Tornado Watch Issued

The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch for all of the WREX Viewing area until midnight. As the warm front lifts northward over the next couple of hours, severe storms are likely through the evening. A line of strong storms is currently moving through eastern Iowa and west-central Illinois. A few storms have developed ahead of the this line in northwest Illinois.

While the storms should diminish as night falls, any storms that do develop have the potential to spin and produce brief tornadoes.

Stay with 13News for all the latest weather information!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Possible

The SPC within the next couple of hours will closely be monitoring our area to see if whether or not they should issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch over portions of Illinois and southern Wisconsin. As the warm front continues to lift to the north, the severe threat could likely begin to increase this evening. Strong winds, hail, and a tornado or two (closer to the warm front) could be likely with some of the stronger storms that do develop.

Continue to stay with 13News for the latest storm information.

Watching the Storms

With a storm system along the Nebraska/Iowa border, strong storms have been firing up in eastern Nebraska and central Iowa.

While we are on the north side of the warm front, places to the south and southwest have seen temperatures in the lower 70s.

There is a lot of rotation in the lower levels of the atmosphere because winds south of the front are coming in straight from the south, winds north of the front are from the east and winds behind the system are from the northwest. So that creates a lot of spin, especially closer to the area of low pressure, which is favorable for supercell thunderstorms to develop and possibly produce tornadoes. Also, some areas in southern Iowa have had a little more sunshine so that has helped to create more instability. So through the rest of this afternoon, the greatest threat for severe weather stretches from southern Iowa, western Illinois and northern Missouri. As we go into the evening, that threat could shift to the east.

The thing to watch for tomorrow:

We've forecasted a chance of severe thunderstorms on Saturday for days now, but it's the amount of instability that we're looking at now. As you can see by the NAM computer model to the left, the highest instability lies in Iowa during the day on Saturday and may not move in until late Saturday into Sunday. The storms will rapidly intensify from Omaha to Kansas City during the midday hours and move east-northeast. Will they make it here?

One thing that may increase or decrease the amount of instability is cloud cover! If we remain cloudy for most of the daylight hours of Saturday, our atmosphere will remain fairly low. However, if some sunshine can break through the clouds the amount of instability will go up substantially. If this scenario holds true for Saturday, our threat of severe thunderstorms will increase for Saturday evening and Saturday night as those storms move in from the west. -ERIC

Saturday Severe???

Adam Painter had a hunch that the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) would shift their slight risk east of the Mississippi this afternoon...and they did.


A warm front will lift northward during the morning hours of Saturday. This will likely bring some showers and thunderstorms for the morning. As low pressure develops in Iowa during the afternoon, a cold front will begin accelerating to the east. Thunderstorms could become severe in our area after 4pm. -ERIC

New technology lets us find tornadoes

13 Skywatch Nexrad now has the ability to detect tornadoes! WREX-TV is now the only station in Rockford to have the technology to find a tornado within a thunderstorm! Introducing "Skywatch Tornado Mode".

In the image to the left, we are using our real-time data from the Quad Cities doppler radar. Looking at Tornado Mode tonight, we see that all of the winds are uniform in Whiteside and Lee Counties...out of the southeast. If a tornado was forming, we would see a couplet of green and red, tightly wound. You can see what a strong tornado looks like in Tornado Mode with the bottom image. The tightly wound colors indicate strong rotation...and a tornado!

Let's hope we won't have to use Tornado Mode too much, but we will keep it turned on. The next time a Tornado Warning is issued, watch 13WREX as we look within a storm for tornadoes! -ERIC

Isolated Showers

"Isolated showers" basically means that across a given viewing area most locations are seeing dry skies, but a select few are sitting through some showers. The few showers that popped up this morning produced some moderate rainfall. The graphic to the left shows the have's and the have not's.

The majority of the wet weather moved directly over Winnebago County between 6am and 10am. The showers will continue to winddown this afternoon, but the cloud cover isn't going anywhere. -ADAM

Deadly Tornado Outbreak

Wednesday March 28th will be remembered by many for the extreme number of tornadoes. As of 10:45pm CDT 61 tornadoes have been reported. At this time, two people are confirmed dead in Beaver County, Oklahoma. KUSA-TV in Denver reports three injures with major damage in the small town of Holly, Colorado (on the far eastern side of Colorado).

This outbreak will near a record for March. On March 20/21, 1976, 68 tornadoes touched down in one day. On March 13/14, 1990, 59 tornadoes touched down. The number will continue to rise until midnight. Hopefully we won't break a record and there won't be any more fatalities. There are reports that many rural towns in KS, OK, and NE do not have power...and no way to get the warning. Just another reason that every household must have a weather radio.

Are you ready to chill out?

Here's a look at the GFS foreast for a week from Friday. Disclaimer: I don't put that much emphasis on computer models this far out because I have a hunch this will change.

It does show quite a bit of cold air filtering in from Canada...and a little moisture as well! With thickness values below 540, temperatures would be in the 30s...with snow flurries???

We're definitely not done with the freezing temperatures and frost. The average last frost for Rockford is usually during the first few weeks in May! -ERIC

If the forecast is wrong, how can the predictions about global warming be right?

Patrick from Dixon writes: "if they (Meteorologists) can be wrong about weather conditions in a 24 hour period in the immediate area in spite of having radar of approaching conditions, why should we believe that long range forecasts about global warming in 10, 20 or 100 years are accurate?"

You’ve brought up some very thought provoking things! First of all, the NWS uses POPs (or probabilities of precipitation) in their forecasts. Using a percentage chance of rain is thought to help the public’s discernment of the forecast. We all know that a 30% chance of rain means that our outdoor plans will probably go off without a hitch. However, a 70% chance of rain still leaves a 30% chance that rain won’t happen.

WREX-TV doesn’t use POPs. We feel that they are somewhat confusing. We use words like slight chance, scattered, and likely to convey the likelihood of precipitation. Hopefully, it is a little easier to understand.

As far as your comments about Global Warming, I must remind you that weather and climate are two very different things. Meteorologists forecast the weather. Climatologists forecast the climate. A lot of what we use (as Meteorologists) revolves around weather observations and operational weather modeling. We use these things to put together a written forecast which we then put on the air each morning and night. Forecasting the weather is very different than forecasting climate. The folks at the NWS are forecasting the weather and are not the same group of people that are forecasting climate change.

Climate is the observed weather over a certain span of time, usually a long period of time. Climatologists look back over years of data then show the changes that have been made. They have observed that the climate is warming (not only across our nation, but the world as a whole). Because the specific reasons for this climate change can only be speculated at this time, the debate has ensued. Whether or not this climate change is man-made remains to be seen, but the pro-global warming brigade believes pollution should be curtailed so the change isn’t so drastic.

Many people say to me “If global warming is occurring, why aren’t we breaking record highs all of the time?” The reason we aren’t breaking records all of the time is because we have to look at the difference between daily weather and long-term climate. For instance, we had an exceptionally cold February this year. However, the cooling of February was cancelled out because of the warmth January and March have brought...so our climate is still warmer this year compared to climatic averages.

I wish I had an answer to the global warming debate but I think the more people like you ask questions and do their own independent thinking, the better off we will all be.

As far as the accuracy of the NWS forecasts (and our own), keep in mind that our accuracy would be very high if we were forecasting for one particular point on the map. Both the NWS and WREX-TV forecast for an entire region...pinpointing when it will rain in Dixon versus DeKalb is a daunting task sometimes!

Thanks for your question Patrick!

March: In like a lion, out like a...

The old saying states if March comes in like a lion, it will go out like a lamb. March 1st brought the Rockford area a soaking 0.6" of rain, but it looks like March 31st may bring another round of soggy weather. The graphic to the left is a sampling of the GFS model for Saturday at 1pm. The graphic to the right is a sampling of the NAM model for the same time frame. If either scenario holds true we could be looking at warm temperatures and some fairly strong thunderstorms. The GFS pumps out less rainfall than the NAM, but both models are thinking at least another half inch of rain before this storm system moves on. Get your roars ready! -ADAM

Warm Air Disrupted!

One of the first things I do when I get into the weather center each afternoon is check out the temperatures. While the Rockford area sits at an unbelieveable 76° at 3pm, the Chicago area is in the 50s and the Milwaukee area is in the 40s!

You can actually see the cold front on doppler radar. Click on the image to see it in motion. The little blue line that goes from SE Rockford to the south suburbs of Chicago is the front in motion! It is actually enhancinc the lift...for some thunderstorms across Lee County, IL right now!

It's amazing to see the shorts and tee-shirt weather south of the front...winter coat weather north! The front will slowly sag southeastward in the direction of the blue arrow through the afternoon and may continue to fire up some storms, capable of some small hail through 7pm.

Temperatures in the Rockford area will fall into the 50s by 5pm. The forties will be kept snugly along the Lake Michigan shoreline. -ERIC

What's the hold up?

We've been talking about a stationary front overhead for several days now. Why hasn't this frontal boundary moved out of the area yet? The reason is a very strong area of high pressure that is spinning over the Carolinas. It is acting as a bully and has put up an impenetrable fence. Until this blocking mechanism moves off of the coast our atmosphere will remain unstable due to the clashing of the warm and relatively cooler airmasses overhead. -ADAM

Almost too good to be true!

When the thermometer rose to 79° on Sunday, many of us thought it couldn't be beat. In fact, we broke a record high for the date.

Sunshine and a warm start-up temperature (63°) gave that 79° a run for the money.

At 2:37pm the thermometer made it to 80° at the Chicago/Rockford Int'l Airport...one of the earliest 80 degree temperatures in recent memory! In fact, we haven't seen a March-80 in nine years!

I saw some lucky folks boating down the Rock River, I saw a man riding a horse down Auburn Road, and I smelled a barbeque along North Main. One thing that I've never seen before? A boy (probably about ten years old) was riding down the Sinnissippi Bike Path while talking on a cell phone. Welcome to 2007, right?

What did you do to celebrate our first 80? Post a comment! -ERIC

Study: Global Warming may create new climates

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Some climates may disappear from Earth entirely, not just from their current locations, while new climates could develop if the planet continues to warm, a study says.

Such changes would endanger some plants and animals while providing new opportunities for others, said John W. Williams, an assistant professor of geography at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. Read more here.

Watch for Your Hometown Forecast!

We are starting up something new on 13News Today. As you well know, the weather isn't uniform across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. In an effort to further detail the disparities among the viewing area, I will be issuing a hometown forecast every morning. Each morning I will pick a city whose weather stands out or varies the most from the Rockford area.

The inaugural hometown forecast is for Rock Falls, Illinois where they could easily break the 80 degree mark. This type of warmth is more typical of late June than late March! -ADAM

Severe Threat Tonight

As the old saying goes, "You win some...you lose some". The storms tonight stayed well off to the north this evening in northern Wisconsin. A line of storms is moving through central Wisconsin and may fill in a little to the south, but other than that things should be pretty quiet and warm!

New Record

With breezy southerly winds and lots of sunshine this afternoon, temperatures were quick to rise into the middle and upper 70s! Today will be a day that goes down in the record books. We reached 79 degrees breaking the old record of 76 set back in 1907!

Monday will be another warm day. Highs are expected to reach the middle to upper 70s once again!

Flood Watch Issued

Flood Watches have been issued for parts of the WREX viewing area through Sunday evening. While it's pretty quiet so far this evening, and approaching warm front will move north through the overnight on Saturday and we could see a few showers and even some thunderstorms. With the threat of thunderstorms, heavy downpours are possible. With all the recent rain we've seen this past week, the ground in some spots is fairly saturated. So as rain continues to fall, the ground will not be able to soak it up as quickly, leading to flooding.

One a side note: I was watching the Weather Channel this morning (yes, I know) and they were talking about some of the flooding that has been occurring in Indiana and Ohio. Well, one lucky reported manged to run into Colts head coach, Tony Dungy, along a flooded residental road. After talking to him for a while, the reporter told Tony that "he has seen cars make it through, and the only time they've gotten stuck was when they tried to turn around in muddy yards." He then preceded to tell Tony to "just drive down the middle of the road and you should be fine." And he did!! I didn't get a chance to see if Dungy actually made it, but please let this be a reminder to you that if you come across a road that is flooded, no matter if you think you can make it through or not, just TURN AROUND! -CANDY

Severe Threat Sunday

Sunday could prove to be bumpy for some who live in parts of Wisconsin. A moderate risk for severe weather is expected there while all of the WREX viewing area is in a slight risk. As a vigorous area of low pressure moves northeast tonight and Sunday, it will draw in a lot of moisture from the gulf along with warmer tempertures.

Rain and thunderstorms are expected tonight as a warm front creeps further north through northern Illinois. A few storms could be ongoing Sunday morning, but we may actually see a break in the early afternoon before the low pressure settles over southern Minnesota. Storms could fire up as early as mid afternoon in northern Iowa and move east into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois by late afternoon. A few of the storms could be on the strong side with hail and damaging winds. The latest severe weather update will be issued late tonight from the SPC and we will have the newest outlook for Sunday afternoon.

This is the coolest game on the internet!

Here's your chance! Have you ever wondered how the Meteorologists at the National Weather Service issue warnings? What do they look at? Do you think you could do better then they do?

The National Weather Service in Atlanta (Peachtree City) has come up with a game where you are given views of the doppler radar. You have to issue the severe storm and tornado warnings based on what you see. The game is based on an actual tornadic event so after the simulation is over you are graded on what was actually observed.

So, you think you can make it as a forecaster? Try it by clicking here. (Don't worry, there's a nice tutorial before you begin.)

See you Saturday morning!

Join 13WREX and the Chicago office of the National Weather Service as we get you prepared for the 2007 Severe Weather Season tomorrow!

The seminar will be held at the Chicago/Rockford International Airport's Public Safety Building (just to the right of the international terminal) at 9:00am.

Discussions will include the different types of severe weather clouds, how to identify a tornado or funnel clouds, and the conditions that promote severe weather and tornado development, as well as how to make a report.

This is a great seminar for those interested in severe weather, not just those who are out there spotting for the National Weather Service or 13WREX. -ERIC

First active storm day of the spring season

There were 129 reports of severe weather in the upper Midwest on Wednesday with a few of those coming out of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

There were even a few night-time tornadoes reported in northern Missouri and southern Iowa.

Luckily the storms weakened as they moved into the Rockford metro around 3am this morning. There was still plenty of torrential rainfall. Some areas saw 24 hour totals over 3 inches!

As of 2am Thursday

Here is where we stand at this point. The air outside is quite muggy as we have plenty of moisture to work with in the atmosphere this morning. The red arrow to the left is what is known as the Low Level Jet. It is a stream of air in the lower levels of the atmosphere that often kicks in at night across the Midwest. Right now this Low Level Jet is fairly strong at 60 miles per hour. This will allow thunderstorms to continue to redevelop across portions of Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Our main threat this morning will be brief downpours, small hail, and wind gusts near 40 miles per hour.

As I finish this post, I just noticed that a tornado watch has been issued for a section of south-central Illinois between Peoria, Illinois and St. Louis, Missouri. Again, for the most part the severe weather should be to the south of us today. -ADAM

Storm Photos

Thank you Dennis Mills and Justin Kink for sending in these photos of Wednesday's storms!

Watching out in Iowa

Storms are progressing through Iowa this evening. Severe Thunderstorm Watches are in effect for Iowa this evening. This image is from 7:25pm (using our weathertap.com viewer).

The storms will march east through the evening and move across the Mississippi River after midnight. Keep close tabs with this system using wunderground.com's nexrad radar viewer. -ERIC

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Ogle and Winnebago County until 5:45pm Wednesday. At 4:51pm, doppler radar showed a severe thunderstorm 11 miles west of Byron moving northeast at 30mph. This storm will be near Byron by 5:10, Rockford by 5:40, and Loves Park by 5:45. Stay indoors until this storm passes!

Radar Analysis 4:45pm

Here's a look at our doppler radar right now. We're in a lull with the strongest storms moving into the western suburbs of Chicago. Another line of storms out to the west has produced some nickel sized hail. These storms will work through the Rockford metro by 7pm.

A more intense line of storms will develop across western Iowa this evening and approach by 2am. Gusty winds will be possible after 2am. Severe weather is not going to be widespread, but we'll watch the radar just in case! -ERIC

Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed

The Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma may issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin within the next hour or two. Thunderstorms with hail and gusty winds are currently moving through Eastern Iowa. These storms will cross the Mississippi River by 2pm. Stay tuned to 13WREX for the latest severe weather info on the air, online, and on the blog! -ERIC

p.s. Don't forget to hit the hot-links on the right side of this page. There you'll find the buttons for watches and warnings. In most cases you'll get the watch/warning within a minute of its issuance.

When can I get outside?

If you are asking that question to yourself right now then take a look at the graphic to the left. Here is the scenario over the next 24 hours with this current rainmaker. This afternoon we will see a bit of a lull. We could see a light rain shower or two, but the real activity will start back up after midnight tonight.

The biggest threat from tonight's thunderstorms will be gusty winds and heavy downpours from time to time. The wet weather will likely continue into the morning hours on Thursday so keep those windshield wipers working for your morning commute. -ADAM

Are you ready for some spring storms?

Spring started at 7:07pm Tuesday and our spring storms aren't far away. Round #1 moves in by Wednesday morning on the nose of a warm front. Due to the nighttime nature of the storms, severe weather is unlikely with these. What is likely? Some brief heavy downpours. Some places could add up more than an inch by early afternoon (especially I-88 southward).

Round #2 of rain and thunder comes by Thursday morning with a cold front. These may be a little more potent. Having a day of high humidity and warm temperatures will give the atmosphere more to work with. There's a slight risk of severe with a moderate risk of some minor flooding. There could be another 3/4 to 1 inch of rain out of this activity.

Once the cold front moves through, things should be quiet from Thursday afternoon through Saturday. However an active pattern will continue from Saturday through Monday when more bouts with rain and thunder are expected. Five day rainfall totals may exceed the entire month's precip thus far. -ERIC

Party Hats and Noisemakers

7:07pm Tonight... That is when the celebration can begin. I know many folks that have been looking forward to this day for a long time. Yes, spring officially begins tonight at 7:07pm. I wouldn't be surprised if a few people actually use some noisemakers to mark the change of the season!

It appears as though Mother Nature will be taking the cue and ushering in a much more spring-like weather pattern starting tonight. Enjoy the warmup and watch out for the wet weather.

NOTICE: This has nothing to do with weather

Do you think you talk with an accent? I never thought I did until I moved from Rockford to Texas in 1999. But around here, I pretty much think everyone talks normal. Take this quiz and post a comment with your results. I was pretty shocked that it got me pegged! Here are my results:

What American accent do you have? Eric Sorensen: The Inland North You may think you speak "Standard English straight out of the dictionary" but when you step away from the Great Lakes you get asked annoying questions like "Are you from Wisconsin?" or "Are you from Chicago?" Chances are you call carbonated drinks "pop."
The Midland
The Northeast
Philadelphia
The South
The West
Boston
North Central
What American accent do you have? Quiz Created on GoToQuiz

We need you!

Do you have a really interesting job? If so, let us know about it! Candice King is ready to head out the door to show us the coolest, dirtiest, craziest workplaces in the area.

Watch as Candice plays DJ for a day and delivers the mail for you.

If you want her to do YOUR job, let us know! Send an e-mail right now!

So, when does spring start?

I have even asked myself this question this year. While many calendars say the start of spring is March 21st, others have said that it begins March 20th. So which one is right?

Well, this article should clear up any confusion you may have! -CANDY

Things to look forward to next week

There will be a few changes next week not only because it will be the beginning of spring, but also because there is a chance for rain and even a few thunderstorms.

A ridge of high pressure will build across the Great Lakes and Midwest towards the middle of the week and that will allow for a series of storm systems to track just to the west of the Stateline. Ahead of the systems, temperatures will rise into the lower 60s but the gulf will be wide open with the potential for a lot of moisture to stream into the Mississippi River Valley. Time will only tell, but I think next week could be a wet one! -CANDY

Quick Hitter Ahead

No, I am not talking about the Cubs or White Sox in spring training baseball. I am talking about a fast moving storm system that will be affecting us Sunday night. Due to the velocity of this clipper, it is not going to dump a major amount of precipitation on us. Most of the shower activity should actually be fairly light. The concern I have is the precipitation type. The air aloft will be fluctuating around the freezing mark. This reason alone should give us a mix of some light rain and snow. The wet weather should be out of the area by the morning commute on Monday.-ADAM

St. Patrick's Day Predictions...

Here it is: I feel like I am on a fairly sturdy limb by saying I expect to see a lot of green attire on Saturday to go with the blue skies overhead. On a temperature note, I predict many cold beverages to go with some cool air circulating around the area. Wind speeds should be quite light, making the wind chill inconsequential.

Enjoy the festivities and Happy St. Patrick's Day! -ADAM

NOAA releases its Spring Outlook

March 15-2007 - Scientists at NOAA highlighted near term flooding in portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley and continued drought in the Southwest as areas of concern from April through June in the agency's 2007 Spring Outlook. For the complete story, click here.

The outlook says "The upper Midwest is currently in the middle of its snowmelt. Warmer than normal temperatures in recent weeks have increased the risk of flooding due to ice jams over portions of eastern South Dakota, eastern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. In addition, high soil moisture over northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania and extreme southwestern New York state could lead to flooding if additional heavy precipitation occurs."

74° on Tuesday and 64° on Wednesday. When will it get warm again?

Are you ready for more spring weather? While it'll be quite cold over the next few days (and into the weekend) another shot of really nice weather appears to be more likely for the latter half of next week. Take a look at the European Computer Model. It builds quite a ridge in the nation's heartland which would allow temperatures to surge into the 60s & 70s for much of the midwest. While that will be a nice change from the 40s we're dealing with now, the warmth will likely only last a few days. Wednesday and Thursday look stellar right now. -ERIC