Wayyyyyy back when, I talked about ensemble computer models (click here to jog your memory). They've been doing a pretty good job handling our temperature trends recently... which isn't good news if you're looking for warm weather.
This is the temperature anomaly (essentially, a measure of how much warmer or colder than average) for Tuesday, November 18. We're firmly in the "-8" region. I don't need to go in-depth to tell you that a map with lots of blue and a negative number translates to "pretty cold." This has been showing up for at least the past couple of days, so I have increasing confidence that we'll be experiencing yet another arctic surge in about 10 days. I wouldn't be surprised to see highs having trouble climbing even into the 30s.
I guess I better go dig out my hat, gloves, and winter coat...
Sunday, November 09, 2008
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6 comments:
I take it that is -8 C below average...
Dang, I knew I should have paid more attention in school when they were talking about those celsius/ farenheit (sp?) conversions! And spelling class.
Is that saying that our high may only be about 26 degrees (F)?
Bleh.
I think to convert to Farenheit you multiply the celcius temperature by 9/5... there might be something else you're supposed to do, but I dont remember very well.
It was bugging me so I googled it. Also add 32 to the temperature
I think in this case -8 means 8 Fahrenheit below normal.
I might be incorrect, but I think the values represent standard deviations... i.e. -8 would be eight standard deviations below the norm. I'll check on that...
Okay, from what I can tell, it's departure from normal in Celsius.
However, the conventional Celsius-to-Fahrenheit won't be super helpful in this situation. An easy thing to remember is that a 10-degree Celsius change is an 18-degree Fahrenheit change.
So, if my assumption in the previous paragraph is correct... if our anomaly is -5, that would mean 9 Fahrenheit degrees below normal. There are other factors that would raise or lower that, though.
Granted, this is something that's a ways out there... we just have to get through this week's complicated forecast!
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