We've been talking about the possible storm tracks for this weekend's storm for days now. Today, the models are beginning to converge on a solution that may take the center of low pressure very near the area Saturday night into Sunday (not a recipe for heavy snow here). So, here's what I'm thinking right now: Light snow will begin sometime on Saturday (and possibly accumulate a few inches) as temperatures are expected to be well below 32°. 
Snow will mix with sleet before changing to rain or freezing rain Saturday afternoon/evening. East of I-39 will be warmer than western sections so I've kind of put a cut-off along I-39 for FZRA west and RA east. The higher possibility of accumulating snow right now looks to stay west of the Mississippi River. As the entire system pushes northeast on Sunday we should be able to cool enough to change everything that's left over to snow with an inch or two possible.CAUTION: That's how it looks right now. I know it's easy to speculate on what we think we see in the models (and what we want to see) but this one is not a full-fledged snow event...not a total-rain event either. Precipitation type will be critical in determining the severity of the system and the impact it will have on travel.
I've probably gone through a hundred maps and models today and my confidence in this forecast is still only around 50%. Stay tuned.
11 comments:
Poor eric. All that work and the models will probably change. Does further south = more snow?
Further south: More snow
Further north: More rain
hey eric to bad it's a mix bag of precip. hope it changes to snow.have a good nite.
I'll see what tom skillings has for us on wgn news at 9.
Y'know, either rain or snow would be better than an ice storm. Ice accumulation can bring down trees, power lines, etc., and its nasty to drive on and even nastier to try to chip off the windshield of your car.
At this point I would prefer ice over rain, just for the fact that im so sick of the rain. But by coming back here a bunch of times a day is just going to annoy me because we know how much the track will change
Will there be an updated forecast for the 06z models, or are you going to wait until they become more consistent?
The 06z model runs aren't usually as accurate as the 12z and 00z runs. The 00z run of the GFS model came in and is now consistent with the NAM model which gives us snow to RA/FZRA to snow with a few inches of accumulation on either side. -ERIC
I just looked at the GFS slp/precip model on here and it looks like the low would go from southeast nebraska into central wisconsin and it looks like the red line, which i assume is warm air, is with thru the whole storm. would that just mean more rain than anything, or am i just not reading it right
Well like I said, I would love to have a big snow now, but in a way it would be only december 1st and I would rather see a huge snow happen about mid december to give us a better chance of a white xmas because last year we had all that snow and 2 weeks later it was gone.
looks like snow on saturday than rain for the rest of the storm. hope it changes,but still I would rather be here than in Chicago it seems there just gettin rain.
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