Monday, December 15, 2008

Three big weather events in one week.

11:00pm update - The evening computer models just came in. There's really no change to report with either the snow event (Tuesday) and the ice potential (Thursday). It seems pretty likely that all areas will receive 3 inches of snowfall for Tuesday. It should begin around 2pm and end Wednesday morning around 3am. As soon as this is over, headlines will go up for Thursday's mess. One model is giving us rain and sleet...another goes from a wintry mix to a few inches of snow in the predawn hours of Friday. Our focus will remain on our immediate snow with more analysis of Thursday's event coming as we walk this snow out. -ES

Event #1
Snow will pile up between 3 and 6 inches Tuesday afternoon and night. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for this event which will conclude by midnight. Due to the cold airmass, this will be a very fluffy snow and should be easier to move around (compared to previous events).

Event #2
I can't talk about this event with nearly as much certainty. While tomorrow's snow is a near certainty, this is highly subject to change. However we need to talk as its impact may be quite severe. Right now we know that the timing of this system will be Thursday night/early Friday. More moisture will be available versus Event #1. However temperatures won't be as cold, thus snow wouldn't fluff up nearly as much. Having said that, this event may not come with any snow at all! Our forecast will continue with ice wording as temperatures will likely be near freezing here at the surface with areas above us to 10,000 feet above freezing. This would yield a sizeable ice storm with significant ice accumulations. This system has not made it to the Pacific coast...and a lot of data will be ingested into the models once it comes ashore, giving us a better, more reliable track.

Event #3
Global weather models are developing a significant cold front with attending cold-dump from interior Canada sometime Saturday evening. I have kept forecast highs in the single digits with double digit negative lows for Monday. As confidence builds in this forecast we may need to lower both the highs and lows for Sunday and Monday. Winter officially begins on Monday.

1 comment:

tony said...

Now eric as far as sun and mondays temps, is there a chance that highs may stay below zero and lows could get to -15 or lower, or is that pushing it a little. And as far as thursday into friday, I sure hope the storm moves further south for more snow, and not the track you are saying that would give us a crippling ice storm.