The severe weather risk for the Midwest today will be very similar to what occurred yesterday. The only difference will be the track will be a little bit farther south. Yesterday storms formed in Minnesota and made a beeline towards Rockford. This afternoon the main cluster of thunderstorms are likely to form out in Nebraska and South Dakota. These storms will become severe rather quickly, but stay well away from us. An isolated storm is possible this afternoon south of I-88, but the real rain will hold off until tonight.Just like last evening a a large complex of thunderstorms will gel together, but this time it will be in western Iowa. These storms will move towards the ESE. By the time the thunderstorms reach the Stateline it will be after midnight again. Our main threat for severe weather will continue to be damaging winds. If these storms continue to move at such a rapid pace the winds will continue to gust near 60 mph. Furthermore, at this rapid pace our flash flooding threat will stay low, because the storms just do not have enough time to drop massive amounts of rain on any one place.
I do not expect tonight's thunderstorms to make a direct hit on Rockford, but do expect the path to be close enough to us that our southern counties get hit fairly hard. -ADAM
3 comments:
based on the microcast, we may not get hit directly, but looks like we may still get some appreciable rain, looks like we might still get 1-2 inches of rain. now on the weather channel, which is not reliable, i saw that this weekend we might be in the 60s and 70s, is that true or are they full of it. 13 weather rocks and always will.
Saturday said 62. I think thats cold enough to have a wind chill.
I quit my outdoor job so I don't have to worry about temperature much anymore.
Microcast is just one of the many pieces of data that we can look at to make a forecast. Just like any model, some educated decisions have to be made in order to "tweak" the forecast. Microcast overshot last night's precipitation totals and is likely overshooting tonight's totals. The reason is that these storms are just moving at too fast a pace to pick up 2 inches of rain. I would go closer to what we saw this morning and forecast somewhere between .5" - 1" of rain.
Obviously, the weekend forecast is in the back of our minds at this point, but we're going with highs near 80 degrees. Remember if the high temperature is 80, that means the majority of the day is spent in the 70s. It would take some serious cloud cover and rain to keep our high temperatures in the 60s in August.
Adam Painter
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