Update 12:45pm = Here is the latest liquid precipitation output from the HPC for Thursday at 6pm - Friday at 6pm.
Update 11:15am = I just sifted through the 12z data and very little has changed. The tightly wound low is still going to pass through northern Missouri and central Illinois. In regards to questions about precipitation type... with the onset of the event still 30+ hours away it is quite possible for the type to vary slightly. It still appears as though between 1-1.5" of liquid is going to fall from the sky. Regardless of whether that comes down as all snow or an icy concoction, the Stateline is going to be crippled.
Original Post = Having grown up in Minnesota we went to school through numerous snow storms and bitterly cold conditions. I tell you this, because I feel most activities can go on during most winter events. This should tell you that I do not throw words like this around often: I would be shocked if school isn't canceled Friday.A major storm system currently over the southwestern corner of the country is getting set to rumble our way. The timeframe for this massive amount of precipitation is setting up for late Thursday afternoon through lunchtime on Friday.
The 32° line could be setting up somewhere in northern Illinois. The exact location is still very difficult with this system so far away. At this distance, it appears southern Wisconsin should be cold enough for a mainly snow event. Those snowfall estimations are no joke. 6-12" of snow is a distinct possibility in Green, Rock, and Walworth County. The precipitation in northern Illinois is a bit trickier as we may be switching types several times. Freezing rain, sleet, and snow are all quite likely. Ice accumulations could easily amount to 0.25-0.50" which would wreak havoc on area power lines and tree branches. That amount of weight simply cannot be withstood. A situation like this could produce numerous power outages by Friday morning. Travel is going to be treacherous on Friday. Even though the skies turn dry by noon, the effects of this devastating storm could be felt for quite awhile. Between the weather team here, I am probably the most conservative forecaster. I rarely use verbiage like I have in this paragraph. This should tell you the severity of the situation. -ADAM
10 comments:
Now is there still a possibility that we could get just all snow. I hope it is all snow since it is easier to drive on all snow. Ice is impossible.
Is it just me or are the models catching on to the snow that fell yesterday...I think they keep inching it farther south with each run.
I will second Adam's statement that he's the most conservative forecaster among the three of us. I've actually told him numerous times that when he's concerned that a very serious weather situation is likely, that my confidence in such a scenario occurring skyrockets.
There's a fine line between letting people know that they need to prepare for a damaging storm system versus pumping it to the point of hype and fear. We hope to never cross the threshold into the latter. Trust us when we say that this looks like it's going to be bad... and do what you can do in the next day to be ready for it.
I agree with adam also. I looked at the GFS 12z run and it looks as if that model is keeping the freezing line just to the south of rockford, while the NAM still has the line just north of rockford. Unless I am looking at the wrong thing. I have a feeling tonight at walmart people are going to buying ice melt up the cahoods. I pray with everything we just get heavy snow from this and not a crippling ice storm.
i work at wal-mart and i work outside! it going to be a dangerous job for me tommrow!
From what I read on the NWS website, they are saying that the low might track a bit further south, which is what I am hoping so we would get more of a heavy snow, instead of major icing. Like justin said, either way you look at it, it may be a major mess here. And it was 21 years ago that we have a winter storm with wind gusts to 90 mph around here and thundersnow. I was in 6th grade and everything was shut down.
Any remote chance of this mostly being just rain?
Well I have to work at 3 so I will have to read the updates when I get home after 10 and my tv will be set to 13 so I can rewind through the weather and listen to it.
Justin - extremely, extremely remote chance. Don't bet on it.
u guys should tell views tongiht to have flashlights and things like that ready for tommrow's storm! if in fact its going to be a ice storm, lets hope that changes!
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