on
April 23. This is the latest 3 inch snow on record for both locations."
"As the wave of low pressure approached during the warmth of
the afternoon, surface winds backed slightly to the south-southeast, especially near Lake Michigan as a weak lake breeze formed.
This likely increased the low level wind shear – the change of wind speed and direction with height - an important factor in producing
rotating supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes."
"Weather Currents Introduction
On Friday afternoon April 21, 1967 the Chicago area suffered its worst tornado outbreak. At least
10 tornadoes raked northeast Illinois, three of which were violent, F4 tornadoes. In the wake of
the twisters, 58 were dead, more than 1000 were injured, and there was nearly half a billion in
damage (2006 dollars). 40th Anniversary of Northern Illinois’ Worst Tornado Disaster by Jim Allsopp, Warning Coordination Meteorologist Synopsis
The winter of 1966-1967 had been a harsh one. In fact, it was a record setting winter. The record
23 inch snowstorm of January 26 and 27 led to Chicago’s snowiest winter, with a total of 68.4
inches. (The current record was set in 1978-1979). There was continuous snow cover on the
ground from January 26 until March 9, a 42 day stretch! But the weather pattern had changed by
late March and April. Spring had arrived. Chicago saw five straight days in the 70s the previous
weekend - April 13 through17. Rockford even hit 80 degrees during the mid-April warm spell. Peo-
ple in northeast Illinois were looking forward to another mild spring weekend Friday April 21."
There should be a law that if it hits 80 degrees it cant snow again for at least 6 months.
looks like the weather channel is just showing rain here now on wednesday. but we all know how reliable the weather channel is. is there any update candy.
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