Tropical/Barbeque Analogy

It's no secret that I have a love for any and all things barbequed. Well, do you remember that system I've been talking about about half way between Florida and Bermuda? I've been saying that this thing is "expected" to form any day. In fact, accuweather.com has a graphic on their website which reads "Gabrielle will form." That may not be so much the case anymore. The satellite view to the left shows the area of low pressure. The low-level center of low pressure is completely exposed (on the west side of the high cloud tops). You can almost imagine the strong upper-level winds that are sheering the tops off to the northeast as well. While high pressure will indeed build to the north and shut off these winds, the circulation may completely die off by that time. As far as a future Gabrielle, the morning computer models are also not developing this system quite like they were. If anything, a tropical depression (or subtropical depression) may form and move toward the Carolina coast this weekend, but a hurricane is appearing less and less likely at this point.

So, I see this system much like a barbeque in the fact that we have the charcoal briquettes (deep plume of moisture), the lighter fluid (the warm 85°+ Gulf Stream waters), and we have the match. Right now the wind keeps blowing that match out before we can get the fire going. And in a few days the matchbox will be completely empty. -ERIC