'Tis the season

As far as I'm concerned, winter is here. Our computer models are doing the same dance that they were doing last winter, making forecasting any significant weather systems pretty complicated.

We originally had in a chance of rain and snow on Veterans Day. I decided to delay the precipitation onset until Wednesday, based on current model trends and the tendency for our weathermakers to take longer to get here than what's originally advertised. While I still need a few more model runs to say this with confidence, but it may be the case that Wednesday is still too early to have precip on the 7-Day.

In fact, two consecutive model runs from just today offer two very different solutions to our weather situation later in the week. The GFS computer model that was done at 6am (first image) skirts us with a couple of systems, but without anything of particular consequence happening until another dump of cold air next weekend. The model that was done at noon (second image), on the other hand, causes a very well-developed low pressure to affect us Friday - in fact, it gives us what could be snow with minor accumulations.

I'm not going to buy into the model run that was done at noon - yet. It's a vastly different scenario than what has been showing up, the various models we look at aren't showing a similar scenario, and the models that are done at midnight and noon tend to not perform as well.

I'm hoping the forecast for the upcoming becomes more clear by tomorrow... but right now, it looks to be generally cool with slight shower/flurry chances from Wednesday on.