Here is a look at the morning run of the GFS and NAM computer models. Since the NAM only goes out to Saturday evening, I took a few screen shots of both computer models valid at that time. What is interesting is how the GFS model is developing a closed area of low pressure over northern Kansas with widespread overrunning rain over much of the Great Lakes. The NAM model is slower to develop the low and in turn keeping the Great Lakes cooler and drier through Saturday evening. (Keep in mind that the 540 line is usually the rain/snow line).I am going to pay less attention to the GFS model in my afternoon analysis/forecast as I believe the GFS is developing this storm too soon and is bringing in too much warm air. Having said that, the NAM is getting a little warmer with each model run which would possibly lead to a more messy system versus a totally white one. Precipitation type (rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow), timing, and intensity will be refined in later forecasts and discussions. Another day will provide us with better consensus, especially since the NAM will yield a complete look at this storm. More to come this afternoon! -ERIC
8 comments:
I was wondering if you would have an update for us by the time your on at 5:10 pm.
by the way...I went to accu. weather and they said we would only get 1' to maybe 3' inches of snow is this true.
Knowing how rockfords luck around here, it probably would be rain. The weather channel is showing rain and 40 on sunday, but yet I trust their forecasts like a grain of salt. 13 news is the only station I trust. Somehow I have a feeling this wont a whopper of all whoppers. Hoepfully I am wrong.
And actually from the forecast discussions I have been reading, barring this is still 3 days out, sounds like it won't be all an snow event, sounds like it will be snow saturday night, change to rain, then rain all day sunday befroe changing back to snow before ending sunday night. But like I said, I will only trust 13 news. I just hope we can get a good snowstorm closer to christmas for a white xmas. Let's see what the models say tomorrow. Eric, adam and gretchen rock.
the weather channel is in Atlanta and they post weather around the nation.when it comes to weather it takes them till the last second to be right.other than in RKFD's weather stations are more up to date on the storms. and is better to forcast the midwest.They also say the temp is going to be to high while eric sorenson shows it being right around freezing.
I say snow in the afternoon on sat. mixing with freezing rain or sleet. than sat. nite will change from freezing rain to all snow. on sun.snow mixing with sleet or staying as snow.
Update completed Tyler! Definitely a complicated forecast (one that I'm still not too sure of). -ERIC
thanks for the update. To bad its a wintery mix.BUT that could change.Thats why weather is so exciting you never know till it's here.
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