EXCLUSIVE SEVERE WEATHER INFO

10:00pm - Gusty storms beginning to move into the Rockford Metro. While no severe weather warnings are in effect at this time, the initial gust of wind (at the onset of the storms) could be near 55-60mph causing some tree branches to fall along with dangerous lightning. Remain indoors, away from windows until the storms pass.

9:00pm - A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING has been issued for Carroll and Whiteside County until 10pm. Winds near 60 mph are possible.

The atmosphere across the Stateline will be getting a little noisy tonight. As of 8:25pm, a line of showers and thunderstorms are stretching north to south along the Mississippi River. This line of activity should reach Winnebago County around 11pm. Brief downpours and gusty winds are quite likely under some of the stronger thunderstorms. I expect the wet weather to end before sunrise Monday morning. -ADAM

One extreme to the other!

As we blogged earlier this month, August 2007 broke a record for the wettest month on record here in Rockford. September has taken us on a 180° turn. We've been extremely dry and warm. In fact, so far this month, 22 of the 29 days have been warmer than average. Back on the week of the ninth, we thought that autumn was here to stay. Boy were we wrong about that! After that frosty Saturday morning on the 15th, we made it to 90° three more times. Almost unprecedented for this time of year!

We'll remain above normal for a week...but when do you think the cool weather will finally get here?

Hurricane Lorenzo: Short Lifespan

Tropical Storm Lorenzo gained Category 1 hurricane status on Thursday with top sustained winds of 75mph.

Lorenzo will move inland on Friday causing some damage to coastal towns of Mexico. This system will diminish upon landfall and will be little/no threat for Texas and the US mainland. -ERIC

Fun Fact

This morning I threw an "80" on the seven day outlook for Sunday's high temperature. Then I started thinking about how often we typically break the 80 degree mark this late in the year. After some digging, I found out the last day of each year that we hit 80 degrees and averaged it out over the past decade. It isn't a huge sample, but the past ten years should suffice for this purpose. I found out that our average last 80 degree day has occurred around October 5th. This means that the summer heat is usually gone by the first week of October.

The majority of the first week of October should hold above average temperatures. We might be able to hit the 80 degree mark a couple more times before all is said and done. -ADAM

Harvest Moon Tonight

How many moons does Earth have? Let's count:

The Wolf Moon, the Snow Moon, the Worm Moon, the Pink Moon, the Flower Moon, the Strawberry Moon, the Buck Moon, the Sturgeon Moon, the Harvest Moon, the Hunter's Moon, the Beaver Moon, and the Cold Moon.

Twelve.

Actually, we have one...but tonight's full moon is the Harvest Moon. If you get a chance, get out there and enjoy all of the moonlight!

Shades of autumn seen from space!

A special thanks to the UW-Madison Satellite Blog
for this animated photo. (If it doesn't animate, just click on it.) It's fascinating to see how the forest green colors of Northern Wisconsin change into browns and oranges.

Even though our trees haven't switched colors yet, can you guess why think the colors change so much in Northeastern Iowa and Southern Wisconsin? If you thought "corn" you thought right! The majority of land in these parts is covered with cornfields. The corn plants lost their green color in early September, revealing the orange color seen from space.

September Rain Recap

After a record breaking rainfall month in August, September has had a significant turnaround in the drier direction. During the first 24 days of the month we received less than 3/4 of an inch of rain. We quickly saw that amount and more in a short time span yesterday. Approximately 75% of yesterday's 0.87" of rain fell during the microburst storm that moved over the Rockford Airport rain gauge around 2pm. We can combine those two totals and it still sets us well below average for rainfall for the month of September. This month we are almost an inch and a half behind the norm. There are only 5 days left in September and it looks like at least 4 of them will be completely dry. -ADAM

Today's Storm Analysis

Between 1:40 and 2:00pm this afternoon, a severe thunderstorm produced widespread damage in a narrow swath of Rockford.

At 1:37pm a severe thunderstorm developed southwest of Rockford. The bright pink color indicates a significant hail core. (A hail core is an area within the thunderstorm where intense lift creates a significant amount of hail...and sometimes very large hailstones). We didn't receive any reports from this area...probably because the area is pretty rural.


At 1:41, the hail core abruptly went away. Where did it go? We all know the saying "what goes up must come down." At 1:41pm, the hail core was falling out of the cloud. The core was probably about 7 miles tall and 2 miles wide. Imagine all of this air coming straight down to the ground. As the wind hits the ground it is sent out in a forward direction. In this case, it headed east-northeast. The first areas to be hit were around the South Rock Industrial Park at IL2 and Hwy 20 where several trees were snapped off. The Aldrich family lost numerous trees and a few power poles at the 3000 block of Clarine Lane (right behind Bing's Drive-In).

Seven minutes later, the storm was producing severe damage on the other side of the Rock River along Brooke Road and on 9th Street in Southeast Rockford. A large tree fell at the end of 6th Street (at 23rd Av). Another tree fell on a car in the 3000 block of 9th as well as numerous trees falling on power lines in the neighborhood sending more people into the dark. This storm was so localized, it didn't even produce significant wind at the Chicago/Rockford Int'l Airport (just two miles south).

1:56pm - It's been nearly ten minutes since the hail core dropped over far SW Rockford. The wind gust is beginning to fan outward and diminish as it moves northeast. The Rockford Register Star reports that at this time scaffolding equipment at OSF Saint Anthony Hospital on East State Street. While the initial wind gust may have been near 80mph when it first formed, it was probably down to around 40-50mph in fifteen minutes...only to weaken more as it headed into the city's far east side.

EXCLUSIVE SEVERE WEATHER INFO

3:15pm - Chicago/O'Hare Int'l Airport reporting delays over one hour....delays increasing.

3:10pm - Storms winding down. One last shower/storm will move through Roscoe and South Beloit through 3:30pm.

3:09pm - Marengo [Mchenry Co, IL] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 02:20 PM CDT -- tree down in marengo

3:00pm - Rockford area: power outages numerous on the east side. Traffic signals out at Perryville and Newburg. Harrison and 9th. Harrison and 11th. Tree down at Brooke Road and Saner Av. on Rockford's south side.

2:38pm - Thank you for your weather reports/comments. I have relayed them to the National Weather Service Chicago office. -ES

2:25pm Severe storm threat has diminished across Winnebago, Lee, Ogle, and Boone County. Storms will continue to push through DeKalb and McHenry County through 3:15pm. Storms will have a potential to produce damaging straight line winds. -ES

2:23pm Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports TSTM WND DMG at 02:05 PM CDT -- 1 1/2 foot diameter tree down in rockford on 23rd ave and 6th st

2:23pm Belvidere [Boone Co, IL] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 02:15 PM CDT -- 2 small trees down from sheriff

2:09pm expires Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Ogle, Winnebago [IL]

2:04pm Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Boone [IL] till 2:30 PM CDT

1:55pm Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Ogle and Winnebago until 2:15pm.

A Damp & Dreary Day

The month of September has been so dry that it is a actually a welcome sight to see the radar scans lighting up a bit today. Showers and storms will continue intermittently through sunset tonight. That is when I expect the wet weather to taper off. A slight risk of severe weather exists for our friends southeast of Winnebago County, but for our viewing area we should just be sticking with some general rainfall this afternoon. Take a look at the Microcast image to the right. You can easily determine where the thunderstorms will form and where the showers will form. Thunderstorm activity can produce downpours in short periods of time, while showers must occur for many consecutive hours to reach the same rainfall totals. Needless to say, the soggiest areas on this Tuesday will be over eastern Illinois, northern Indiana, and southern Michigan. -ADAM

NOAA Weather Radio Outage

A rare occurrence!

Thermometers in Rockford surged up to 92° on Monday. How rare is that? Going back to 1901 (when record-keeping began) there have only been 21 times that we've gotten to 90° in the fall season! The most recent time that's happened was back in 1997. So, if you thought today was rare, you were right!

By the way, the latest date we've ever gotten to 90° was October 6, 1963.

Record high temperature tied today

Temperatures surged to 92° on the nose of gusty southwest winds. That 92° ties an 87 year old record! 90s are very rare in the autumn months. In fact, before today, it had only happened 21 times.

What do you think about this steamy weather? Take it or leave it?

Rain in the Offing?

Our rain chances this morning are very low, but they will be rising here shortly. Right now a cold front is slowly sweeping through the Dakotas, and kicking up a few showers as it moves east. We will be well ahead of the front, which means we will be well ahead of the area with the greatest instability. One or two storms are possible this afternoon, but I would expect the majority of the viewing area to stay dry today. Tonight three or four storms are possible, but again the activity will remain very spotty. The cold front will cross the Stateline during the daytime hours tomorrow. Due to this factor, I am expecting the wettest time frame to lie between sunrise and sunset on Tuesday. On the backside of this rainmaker is a significantly cooler and drier airmass. This will send our rain chances way down, and cause us to be able to bask in some very comfortable weather. -ADAM

Midwest Fall Foliage Report

You've probably noticed a few more yellow and orange trees in the Stateline. As temperatures cool and sunlight gradually fades, the leaves will change into their brilliant oranges and reds. Some areas along Lake Superior are nearing their peak colors! We will continue to monitor fall's progress right here on the blog.

Have a great weekend!

Welcome to Autumn!

The Autumnal Equinox will occur at 4:51am Sunday morning. On Sunday, there will be 12 hours of daylight and 12 hours of night. After Sunday we start gaining an over-balanace of nighttime minutes...losing precious daylight until the winter solstice arrives on December 22nd.

Friday Night Lights (Mother Nature's version)

9:55pm - This event is over with. Our next chance of thunderstorms comes on Monday. Thanks everybody for your reports!!! -ERIC

9:05pm - Chicago/Rockford Int'l Airport registered a 32mph sustained wind with 53mph gust with the line of storms. NWS receiving some reports of tree branches down in NE Rockford.

9:00pm - Storms are winding down. Lightning strikes are becoming fewer and fewer.

8:22pm - Non-severe wind gusts of 30mph can be expected as the thunderstorms near from the west. The strongest storms appear to be over Rock County, WI right now.

8:08pm - From the 13News Sports Department: Pearl City vs. Dakota, IL has been called due to lightning.

7:57pm - Storms are moving into the metro area at 8:00pm. Some cloud-to-ground lightning strikes have been observed with the storms with wind gusts to 40mph. Stay indoors as these storms approach.

Severe weather is not anticipated at this time. -ERIC

Moderate risk of severe for Wisconsin!

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the outlook for severe weather this afternoon and evening. There is a moderate risk of severe weather from the UP of Michigan down to Madison. Northern Illinois is in the slight risk, but storms should be weakening as they cross the Mississippi River by 9pm. We'll have to wait and see what develops out in Iowa this evening before we sound any alarms.

Unusual cloud formation

This picture was taken by Tim Pederson while on a flight over the Pacific Ocean. He says "I was wondering if you could explain the dome over the cloud. I have never seen that before."

First of all Tim, the large cloud with the cauliflower top is a cumulus (cumulonimbus if there's rain being produced out the bottom...which it probably is.) The little dome on top is called a pileus cloud (pī'lē-əs). Pileus clouds often form on top of cumulus and indicate strong updrafts iwithin the cloud mass. You can almost picture the main cloud rising so rapidly that it is pushing the remaining moisture (pileus) in the clear-air right up against the top of the atmosphere. Tim, I am glad you caught a glimpse of it because pileus clouds don't usually last long. This cloud was probably only around for a few minutes at most.

Thanks for sending it in!

Wisconsin Fall Color Report

Fall color is really starting to take shape across Wisconsin. Areas around Mercer and Phillips, are past peak, but the vibrant reds and oranges are becoming more common in the Northwoods.

If you have any fall-color pictures, please send them along by clicking here.

Where's the rain?

August brought Rockford its second major flood in less than a year, but September has been anything but wet. At the Chicago/Rockford Int'l Airport only 0.63" of rainfall has fallen this month. That gives us a monthly deficit of more than an inch and a half!

Things may change Jerry's help. Who's Jerry you ask? The Gulf of Mexico may give birth to Tropical Storm Jerry on Thursday. If this storm heads west toward the Louisiana coast by this weekend, tropical moisture will be transported northward into the Middle Mississippi River Valley...and Northern Illinois. Did you catch the word "if" though? We still have to wait for this thing to develop. Once it does so, our computer models will pick up on it...and let us know it's affect on our weather.

Right now, we wait and see. What's certain: This hurricane season has seen some storms strengthen very rapidly. Let's hope Jerry doesn't do any more harm to New Orleans and the state of Louisiana.

Official Football Forecast

We are your official source for Friday Night Football weather! Just click on the logo to get the forecast for your home team's big game.

Any predictions on the big winners? Can you predict the correct score? Post a comment and see!

Last summer weekend approaches

Autumn officially begins Sunday morning at 4:51. But if you go outside early Sunday you're likely to feel temperatures anything but fall-like. Temperatures are expected to once again make it into the 80s. The majority of September days so far have been warmer than average. However, things will be changing next week as a series of cool fronts move into the Upper Midwest from Canada. With the cool weather looming, we've posted a new poll-question on our blog. When do you think we'll get down to 32°? I'll give you a clue: The statistical average is October 19th.

The average high and low temperatures for Sunday is 72° and 49°. The record high for the date is 92° set in 1937. The record low is 29° set in 1974.

Cobwebs in the Rain Gauges

Many area rain gauges are going to continue to collect dust and have cobwebs grow in them. Last night we saw a couple of isolated showers, which amounted to mere trace amounts of rain. The showers were fairly strong over Iowa, but once they veered away from the jet stream they lost their upper level support and quickly fell apart. The storm track (jet stream) is well to the north of us today, and will stay well away from us for quite some time. Due to this highway of energy in the atmosphere being so far from us, we won't run into any significant rainmakers anytime in the near future.

The jet stream also acts as a separator between cool and warm airmasses. The fall-like weather will be confined to the western half of the country and Canada, while we sit in the summer-like weather through the beginning of the next work week. This weekend should give us at least one more great weekend to do some boating on the Rock River or up on Lake Geneva! -ADAM

Summer 2007: 22nd warmest in Rockford history

Before we discuss the climate of Summer 2007, let's get through the difference between weather and climate. Weather is the state of the atmospheric conditions at any given place and time. Climate is the average weather pattern in a given place over many years. For instance, the weather today brought 62 to 90° temperatures. However the climatic average is 51 and 73°. Note: Even though a weather record low may be broken, the climate may still be warming. Vice-versa, if a record high is broken, the climate may still be cooling long-term. Got it?














Tuesday's 90° high temperature in Rockford comes just a three days off of a record 35° record low! But even with the record low temperature, it didn't even make a dent in this very warm month (so far). Take a look at the graphics above. The graph on the left shows the average temperatures observed for each month since June 1 (including the first 18 days of September) in yellow. The long-term average temperatures are shown in green. Albeit small in July, each month of this summer was warmer than average. Even though our summertime climate was warmer than average, it's not as warm as it's ever been. This summer is the 22nd warmest in the past 101 years.

While those statistics may not trip your trigger, these just might. I found that six of the past seven summers have seen above-average temperatures! The only "cool" summer was in 2004 when the average temperature for the summer was 68.0°.

We want to know what you think of these warm summers! Click on the comment below to submit your thoughts. -ERIC

Wet for our Neighbors

Our neighbors to the west are in for some stormy weather on this Tuesday. A cold front currently located from Duluth to Minneapolis to Omaha is kicking up numerous showers and a few thunderstorms over a large cross section of the upper Midwest. This general area is under a slight risk of severe weather, but some thick cloud cover is keeping temperatures down a bit. Additional daytime heating may in fact be needed to spark a couple severe thunderstorms. I would expect this event to produce some isolated cases of severe weather, but I wouldn't expect a widespread outbreak. The main threat will come from damaging winds if a squall line begins to congeal.

For us ahead of this front, we will continue to feel the influx of heat and moisture off of the Gulf of Mexico. Winds will continue to gust to near 25 mph out of the south this afternoon, which might actually feel good since heat indices will be jumping into the low 90s. -ADAM

Top 10 Weather Songs of the 1990s

Sept 13: Okay, I caved and put the November Rain video on. When we started the weather blog a year ago, I never thought that an Axl Rose video would make it on here. :)

10. Steal My Sunshine (Len) 1999
9. Sunburn (Fuel) 1999
8. Only Happen when it Rains (Garbage) 1996
7. Lightning Crashes (Live) 1995
6. Black Hole Sun (Soundgarden) 1994
5. No Rain (Blind Melon) 1993
4. Rain (Madonna) 1992
3. Don't Let the Sun Go Down on Me (George Michael/Elton John) 1991
2. I Wish It Would Rain Down (Phil Collins) 1990

1. November Rain (Guns n Roses) 1991


Do you have any favorite weather songs? Post a comment and I may post the video from the most requested weather song. I think I was a radio DJ in a previous life. -ERIC

Very Few Summer Storms

We certainly have some summertime warmth reappearing across the Stateline, but it doesn't look like we will run into many summer storms. There are several factors that are aiding in this thought. The trigger mechanism, or cold front, is still hung up in the Dakotas and central Nebraska. It will certainly spark some showers and thunderstorms today, but the area with the most activity will be over portions of Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska.

This slow moving cold front will be draped along a line from Duluth to Minneapolis to Omaha on Tuesday. The moisture gradient ahead of this front is pretty steep. Right along it dew points are hovering in the upper 60s, but here across the Stateline we'll still be sitting in the upper 50s. With the moisture field being so narrow, most of the storms will form right along the frontal boundary. This means that during the daytime hours Tuesday you should be safe for that round of golf. Think of the atmosphere as a road. The left lane (yellow) will be the path that the storms follow on Tuesday, while the right lane (green) remains very warm and dry. -ADAM

Sunday at Soldier Field

If you are headed to Soldier Field on Sunday to watch the Bears take on the Chiefs, here is what you need to know. The game is a later start at 3pm, which is typically around the time the daytime high temperature is reached. Highs tomorrow in Chicago will rise into the upper 60s. That is slightly below average for this time of year so you might want to wear long sleeves under that Bears jersey. We should see more sunshine than clouds. I would call it about a 70% sun, 30% clouds ratio. Winds will be light all afternoon. With conditions like these, if Rex Grossman plays poorly he won't be able to blame it on the weather!

That is my weather prediction. Now for a score prediction. I will take the Bears winning the home opener over the Chiefs by a score of 27-9. Let me hear your prediction! -ADAM

Going from heat to A/C in just a few days?

The graphic to the left shows the record high and low temperatures for September 15th to September 21st. The second graphic shows how my 7-day forecast compares to those records. It appears we'll shatter the record for early Saturday with a forecast low of 33°. What's so interesting is the fact that we go from unprecedented cold to near-record warmth! High temperatures on Wednesday of next week will be in the 85-90° territory...just a few degrees from record highs! -ERIC

A Freeze Warning is in effect for Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll, and Whiteside County through early Saturday morning. This includes areas such as: Freeport, Lena, Pearl City, Stockton, Galena, Hanover, Savanna, Mount Carroll, Shannon, Lanark, Sterling, and Rock Falls.

A Frost Advisory is in effect for Green, Rock, Winnebago, Ogle, and Lee County through early Saturday morning. This includes areas such as: Monroe, Brodhead, Beloit, Janesville, Roscoe, Rockton, Rockford, Winnebago, Pecatonica, Rochelle, Byron, Oregon, Dixon, and Amboy.

Cover all sensitive plants with cardboard boxes or bed-sheets as temperatures are expected to reach sub-freezing tempreatures in the Freeze Warning area. Temperatures of 32-37° are expected in the Frost Advisory area.

Frost Potential is High

Put together a cold Canadian airmass, light winds, and clear skies and what do you get? Possibly an early season frost across the Stateline. I am expecting lows to drop into the mid 30s in Winnebago County with the rural areas falling into the low 30s. Regardless of where you live, if you have plants or flowers that you appreciate you might want to cover them up or bring them indoors just to be on the safe side! -ADAM