Monday, December 01, 2008

Keep the snowblowers gassed up!

9:45pm update - Latest computer models are getting a little robust with the snow for Wednesday! This evening's run of the North American computer model is giving us 0.28 inches of liquid. This snow will probably not have as much water content as Sunday's snow meaning it won't take as much water in the snow to pile up. This snow will probably have a 14:1 ratio of snow to water meaning if you take 0.28 and multiply it by 14 you get 3.92 inches. Because this is getting on the higher side of my previous 2-4 inch forecast, I am going to go ahead and raise the expected snowfall one notch higher: 3-6 inches.

Here's a look at the forecast for snowfall from one on of our computer models concerning Wednesday's snow. This one won't be the wound-up storm like Sunday/Monday's, but it still will be one that causes the snowplows to head out and the snowblowers/shovels to come out of the garages. Everything I look at now suggests 2-3 inches, so will throw out a range of 2-4 inches to be on the safe side. Word of caution: This has a higher chance of going down to 1-3 versus being upped to 3-6.

Below are the 13WREX snowfall forecast ranges. Kids have been known to use this to decide whether to do homework. My advice: kids should get the homework done early so there's more time to play in the snow.

1-3 inches (just enough for a snowball fight)
2-4 inches (some rural schools delay classes)
3-6 inches (some rural and city schools delay classes)
4-8 inches (most schools delay classes, some close)
6-12 inches (most schools close)
12 inches + (all schools close)

8 comments:

tony said...

hey eric, did you say there is a chance that the total may be upped to 3-6 versus 1-3, or did i hear it wrong because I noticed on this post that is says there is a higher chance of it being lower than higher. I just wonder if this is a precursor of a major snowstorm in the weeks to come.

Eric Sorensen said...

Tony: I make the forecasts as we see the data. More data will allow us to have more confidence in the forecast. -ES

tony said...

Cool, you are the best and I trust 13 weather teams forecasts more than anyone else. You, justin and adam always hit the nail on the head with your forecasts. Is there any chance that the link for the models will reappear on the blog page.

Anonymous said...

Hey, 13 Weather Team!

So, this looks like it will double the amount of snow all ready on the ground, eh?

And, with increased snow cover, it will be harder to melt snow because temperatures will have a harder time getting warmer... which translates basically into more cold weather and snow, right?

--I can't remember the last time that I saw rain!

By the way, on Wednesday morning, will commutes and roads be impacted? Is this a delay/closing worthy storm?

It appears that all of the models are pointing to a large storm next Sunday/Monday. Which is sort of rare with as far out as it is in the extended... Any indication on how strong that might be?

And we have family coming in on Friday Night from Indiana... Will the weather be okay? They are leaving on Monday out of O'Hare.

Justin said...

Eric are the schools gonna close on wednesday?! What about saturday?! and monday?!

(Im kidding)

Eric Sorensen said...

just posted an update as new models are coming in. this snow will be a little bit fluffier than sunday's. will continue to monitor. -ES

tony said...

Also did you say this will be a day event. I work 7-3 that day so I wasn't sure if it would be bad possibly around 3pm.

Anonymous said...

3-6"

*Oohs and Aahs come from the crowd*

Do you foresee a significant impact on travel Wednesday morning?

Any idea where the snow will be the heaviest in the area?

(North, South, East, West?)