The map to the left is the GFS weather model for Friday November 23rd (the day after Thanksgiving).It indicates a strong area of low pressure tracking from Oklahoma to Indiana bringing a swath of heavy, wet snow (more than six inches?) from Kansas City through Rockford up to Green Bay.
Now, before anyone gets excited: this is a ten day model. It WILL change between now and then. Whether the model will hold onto the snowy solution for us remains to be seen, but this is the first time we've seen winter in the computer models! We will bring many updates should this storm remain on our computer screens.
Evening Update: See? The computer models are changing already! The most recent run of the GFSx has the low moving from East Texas into the Mid-Atlantic states totally bypassing the Upper Midwest. We'll likely see many different results in the coming days.
21 comments:
I highly doubt if this will stick up. But I just don't see that happening. It would be cool though. Also eric, where do u find these models. On the models link, it only goes thru 180 hours. Just curious. thanks
tony
http://wxforecaster.com/model12.htm
This is the link I remember Eric giving last winter.. whether or not theres a better one to use now I don't know.
http://wxforecaster.com/model12.htm
There now you can click it
I remember a bad Thanksgiving snowstorm in 1983. Not sure if it hit here as badly as where I was that year (Minneapolis) but my Mom was visiting us that weekend from here and I remember there being some question about whether or not the train would make it through.
WooHoo!! Bring on the snow!!
:-)
I hope not, I have to drive to Missouri.
April Fools' right?
Nope, we're five months from that! Tomorrow, our short-range GFS model will be able to see out to Thursday evening. We'll get a little better handle on the extended at that time. I'd say the chance of this materializing into a full-fledged winter storm is less than 20%. -ERIC
so you think its only 20 percent chance now for a potent storm,but in the future can that percntage climb?
Heh heh. Sure it can.
Look at it this way. A 20% chance means 1 chance in 5. But if that one chance actually happens then there is a 100% chance that it did happen.
On the other hand, by a week from today there could be a 90% chance of somethingorother. Which means 1 chance in 10 that it won't happen. So even if that 1 chance in 10 is what actually happens the forecast wasn't wrong because they didn't say 0 chances in 10, they said 1 chance in 10. So whether the thing that had 9 chances in 10 happens or the thing that only had 1 chance in 10 happens, either way they weren't wrong.
+hi.I hope we get that storm. I bet the temp. will be around 30 to 33 degrees with a chance of snow.My prediction is anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of snow.
just can't see it sticking to anything but grass and all the leaves that will be on everyones lawn.
Exciting!
i love the snow. maybe it will be bigger than last years snow storm?
We're lucky to know how big a snow storm is gonna be the day of it. But I miss snow, im looking forward to it
I don't think we will get anything knowing the rockford curse. We will probably be 50 and rain. I hope we get a big snow though, but I highly doubt if that will happen.
latest models trending further west...bringing mainly rain to the area. still lots of uncertainty right now. -ERIC
why did you delete my comment its true I want snow
I love you eric.
And I love you too.
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