Trained spotter, Scott Nolan, in Freeport reports 2.5" of snow.
10:35pm - Areas of freezing drizzle will continue for another hour. It will be interesting to see if this little layer of ice on top of the snow will keep any of the snow in place once the 30+ mph wind gets here after midnight. With that being unknown, the NWS will keep Blizzard Warning going for the overnight. Most definitely, the rural roads will be very bad overnight.
Models are pretty robust with Wednesday's snow averaging 0.40" of liquid. Using a 20:1 ratio with this snow yields a potential 8 inch snow. Headlines will likely go up sometime Tuesday. A Blizzard Watch is already in effect for the Rockford metro for Wednesday's snow as it will come with an ample supply of wind Wednesday night.
(8:08:31 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Woodstock [Mchenry Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M1.0 INCH at 08:00 PM CST --
6:34pm - The Storm Prediction Center has issued a short-term hazardous outlook for blizzard conditions that will develop within the next few hours. Utilize your time this evening to get your errands and necessary travel completed. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly by 9pm tonight. To read the entire outlook, click here.(6:00:13 PM) nwsbot: DVN: Fulton [Whiteside Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of E2.0 INCH at 05:59 PM CST -- snow depth 8 inches.
5:20pm: Getting reports from parts of eastern Iowa of light freezing drizzle after the snow has stopped.
(4:41:02 PM) nwsbot: DVN: Mount Carroll [Carroll Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.8 INCH at 04:40 PM CST --
(4:54:26 PM) nwsbot: DVN: 3 Se Galena [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.2 INCH at 04:45 PM CST --
Potentially dangerous weather this week...Tonight, blizzard conditions are possible across the entire viewing area. While snowfall totals will be reasonably light in the 2-4" range, the snow will be very fluffy. Winds of 20-30mph with higher gusts will blow that snow around, creating near whiteout conditions. Starting late this evening, travel will be extremely treacherous and is not advised. In addition, wind chills will drop into the -20s overnight. Frostbite on exposed skin will occur in less than 15 minutes. Please, do not try to venture outdoors overnight tonight.
The image on this post describes the criteria for a blizzard.
By tomorrow morning, our winds will subside a little. However, rural roadways will still likely be hazardous due to continued blowing snow. The morning commute doesn't look like it's going to be an easy one. In addition, temperatures will remain steady or fall through the day, down into the single digits below zero. Despite sunshine, it will be a bitterly cold day with wind chills still well below zero.
Another strong Alberta Clipper will swing through the region on Wednesday. This has the potential to bring us snow totals of at least 3-6". And just like tonight's system, strong winds are possible on the backside of this one... so another blizzard situation is possible Wednesday.
For Thursday and Friday... a brutally cold airmass will settle into the Stateline. Thursday's forecast low is -8, forecast high -1. Friday morning will be extremely frigid with lows from -20 to -25 along the Illinois/Wisconsin border. (For what it's worth, the all-time record low in Rockford is -27.)
Those of you who remember the arctic outbreak in late January/early February of 1996... this is the closest we have gotten to that situation since then.
Take your blizzard and cold air precautions as soon as possible. Make sure you have emergency kits in your vehicle and home. Wrap your pipes with insulation to prevent bursting. Do not leave pets outdoors.
To reiterate... blizzard or near-blizzard conditions tonight. Residual blowing snow tomorrow, especially in the morning. Bitterly cold with afternoon temperatures below zero. Significant snow on Wednesday, perhaps another blizzard. Dangerous and near-record cold for Thursday and Friday.
24 comments:
You know, I don't really recall the arctic outbreak in 1996, but this is as bad as I can ever recall. That -22 on the 7-day just blows my mind away. Also if people can, remember to fill your gas tanks and put heet in it to prevent gas line freeze. Eric, justin and adam, you are all the #1team in rockford and you all do such a superb job keeping us up to date on this blog. Stay warm and safe everyone.
I have strong memories of the 1996 arctic outbreak --it was my first winter in Rockford. I was living in an apartment at the time, without a garage, and my brand new car wouldn't start. In my traumatic memory, I'm sure it was at least 4 solid weeks where the temperatures never got above negative 25 :-)
What I really remember, though, is how the box-elder bugs in my windows still didn't die!
The arctic outbreak in '96 had at least 120, potentially up to 124 hours, in which the temperature did not rise above zero at Rockford.
Fortunately, this particular go-around will not be *that* horrible... but it still will not be something to take lightly.
I happen to be off on Thursday and Friday... although I think I'll have to brave the cold to start my car for a few minutes just to keep it from getting angry.
We are having my husband's grandmother stay with us for the week because we have a fireplace and she doesn't just in case. It was your report that convinced her to come up this morning so THANKS!!!
maybe live chat later??
Is this dry slot I see coming behind the heavier band going to only last a little while, or will it fill in quickly.
Not a dry slot. The snow was only expected to last a handful of hours.
I drove back from Madison -> Beloit at 4:00 and it really was not bad. It was snowing lightly but the pavement was dry, it was not slick (yet) and the wind was not blowing any snow around (yet).
My thought: if you have to go somewhere, do it soon.
Oh ok justin, thanks. I was just getting the assumption from the forecast this snow would last most of the night. Now on thursday night-friday morning, will there be a bitter wind chill along with the -22 low, or will it be calm that night.
Heh heh. I remember the arctic outbreak of 1996. I came up here from Kentucky for a job interview during that arctic outbreak, and darn near decided to stay in Kentucky!
One more thought re. emergency kits: For the first time I (finally) have a real full-fledged cold weather emergency survival kit in my car (including blankets, arctic sleeping bag, protein snacks, sand, shovel, ice-melt, dry socks, hat and gloves, 2 pieces of strong plywood, a first aid kit & a car charger for my cell phone). I was always kind of laid-back about a car emergency kit before ... but these days I spend enough of my life on the road that I figured I'd better get serious about it.
I strongly recommend it. Another advantage of having those things on hand is that you can help somebody else if you come across an accident scene ... and its really not difficult or expensive to sock away a pretty good emergency kit in the cargo area or trunk.
Yep, 1996 was my senior year in high school, and I totally remember all three of the family cars freezing up after the -25 air temp lows. School was closed for a lot of consecutive days, if I remember correctly.
I remember putting two of those gas heater things (that look like rockets, whatever they are called) up near the engine to warm it up, just to get the engine to turn.
I also remember getting up every three hours through the night at -25 degrees and turning on my car and taking it for a short drive, just to make sure it started for school/work.
Ugh, i am glad I have a garage now.
Eric, you mentioned on the news just now that we may break a record for the 'most intense high pressure' ever for our area.
What exactly does that mean? lol does that mean the air will be very dry and calm, and the barometric pressure will be very high?
just curious. ;)
Wi Weather Buff....where in KY are you from? We are from Western KY close to Paducah. My husband is from Louisville.
Momof2Cs: I only lived in Kentucky for 2 years (job) but I loved the state while I was there. I lived in Lexington.
Great advice WI Weather! Don't be caught without the stuff you'll need, right?
Jim: the higher the pressure, the denser the air. Sincerely, if we see a record high pressure we're that much more likely to get near that -27 all-time record low temperature.
Just recently changed over to all sleet near state and mulford
as of 8:30 pm are we done we accumulating snow. Is it time to go out and plow? thanks
Eric, what is the highest pressure that has ever been recorded here in rockford.
I had a pretty thick coat of ice on my car when I got off work. Will the rain reduce the chances of blowing snow? I want a snow day because of finals... haha
Actually justin, eric did say at the beginning of the newscast that the freezing drizzle could reduce the chance, depending on how much of it we get.
Freezing drizzle has put a crust on the ground snow around here in Polo, so not much chance of blowing snow!
Do you expect the blizzard warning to be cancelled, or will there still be whiteout conditions?
I left work at about 10:45 and also had a sheet of ice covering my "bus" as I affectionately call my trusty old suburban...it was only slightly drizziling with a stray flake here and there...can't wait to see what morning brings!! (brrrr)
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